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 News from Around the Americas | July 2007 
Mexico's Weather Service Cuts May Cloud US Forecasts
 Robert Krier - San Diego Union-Tribune
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Budget constraints have forced Mexico's weather service to cut back on launches of data-gathering weather balloons, and the resulting lack of information is being felt on the U.S. side of the border.
Until this spring, Mexico was releasing two balloons a day at 15 sites around the country. Now in most regions, only one balloon is being launched every three days.
A balloon's readings, called soundings, give forecasters a snapshot of what's going on at various levels of the atmosphere. As they rise, the balloons send back details about temperature, moisture, air pressure and wind speed and direction.
Meteorologists on both side of the border plug that data into computer models, which then come up with forecasts.
During most of the year, what's happening in the atmosphere above Mexico has minimal direct impact on weather in the U.S. But during the summer, airflow patterns often bring warm, moist air from Mexico to the U.S.
Without the twice-daily soundings, the computer models are often forced to use old data to formulate the forecasts. Changes in the atmosphere that happen between the infrequent soundings can be missed, and that can throw off the forecasts.
The tail end of moisture moving up from Mexico often hits the mountains of San Diego County, as it did last weekend. The lack of data could make it harder for forecasters to predict the timing and intensity of thunderstorms, and that could cause complications in potential flash-flood situations.
It could be that we'll get surprised one way or another, said Ed Clark, warning coordination meteorologist at the Weather Service's Rancho Bernardo office. The models could show a storm being a little wetter or drier than it really is.
Clark said forecasters will try to compensate for the missing balloon data by using satellite information, reports from aircraft whenever possible, and good old-fashioned meteorology.
The biggest impact from the missing data on this side of the Mexican border could be felt in New Mexico and Arizona. Erik Pytlak, science and operations officer at the Tucson office of the National Weather Service, said that some of the upper-level disturbances that moderate monsoon thunderstorms in the region can initially occur over Mexico. The computer models can miss these disturbances because they often don't show up in the infrequent soundings.
We don't have any numbers to show that the missing data is doing A, B or C to us, said Pytlak. The impact is unknown.
Oliva Parada Hernández, communications manager of Servicio Meteorologico Nacional, Mexico'a national weather service, said the service only has about a third of the more than $2 million needed for twice-daily balloon launchings around the country. Only Mexico City, which has a population of 20 million and concerns about air pollution and flash floods, gets two launchings a day.
Hernández said budget cuts began during President Vicente Fox's administration. She said the lack of weather data is a serious problem during hurricane season, which runs through November.
We are worried about this situation, because we know that the international weather stations, including the National Weather Service in the USA, need our data to do their forecasts, she said. We are losing a lot of very important data every time we don't launch a weather balloon.
Hernández said her agency is pushing for more money from the federal government, but she doesn't believe it will arrive in the near future.
Abraham Nudelstejer, sports editor for Enlace, contributed to this report. |
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