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 News from Around the Americas | January 2005 
Iraqi Voters Hand Bush His First Foreign Policy Victory of New Term
 Aileen McCabe - CanWest News Service
It was historic, it was bloody and - amazingly - the Iraqi election Sunday was more successful than anyone dared hope.
 Defiant Iraqis came out in unexpected numbers to vote for their first democratic assembly in half a century. And, in the process, they gave U.S. President George W. Bush his first foreign policy victory of his second term.
More importantly, the election turnout gave some credence to Bush's claim that if you draw a line from Afghanistan to the Palestinian territories, through Ukraine and into Iraq, a clear new picture emerges. "Freedom is on the march and the world is better for it," is how he described it Friday as he watched his new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sworn-in.
And when Rice hit the U.S. talk show circuit Sunday morning, she picked up on his theme. "What we are seeing here is the emergence of an Iraqi voice of freedom," Rice said.
Voter numbers in themselves cannot be the only indicator of a successful Iraqi election, however. How those numbers break down along ethnic and religious lines is also crucial to the future of Iraq.
It is obvious, for instance, that the Kurds came out in force in their autonomous zone in the north. After decades of oppression and slaughter under Saddam Hussein, they had everything to gain by voting some of their own into power.
But their impressive showing at the polls was also a timely reminder of how cohesive a force the Kurds have become in their own territory and how divisive they could be if their aspirations aren't recognized in the unified Iraqi federation the U.S. envisions.
The Shias, with the blessing, make that admonishment of the Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, also braved the threats of violence to vote in large numbers.
Iraq's majority population saw the ballot box as the way to claim its rightful place in the affairs of the nation after being shut out for so long by Saddam's favoured Sunnis.
It was the minority Sunnis, however, that people fear stayed home from the polls in droves. While they represent only 20 per cent of the population, it is a powerful slice no matter how you cut it.
At the moment, Iraq's Sunnis are exercising their "power" by terrorizing their fellow citizens and the U.S. troops occupying their land. They are the insurgents who are killing soldiers, beheading foreigners and threatening ordinary Iraqis who dare co-operate with the Americans. They are the suicide bombers who are targeting soldiers and civilians alike.
But violence aside, their "power" lies in their numbers -- outside Iraq. Iraq's Sunnis have what is being called "strategic depth" in the Middle East.
Around the region, from Egypt to Jordan to Syria to Saudi Arabia, governments have an interest in keeping Sunnis in power in Iraq. Or, put another way, they are united in their desire not to see Iraq's Shia majority succeed.
They fear a Shia-dominated Iraq will provide an opening for the ayatollahs in Iran to expand their sphere of influence to the Tigris and beyond. More than that, they don't want to see a victory for Iraq's Shias give heart to their own growing Islamic fundamentalist populations.
For her part, Rice was playing down the impact of both the suspected low Sunni turnout and the implications of a strong Shia vote.
She said everyone knew Sunnis were too intimidated to vote and all parties would take that into account when forming the assembly.
She added that Shias had been oppressed for so long that "it's a good thing the Shia are turning out and that they are able to vote."
Rice also stated confidently that the forces of division highlighted in Sunday's polls will not succeed.
"I have worked with many Iraqis and they have emphasized that this is a country that knows how to overcome differences, that, in fact, Saddam Hussein's regime with its tyranny probably exacerbated differences," she said.
"The Shia and the leaders of those movements are also saying that Iraqis do not want a theocratic regime," Rice argued, predicting a government would emerge "to represent the interests of all Iraqis."
The Mideast teems with skeptics who will sneer at Rice's sunny optimism. But, after Iraq's election, they might have the grace to speak softly for a while. For a golden moment Sunday, at least, Bush's vision of a democratic Iraq seemed almost possible. |
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