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 News from Around the Americas | October 2006 
Arizona Race a Test for Tough Immigration Stance
 Tim Gaynor - Reuters
| | A man gives a speech during an immigration rights rally at the Arizona State Capital in Phoenix, September 4, 2006. Randy Graf became Arizona's Republican candidate for Congress by taking a tough stand on Mexican border security but he seems unable to win over voters with a month to go until the November 7 election. (Jeff Topping/Reuters) |
Randy Graf became the Republican candidate for Congress by taking a tough stand on Mexican border security but he seems unable to win over voters with a month to go until the November 7 election.
The former golf pro and state representative, who was part of a civilian volunteer force to halt illegal border crossings, is hoping a strong enforcement message that includes deploying troops along the border will draw the hard-line conservative vote in southern Arizona.
"They are mobilized already," Graf told Reuters in an interview. "We are talking seriously about stopping illegal immigration before we talk about any other issues."
Others doubt his pitch will work -- even in an area where almost half of the 1.2 million illegal immigrants caught crossing the U.S. border last year trekked north.
Immigration has been a hot button topic in U.S. politics all year. It brought hundreds of thousands of mostly Hispanic protesters out on to the streets of American cities from California to New England in May.
Analysts say Graf's race and others around the country will test whether voters back an enforcement-only approach or a more comprehensive approach by President George W. Bush, Republican moderates like the state's senator John McCain and Democrats including Graf's rival, Gabrielle Giffords.
Giffords, a former state senator, is campaigning on a policy she calls "enforcement plus," which combines tough border security with an immigration overhaul. She is pulling ahead with the latest Reuters/Zogby poll giving her an eight-point lead over Graf. The poll had a margin of error or plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Bush had hoped earlier this year to push through comprehensive immigration legislation that would create a guest worker program allowing some of the 12 million illegal immigrants in the country to legalize their status.
He backs a bill along the lines passed by the U.S. Senate with bipartisan support from McCain and Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy (news, bio, voting record). But House Republicans opted for an enforcement-only position to keep close to their base and the two sides could not reach agreement before Congress recessed for the campaign.
BELLWETHER RACE
"The Graf and Giffords race is going to be a bellwether for how the House Republican strategy on immigration plays out," said Frank Sharry, executive director of the Washington-based Immigration Forum.
"Their hard-core constituency is very loud but it's not very large and they have yet to prove that they could swing a general election," he said.
Analysts say the hard-line approach is not gaining much traction in other states such as Colorado, where Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (news, bio, voting record) is just a few points ahead of Democratic challenger Angie Paccione despite attack ads accusing her rival of rolling out the welcome mat for illegal immigrants.
With only weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans nationally are signaling they are not onto a winner with the enforcement-only approach. In fact, they appear to be backing away from it -- at least in southern Arizona.
The Republican National Committee pulled $1 million in funding from Graf's war chest in recent days, while retiring Republican moderate Rep. Jim Kolbe (news, bio, voting record) has withheld his endorsement.
"The state is actually very, very strident on border issues but much closer to McCain's position on what to do with illegal immigrants when they are here," said Bruce Merrill, a pollster at Arizona State University who has followed the state campaigns closely.
The get-tough strategy might well have worked in mobilizing hard-line Republicans, Merrill said, but it will lose them the seat anyway.
"My feeling is that Graf is right, that he will bring some additional people out" to vote, Merrill said. "But my question is, 'Are there enough of them to win an election?' and I think the answer is an overwhelming 'no."' |
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