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 News from Around the Americas | November 2007 
Cubans Stopped at Sea Nearing Record
 Alfonso Chardy - Miami Herald
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| | Relatives of Cubans picked up at sea protest government's policy. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images) |
The number of interdictions in the Florida Straits may soon match or exceed those in 2005, when the U.S. Coast Guard made the greatest number of interceptions since the rafter crisis 13 years ago. As of Wednesday, the number of Cuban migrants stopped by the Coast Guard was 2,938, just 14 shy of the 2005 mark.
While no mass exodus is afoot, the increased number of interdictions is part of a gradually increasing number of Cubans leaving the island and heading for the United States - by boat, plane, car and on foot through the U.S.-Mexican border.
At least 3,437 more Cubans left the Communist island and reached the United States between October 2006 and September 2007 than during the previous 12-month period, leading some Cuban affairs analysts to wonder whether a migration crisis is coming.
On Wednesday, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced a new parole program for Cubans awaiting immigrant visas on the island partly to deter the growing marine migrant flow. Cubans who have been waiting for approved visas but have not received them will be eligible for the new parole documents, which are expected to be issued quickly.
Experts at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies recently compiled a report that showed in the last two fiscal years, more Cubans arrived than during the entire Cuban rafter crisis that brought 37,191 Cuban migrants, and in the last seven years more Cubans have arrived than during the rafter and 1980 Mariel exoduses combined.
'MASS MIGRATION'
"The arrival of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Cubans over a short period of time is a scenario that any U.S. administration would like to avoid at all costs," the report said. "Yet, quietly but increasingly evident, a new mass migration out of Castro's Cuba may be in progress."
Other Cuba observers, however, aren't convinced.
"I can't find something statistically significant in that 1,000 or 2,000 or 5,000 more Cubans are interdicted or arrive," said Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va., who specializes in Cuban affairs and supports lifting the Bush administration's travel restrictions to Cuba.
"It's no secret many people want to leave Cuba, but it doesn't mean that a migration crisis is imminent. You cannot infer mood from combining figures from different categories of immigrants . . . What is going on is accepted as normal, all around."
Some recently arrived migrants say they left because uncertainty increased after an ailing Fidel Castro last year ceded power to his brother Raúl.
"People want change, that there be a democracy but nothing seems to change," said William Mujica, 33.
Mujica, who arrived via the Mexican border, was picking up a work permit at the Archdiocese of Miami's Catholic Charities Legal Services office downtown.
Randolph McGrorty, the agency's executive director, said half the Cubans his office helps have arrived by way of Mexico.
"Migrants crossing the border has been a trend for the last four or five years," he said. "It has stayed pretty steady."
Mujica, who came across the border more than five months ago, left Cuba by raft and landed on the Yucatán Peninsula. Customs and Border Protection figures show that the majority of Cuban migrants now cross from Mexico.
According to the UM study, between October 2005 and September 2007, almost 77,000 Cubans reached U.S. soil - more than twice the number during the 1994 rafter exodus.
The UM report notes that in the last seven years more Cubans have arrived than during the combined 1980 Mariel boatlift and 1994 rafter exodus: 191,000 since 2000 versus 162,191.
However, totals in the UM report also include Cubans who have arrived legally under a 1995 migration accord with Cuba.
The totals also factor in those who annually receive green cards under the Cuban Adjustment Act. These include Cubans who have arrived legally with visas from Cuba or illegally, by sea, air or land through third countries like Mexico or Canada.
Under the Cuba-U.S. migration accord, the United States is supposed to issue at least 20,000 immigrant visas annually in Havana. But that number periodically falls short, leading to recriminations between Havana and Washington.
The two governments have recently traded accusations on which side is to blame for this year's visa deficit. On Wednesday, when U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced the new parole program, officials said that as of mid-November, at least 13,000 Cubans who had petitions approved were still awaiting visas.
'DISILLUSIONMENT'
Jaime Suchlicki, director of the UM institute that assembled the recent migration report, said the increase in arrivals reflects growing "disillusionment" with the Cuban regime.
"There is a belief that Cuba will not change rapidly and that Cuba's economy will not improve very rapidly," Suchlicki said. "One recently arrived refugee told us, `We spent 47 years trying to build socialism, so we don't want to build anything new again. We want to go to a society where everything is already built.' "
Most Cuban border-crossers reach Mexico after arriving by boat at Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Increased traffic across the Yucatán Channel appears to be the result of stepped-up enforcement by the U.S. Coast Guard in the Florida Straits. U.S. officials blame much of the Cuban migrant traffic in South Florida on smugglers.
Under the U.S. wet foot/dry foot policy, those who reach U.S. shores are generally allowed to stay, but those caught at sea are usually returned to the island. Those who arrive at land border crossings are generally allowed into the country.
Cuba has urged Mexico to stem the migrant flow reaching Cancún and Isla Mujeres.
Manuel Aguilera de la Páz, the Cuban ambassador to Mexico, told reporters in Mexico City recently that the increase in migrants requires a new immigration accord between Mexico and Cuba.
achardy@MiamiHerald.com |
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