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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | April 2006 
Mexico's 'Indestructible' Leftist Starts to Wobble
 Alistair Bell - Reuters
| | Mexico has been one of Latin America's most stable countries in recent years, but critics say Lopez Obrador could ruin that. |
Mexico City – Only a month after boasting he was “politically indestructible”, Mexican leftist presidential frontrunner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is looking shaky for the first time.
Lopez Obrador has enjoyed a lead of up to 16 points in opinion polls for three years but it has melted away in the last month as he came off worse in an ugly fight with President Vicente Fox.
The July 2 election that once looked likely to place the former Mexico City mayor up on the pantheon of new Latin American leftist presidents is now turning into a tight race that threatens to stir up political and financial volatility.
Lopez Obrador's lead has been cut to 3 or 4 points ahead of ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, according to two respected polls this month.
“We still have to see if this really is a tendency but it might be the start of a repositioning. Lopez Obrador should indeed be worried,” said Irma Mendez, a political analyst with Latin American think tank FLACSO.
A series of fierce attacks on conservative Fox at campaign rallies have played into fears that Lopez Obrador is an old-style leftist with a cavalier approach to law and order, and that has hit his popularity, polling firms say.
Lopez Obrador accuses Fox of illegally backing Calderon's campaign and told the president to “shut up”, comparing him to a “chachalaca” pheasant-like wild bird with a loud squawk.
RIVALS TAKE HEART
Fox's National Action Party, which lies second in most polls, is delighted that Lopez Obrador lost his cool, even though he later announced a unilateral truce with Fox.
“People are now finding out who Lopez Obrador is, that he is a danger for Mexico and that's why he's losing so many points,” said Juan Molinar, a senior party deputy.
Convinced Lopez Obrador is crumbling under the pressure, the PAN is rolling out ever more aggressive campaign ads attacking his record as Mexico City mayor.
Lopez Obrador said last month he was politically indestructible despite opponents' attempts to paint him as a fellow traveler of populist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
Mexico has been one of Latin America's most stable countries in recent years but critics say Lopez Obrador, who promises to give priority to Mexico's poor, could ruin that.
Some analysts say that, paradoxically, a clear election win for Lopez Obrador might be better for Mexico's stability in the short term than a narrow victory for one of his rivals, which could lead to leftist complaints of fraud and street protests.
HSBC bank said this week that it was becoming difficult to call the Mexican election, the first since Fox ended 71 years of single-party rule in 2000.
“Some things seem clear, e.g. volatility lies ahead. But what is not clear to us is who will win the presidency and whether the victor will have any legislative control to push reforms,” it said.
Moderate aides in Lopez Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution have clocked up the air miles traveling to New York to try to convince Wall Street investors that Lopez Obrador would be responsible with Mexico's finances, a strategy that seems to be working.
“He has actually been quite restrained,” HSBC said of Lopez Obrador's economic record in his time as mayor.
Still, political concerns are partly behind a 5 percent drop in Mexico's peso currency since early March.
The leftist's campaign team has taken a strategic decision not to run a negative campaign and to stop fighting with Fox, who is popular but cannot stand for office again.
“If we contribute to generating an atmosphere of a lot of tension in the country, then that is going to increase fear and undecided voters will not come out and vote. That doesn't suit us,” top advisor Manuel Camacho said. |
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