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 News from Around the Americas | October 2007 
Clinton Takes Lead in Iowa Poll
 Thomas Beaumont & Jonathan Roos - The Des Moines Register
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| | Sen. Hillary Clinton, was viewed in The Des Moines Register's latest poll of Democrats as the strongest presidential candidate on more key traits than her opponents, even as they have stepped up their critique of her. (Charlie Neibergall/AP) |
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has climbed into first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans expected to participate in the state's Democratic presidential caucuses, with John Edwards and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama both in striking distance.
The Iowa Poll shows 29% of likely caucusgoers preferring Clinton, up from the Register's poll in May.
Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was the choice of 23% in the new poll, slipping from the top spot since the May survey to nearly even with Obama.
Obama was at 22%, virtually unchanged from May.
Clinton's gain comes after a summer of campaigning in Iowa that included two trips with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and major policy speeches about Iraq and health care.
The new poll also shows Clinton picking up support even as Edwards and Obama have sharpened their criticism of her.
Survey results show all other candidates falling farther behind the top three, despite regular Iowa campaigning by several of the others.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was in fourth place as the choice of 8%, down slightly from May. Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was in fifth with 5%, up slightly. All others had support from 1% or less.
The telephone survey of 399 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 1-3, roughly three months before the Iowa caucuses are expected to begin the series of state nominating contests.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Eleven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support.
The poll's findings are in line with Iowa polls in the past month which have shown Clinton overtaking Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses and had led in Iowa polls earlier this year.
Clinton trailed Edwards by 8 percentage points and was neck-and-neck with Obama in the Register's May poll.
Since then, she has expanded her campaign organization and joined her opponents in advertising on television in Iowa.
The race in Iowa remains fluid, but preferences have become firmer since May, with 53% of respondents saying they could be convinced to support someone else, down from 69% in May.
Among the roughly one-third of caucusgoers who say their minds are made up, Clinton is favored by 48%.
Clinton's reputation as a polarizing figure was cited as a factor by 63% of caucusgoers supporting a Democrat other than the New York senator.
Clinton's edge among those firmly decided and her vulnerability as someone who engenders strong opinions illustrate the idea that there is little ambiguity about caucusgoers' feelings about her.
"She's a very pleasant person and I strongly believe in her point of view," Des Moines homemaker Tonya Battin said. The 36-year-old independent plans to support Clinton in the caucuses.
Cedar Falls Democrat Jane Thomas said she could never support Clinton. "I think all she has on her mind is power," said Thomas, an 80-year-old retired home health aide.
Clinton was viewed in the new poll as the strongest candidate on more key traits than her opponents, even as they have stepped up their critique of her.
Those traits include leadership, experience, toughness, intelligence and electability.
Clinton also was the preferred Democrat among caucusgoers 55 years and older, the most dependable age group for showing up to past caucuses.
National polls have shown Clinton leading since she announced her candidacy in January, with Obama a distant second followed by Edwards.
In July and August, Edwards and Obama began attacking Clinton more while campaigning in Iowa, describing her as too connected to Washington, D.C., and unwilling to challenge foreign policy convention.
Edwards support declined by 6 percentage points since the May poll. Part of the decline was in union households, where Edwards led in May but where Clinton had the lead in the new poll.
Edwards continued to lead among men in the new poll. Edwards, who has worked for two years to raise awareness of poverty, was tied with Clinton for support from those representing the lowest income group.
Of those supporting a candidate other than Edwards, 50% pointed to the former senator's wealthy lifestyle undermining his credibility in speaking out against poverty.
Edwards' past consulting work for a private equity company, whose subprime mortgage divisions foreclosed on homeowners in New Orleans, Iowa and elsewhere, received media attention in the past six months. So did his paying hundreds of dollars apiece for haircuts and building a $5 million home in North Carolina.
Still, Edwards and Obama were tied for the lead on the question of who had the most to offer on morality.
"I think he's very honest and I think he's got experience," Thomas, the Cedar Falls retiree, said about Edwards. "I think he comes across as somebody that believes in his country."
Obama, who was campaigning in the state while the poll was conducted, had the highest rating on the traits of integrity, vision and charisma.
Obama also led among political independents and caucusgoers under the age of 45, typically less reliable blocs in caucus attendance than active Democrats and older voters.
Among those surveyed who were backing someone other than Obama, 77% said his relative lack of experience in national and foreign affairs was a factor. Obama is a former Illinois state legislator and law professor and is serving his first U.S. Senate term.
Ames Democrat Alicia Carriquiry said she was supporting Obama in part because he represents a departure from the past.
"I think he brings a fresh view to the presidency. He strikes me as a very highly educated, highly intelligent person," said Carriquiry, a 49-year-old Iowa State University statistics professor. |
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