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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | November 2005 
Favorite in Mexican Presidential Race Battles Against Pollsters
 S. Lynne Walker - Copley News Service
| | Former Mexico City lefist mayor and presidential candidate of the Democratic Revolution Party, Manuel Lopez Obrador participates in the 2005 National Convention of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico City, Tuesday Nov. 29, 2005. (AP/Eduardo Verdugo) |
Tlaquepaque, Mexico – Mexico's presidential race has dissolved into a battle over polls, with front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador going on the offensive after a recent public opinion survey showed him slipping from the lead.
López Obrador, the leftist former Mexico City mayor, lashed out at the Mexico City daily Reforma after the newspaper published a poll last week that showed him in a statistical tie with Felipe Calderón of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN.
Since, López Obrador's stump speeches have been tinged with anger. He strayed from his message about helping Mexico's poor and began denouncing the poll and Reforma, which he called a "press bulletin for the PAN."
"To hell with those polls," he shouted during a campaign stop Friday in Mexico state.
But the political tide turned back in his favor yesterday, when another Mexico City newspaper, El Universal, showed López Obrador with 34 percent, Calderón with 22 percent and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, with 18 percent.
A Parametria poll released Monday showed López Obrador with 36 percent to Madrazo's 30 percent, and 29 percent for Calderón.
In Mexico, polls are rarely heeded by the voting public, particularly this early in the presidential race. But López Obrador pushed the issue into the national stoplight by speaking about it at every campaign stop.
During a rally in the picturesque city of Tlaquepaque on Saturday, López Obrador called Reforma's pollsters "liars."
To emphasize his popularity, López Obrador plans a massive Dec. 10 rally in Mexico City's main plaza, where he will be officially anointed the presidential candidate for the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD. In Mexico City, where López Obrador's appeal remains high, his rallies have drawn crowds of more than 1 million.
López Obrador, who once enjoyed a double-digit lead over his closest opponent, is clearly stung by his decline in the polls, political analysts said.
"He has enjoyed a bed of roses in terms of poll results since shortly after he became mayor," said George Grayson, a Mexico scholar at the College of William & Mary who is writing a book on López Obrador. "All of a sudden, some thorns are appearing and he finds that politically uncomfortable."
Since the beginning of November, voters have been subjected to a flurry of polls, most showing López Obrador with a 5-point to 10-point lead. They have been split over which candidate is in second place, with some favoring Calderón and others indicating Madrazo is López Obrador's closest rival in the July 2 election.
"The fact that there's a dispute over this is just political," said Dan Lund, president of Mexico City-based Mund Americas, a marketing, research and public opinion firm. "Calderón is trying to make as much of it as he can to show that he really is the critical rival. And López Obrador is raising relatively legitimate questions about the partisanship of the newspaper."
"It's a little bit like the manager of the San Diego Padres going out every once in a while to jaw with the umpire," Lund said. "Basically, you don't change the umpire's opinion on that call, but you establish the fact that you're watching him and that you'd like him to make balanced calls in the future."
As López Obrador battles some pollsters in Mexico City, he is reaching out to voters in the countryside with his platform of rebuilding Mexico from the ground up.
Although he is not a dynamic speaker, he wins over listeners with his humble style and plain talk sprinkled with jokes that make even skeptics smile.
"For the good of everyone, first the poor," López Obrador told the crowd in Tlaquepaque, on the outskirts of Guadalajara. "That will be the theme of my campaign."
When he steps onto a podium, he speaks of measures that appeal to ordinary Mexicans.
He would slash his own salary as president, he promises the crowds, and he would cut the salaries of Supreme Court justices and congressional representatives. He would eliminate the wardrobe allowance for the president and his family. And he would live in the National Palace in Mexico City's main plaza, rather than the palatial presidential residence known as Los Pinos.
His strategy appears to be working. Even Reforma's poll showed López Obrador had fewer negatives than any other candidate.
But he cannot allow himself to be drawn off point by bickering over polls, political analysts said.
"Uplifting the downtrodden. That is the message that he wants to drum home," Grayson said. "Candidates need to keep on message. It's Politics 101."
S. Lynne Walker: slwalker@prodigy.net.mx |
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