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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | May 2006 
Calderon Gains Lead in Mexican Presidential Polls
 Associated Press
| | Presidential candidate Felipe Calderon, right, speaks with supporters in Mexico City, Mexico on Tuesday May 2, 2006. Ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon has a narrow lead in Mexico's July 2 presidential election, according to a poll published Tuesday - the second survey in a week to show him overtaking longtime front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. (Reuters/Mario Castillo) |
Mexico City Ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon is slightly ahead in the presidential race, according to a poll published Tuesday the second in a week showing Calderon ahead of longtime front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
The poll, published in the daily Milenio newspaper, shows Calderon, of President Vicente Fox's conservative National Action Party, or PAN, with 36 percent of the vote; Lopez Obrador, of the left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, with 33 percent; and Roberto Madrazo, of the former ruling International Revolutionary Party, or PRI, with 28 percent.
The survey was conducted among 1,500 adults from throughout Mexico from April 26-29. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
The poll appeared exactly one week after the first debate among the candidates, last Tuesday, which Lopez Obrador did not attend.
The former mayor rejected the poll's results Tuesday, saying it was part of a strategy by his rivals to confuse voters.
I maintain that we are 10 points ahead. ... I am absolutely sure that we are OK, he told local news media.
A poll published in the newspaper Reforma on the day of the debate showed Calderon in first place with 38 percent of the vote, compared to 35 percent for Lopez Obrador. Asked at the time for his response, Lopez Obrador responded, Ha, ha, ha, ha!
The Milenio poll showed Calderon jumping from 31 percent of the vote in April to 36 percent in May, while Lopez Obrador fell from 34 percent to 33 percent during the same period. Madrazo dropped from 31 percent in April to 28 percent in May, the poll said.
The two other candidates in the race barely figured in the poll. Alternative Social-Democratic candidate Patricia Mercado had 3 percent of the vote, while Roberto Campa, of the New Alliance Party, had 0 percent.
Several analysts had predicted that Lopez Obrador's absence from the debate would hurt him in the polls. The former Mexico City mayor argued that he preferred to speak one-on-one with the people instead of verbally sparring with his adversaries on television.
Lopez Obrador has agreed, however, to attend the second and final debate among the candidates. That debate is scheduled for June 6, less than a month before the July 2 election.
Mexico Conservative Holds Lead in New Election Poll
Reuters
Mexico City Mexico's conservative presidential candidate Felipe Calderon has a 3 percentage-point lead over his leftist rival ahead of the July election, an opinion poll by the Milenio newspaper showed Tuesday.
The survey gave Calderon of the ruling National Action Party 36 percent support among probable voters with rival leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in second place at 33 percent.
It was the first time Calderon has led the Milenio poll, and appeared to confirm a separate poll in the Reforma newspaper last week that showed him overtaking Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City. Lopez Obrador led polls for the last three years but he has slumped in recent weeks after his rivals launched aggressive campaign ads against his policies.
He also came out worse in a public squabble with President Vicente Fox and then further hurt his cause by refusing to join other candidates last week in a televised debate, which polls say Calderon won.
The previous Milenio poll in April gave Lopez Obrador 34 percent support, a lead of 3 percentage points over Calderon.
Calderon is promising to create jobs, reform Mexico's inefficient energy industry and maintain the conservative fiscal policies of Fox, whose election victory in 2000 ended 71 years of single-party rule.
Lopez Obrador, the candidate from the Party of the Democratic Revolution, is pledging to end two decades of free-market reforms, spend heavily on welfare programs and create jobs with big infrastructure projects.
He insists he is way ahead of Calderon and has said he will join a second debate in early June.
Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century, is trailing in third place in almost all polls. The latest Milenio survey showed him with 28 percent support but others have him even further back.
Milenio said its poll of 1,500 people was conducted April 26-29, immediately after Calderon's strong showing in the debate, and had a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. |
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