We might as well initiate the upset alert a few days early, just so there's nothing to catch us by surprise.

Team USA is supposed to go 3-0 in pool play to start the World Baseball Classic, but the Americans will face their toughest test right away — this Friday, March 8th, against Mexico at Chase Field in Phoenix.

Milwaukee Brewers All-Star Yovani Gallardo — who finished seventh in National League Cy Young Award voting two seasons ago — is on track to pitch for Mexico. Gallardo, who was born in Mexico but attended high school in Texas, is coming off four consecutive seasons with 200 or more strikeouts. And he’s never lost at Chase Field: 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts.

Toronto's R.A. Dickey is lined up to pitch for the US and the knuckleballer will have an easier assignment than Gallardo. Even though the United States is missing a number of big-name players, the American lineup is stacked with All-Stars. Mexico has one recent All-Star position player, Adrian Gonzalez, and one other big-league regular, Dodgers third baseman Luis Cruz.

So, Gonzalez will have minimal lineup protection. Of course, that hardly affected him when he posted a 36-homer, 119-RBI season for the last-place Padres in 2008.

(Obvious question: Should USA manager Joe Torre ensure that Gonzalez sees nothing to hit the entire game by pitching around him from the very beginning?)

While the game isn’t sold out at this point, the US-Mexico matchup should draw a boisterous crowd — and not necessarily a friendly one for the Americans. In fact, it won’t be a surprise if the attendance is split roughly 50-50 between American and Mexican fans, because of the Valley’s large Mexican-American population.

Brewers All-Star Yovani Gallardo starts for Mexico

Consider: When the US and Mexico soccer teams played a friendly at University of Phoenix Stadium in nearby Glendale, Arizona six years ago, the announced attendance was 62,462. Of the atmosphere that night, the veteran soccer reporter Ives Galarcep wrote: "There were American fans in attendance, proudly sporting their stars and stripes and Uncle Sam hats, but they were simply freckles in a canvas of green, outnumbered nearly four to one."

To the extent that history gives us an indication of what to expect, the US has split its only two WBC meetings with Mexico, both in 2006. In fact, Mexico eliminated USA from that tournament by a 2-1 score at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. The Americans managed only three hits — none after the fifth inning — despite a pitching matchup that seemed to favor them: Roger Clemens vs. Oliver Perez. (That was supposedly the last game of Clemens’ career. We should have known better.)

It’s important to note that a loss to Mexico next week wouldn’t necessarily ruin American hopes of reaching the WBC championship game for the first time. Two teams will move on from Pool D, so the US would have to lose to Mexico and Canada or Italy to be sent home after the first weekend. That is 16th-seed-in-the-Sweet-Sixteen unlikely.

My hunch — and it is only that — for Mexico’s rotation: Luis Mendoza (Royals) vs. Italy, Gallardo vs. the US, and Marco Estrada (Brewers) vs. Canada. Team Mexico manager Rick Renteria has 2 more options to start, in Phillies' Rodrigo Lopez and Boston’s Alfredo Aceves.

Mendoza has been an underrated contributor in Kansas City, going 8-10 with a 4.23 ERA in 166 innings last year. He’s known for keeping the ball on the ground, which will be crucial in the thin air. Mendoza received MVP honors for this winter’s Caribbean Series with 13-1/3 scoreless innings, so he’s earned the right to start the opener. Estrada, meanwhile, is coming off a career year with Milwaukee: 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA in 138.1 innings, not to mention a 4.93 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Also of note, Mexico’s bullpen includes two certifiable late-inning arms in Sergio Romo and David Hernandez, along with lefties Perez and Cesar Ramos. This should be one of the best pitching staffs in the tournament.