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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | February 2006 
Mexican Presidential Race Tightens
 Lennox Samuels - The Dallas Morning News
| | Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador |
Mexico City - Mexico's presidential race is tightening between the longtime frontrunner, former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and Felipe Calderon of President Vicente Fox's party, a new poll shows.
And in an ominous sign for the former ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, its candidate, Roberto Madrazo, trails both his rivals and has the highest negative ratings of any contender.
The results of the poll, conducted for, Al Dia and the Mexico City newspaper El Universal, suggest that Fox's National Action Party could retain Los Pinos, the presidential mansion, and that the PRI, which is hoping for a comeback after being ousted in 2000, could spend six more years in the wilderness.
Among likely voters, 39 percent said they would vote for Lopez Obrador if the election were held today, compared with 34 percent for Calderon and 25 percent for Madrazo. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent, the race is a statistical dead heat between Calderon and Lopez Obrador.
The election is scheduled for July 2. Mexico's constitution allows for only one six-year term for presidents. Whoever wins will face a number of contentious issues involving the United States, including immigration, drug trafficking and border security.
Calderon's gain among likely voters comes in part because most registered voters did not know who he was just a few months ago, and as they come to know him, "some of them are attracted to his campaign and his numbers rise," said Carlos Ordonez, who oversaw the poll.
He added that Calderon has an opportunity to gain even more support because his name recognition remains below that of the other two candidates, who essentially are at 100 percent recognition.
El Universal's polling unit conducted in-person interviews with 430 likely voters Feb. 10-13. A January poll by El Universal had Lopez Obrador at 40 percent, Calderon at 33 percent, and Madrazo at 26 percent.
Analysts said Calderon has made significant gains at the expense of both his opponents. The race is emerging as a contest between left and right, between the populist Lopez Obrador and the conservative Calderon, analysts said.
"Lopez Obrador's issue is really the economy and everything else plays into that - whether it's immigration or security," said Dan Lund of the polling firm MUND Americas. "Calderon has made a bet for continuity."
Meanwhile, Madrazo's support appears to be crumbling, analysts said.
Asked which candidate they would "never" vote for, 42 percent said Madrazo, compared with 13 percent for Lopez Obrador and 9 percent for Calderon.
"Madrazo is in bad shape," said Francisco Abundis Luna, associate director of the Mexico City polling firm Parametria. Analysts said the PRI standard-bearer has been hurt by the scandal surrounding Arturo Montiel, who was his opponent in the PRI primary. Montiel, former governor of the state of Mexico, withdrew from the race last fall after news reports raised questions about his ownership of luxury homes and properties in Mexico and Europe valued at more than $20 million.
TIGHT RACE
Likely Mexican voters' picks if the election for president were today:
39 percent: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, former Mexico City mayor who has been the front-runner for nearly two years, from the Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD.
34 percent: Felipe Calderon, former energy secretary from President Vicente Fox's National Action Party, or PAN.
25 percent: Roberto Madrazo, a veteran leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which held power for decades before Fox won office.
Mexico City newspaper El Universal's polling unit interviewed 430 likely voters Feb. 10-13. Minor candidates are not included. Margin of error: plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, meaning each total can vary that much in either direction.
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