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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | January 2006 
Reform, Stability Vie in Mexican Race
 Hugh Dellios - Chicago Tribune
| | Mexican presidential candidate Felipe Calderon, top right, of the ruling National Action Party (PAN) waves to supporters as he leaves a rally in the working-class neighborhood of Itztapalapa in Mexico City, Mexico, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2006. The conservative candidate began the first official day of campaigning by meeting for breakfast in this rough neighborhood as he vies to replace Mexican President Vicente Fox, who is prohibited by law from seeking re-election. (AP/Gregory Bull) |
Mexico City - None of the three main candidates launching their all-out campaigns for the Mexican presidency today offers the high-riding, boot-wearing cowboy image that President Vicente Fox rode to his historic victory in 2000.
But some believe the race for the presidency in July may be even more important than Fox's breakthrough in keeping Mexico on a true democratic course and empowering it to adopt badly needed reforms, tackle drug violence and create jobs so its workers don't flee to the United States.
Mexican voters will decide whether to follow much of Latin America to the left with former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose social programs, frugal image and popularity in the capital have made him the front-runner for nearly two years.
But gaining on him is Felipe Calderon, a former energy secretary and scion of one of the founders of Fox's right-wing National Action Party who promises to broker the crucial reform deals that Fox could not.
And few have ruled out Roberto Madrazo, a veteran political boss from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, a vote-generating machine that stayed in power for 71 years before Fox came along.
While the main issues will be crime, jobs and how to manage Mexico's oil money, another key could be whether one candidate rekindles the hopes that Mexicans invested in Fox before his proposed reforms fizzled into disappointment and disillusionment with the country's partisan politics.
"People already bet on Fox. Now they don't know if they want to bet again on [Lopez Obrador] or return to the bad that they know," said Carlos Montemayor, an author and political commentator.
Fox has been a staunch advocate of democratic freedoms, and has touted his efforts at keeping Mexico's economy stable. But after five years in which his government caved in to protests, the opposition-led Congress refused to cooperate with him and violent crime continued to plague the cities and U.S. border, many Mexicans may be searching for more order.
"People may want a harder hand now," said Ernesto Villanueva, an academic and freedom-of-information campaigner. "Fox stands for freedom, but maybe they want security now more than freedom. Even the U.S. wants that."
The U.S. will be watching the campaign closely. An often-asked question is how U.S. officials would deal with a true left-wing president on its southern border. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other officials have assured that the U.S. will work with whoever is elected.
How the U.S. handles the pressing issues of illegal immigration and border security also may have an impact.
For five years, Fox has pleaded and pressured for easier immigration rules for Mexican workers. If the U.S. Congress adopts such reforms after a debate scheduled to begin in February, it could be a boost for Calderon, the candidate from Fox's National Action Party.
"Calderon largely is going to sink or swim on Fox's record," said Jorge Castaneda, a former foreign minister under Fox. "The more [President] Bush makes Fox look like he got nothing from this stronger relationship he wanted with the U.S., the harder it will be for Calderon."
Analysts are calling the campaign Mexico's first wide-open, truly democratic contest, because for the first time in seven decades there is no entrenched PRI. Fox cannot run for re-election.
The campaign is expected to have its share of mudslinging. Lopez Obrador is fending off accusations that he could destabilize the economy, Calderon is being tied to the disappointments with Fox's tenure, and Madrazo is being labeled a throwback to the most corrupt years of PRI rule.
All three candidates are portraying themselves as centrists, trying to attract millions of undecided middle-ground voters. That has led to complaints that there has been little debate and less innovation, although the most intense campaigning won't begin until a holiday "truce" ends Thursday.
But some argue that for the first time, after decades of the PRI's murky center-left politics, voters will have a distinct choice between left and right, between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. That has made the race more competitive and ideological but also more tense and polarized.
"You have clear alternatives. This is new," said Sergio Aguayo, one of Mexico's most prominent proponents of democratic reforms. "The question is how far will the candidates go to win, and will the losers accept the results?"
Each of the candidates has a serious challenge to overcome if he is to fill Fox's boots.
Lopez Obrador, 52, is a former PRI-ista who later joined the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party and led anti-government demonstrations on the oil platforms of his native Tabasco state.
As Mexico City mayor from 2000 to 2005, he had 80 percent approval ratings. But he won't be able to win unless he also builds support outside the capital.
Calderon, 43, is a lawyer with a master's degree from Harvard University and served as his party's president at the age of 34. He was the Fox appointee in charge of pushing the president's reforms to Mexico's outdated energy sector, which ultimately stalled, but supporters say he would be a better deal-broker than Fox.
Madrazo, 53, is an avid marathoner and son of a PRI stalwart. He defeated Lopez Obrador in a bitter, protest-marred contest to be Tabasco state governor in 1994, so this year's race has elements of a personal feud.
He has a reputation as a backroom maneuverer and he carries baggage from his party's corrupt and authoritarian past. But he says that the PRI has turned a new page under his leadership and that only it has the experience to break the government's lack of momentum.
Two other candidates from far smaller parties are in the race. One is Patricia Mercado, a feminist running with the Alternative Party, and the other is Roberto Campa, a former PRI leader running with the New Alliance Party.
hdellios@tribune.com |
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