| | |  Americas & Beyond | October 2008 
Victory in New Mexico Battleground Beckoning for Obama
 Agence France-Presse
go to original
| | A New Mexico Obama supporter at a campaign rally in September 2008. New Mexico, a border state with a large Hispanic population that voted for the Republican candidate in 2004, should by rights have been a winnable battleground for John McCain. (AFP/Emmanuel Dunand) | | |
Albuquerque, New Mexico - New Mexico, a border state with a large Hispanic population that voted for the Republican candidate in 2004, should by rights have been a winnable battleground for John McCain.
But with November's presidential election just weeks away, McCain finds himself struggling to stay in touch with his Democratic rival Barack Obama in a state that analysts describe as a microcosm of the national race.
Latest polls in New Mexico have seen Obama pulling clear from McCain by several percentage points, with concerns about the economy and Iraq relegating local issues such as immigration and energy policy to the background.
According to RealClearPolitics.com's poll of polls, Obama leads McCain with a 49.8 percent share of the vote to his rival's 42.5 percent.
The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll on October 1 had Obama leading by 49 percent to 44 percent, a sharp turnaround from early September when McCain held a slender two-point lead over his rival.
According to New Mexico-based political analyst Heath Haussamen, the state is now leaning towards Obama as concerns over the faltering economy deepened.
"It's not an insurmountable lead for McCain but it's gone from being a toss-up to leaning Obama," Haussamen told AFP.
"In many respects New Mexico is a microcosm of the national race. Most battleground states you can look around and pick out some unique issues that may decide the contest. But in New Mexico the issues are pretty much national.
"So that means the economy is front and center. Things might not be as bad here as they are in other states, for example our foreclosure rate is a lot lower. But they're still not good. So it all comes down to the economy."
While McCain's support of drilling was broadly popular across the state, the economy was "drowning out" an issue that might otherwise have worked in McCain's favor, Haussamen added.
The Republicans' plunging popularity over the economy had even raised the prospect of a clean sweep of victories for Democrat candidates in New Mexico who are also contesting a Senate seat and two House seats.
"There's a sense that voters are unhappy with the Republicans to the extent that they may throw the baby out with the bath water," Haussamen told AFP.
And despite McCain's support last year for immigration reform, Obama appears to have surged into a massive 17 percentage point lead amongst New Mexico's all-important Hispanic voting bloc, according to Rasmussen Reports.
History is also on Obama's side.
On only two occasions has the winner of New Mexico's electoral votes failed to go on to win the White House - in 1976 when Gerald Ford defeated Jimmy Carter, and 2000 when Al Gore shaded George W. Bush.
• New Mexico pros for McCain: McCain's stated aim to "drill, baby, drill" is popular with New Mexicans, who support expanded offshore oil and gas drilling by 64 percent to 24 percent according to an Albuquerque Journal poll.
• New Mexico pros for Obama: Recent elections have seen Democratic Party candidates dominate. As of 2008 50 percent of voters were registered Democrats compared to 33 percent for Republicans. |
|
| |
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us