| | |  Americas & Beyond | October 2008 
Obama Pads Lead in New Poll
 Andrew Quinn - Reuters
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| | Democrat Barack Obama is the overwhelming favorite of young people to win the coming presidential election, according to a study released Wednesday. (see story below) | | |
Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.
With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points.
Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.
"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."
The Illinois senator saw his lead among women - who are expected to play a decisive role in this election - increase to 18 points from 16 points on Wednesday.
And independent voters, who have been the target of intense campaign efforts by both sides, have now swung behind Obama by a 30-point margin, 59 percent to 29 percent.
Zogby said McCain, 72, appeared to have lost the traction he won after the third and final presidential debate last week.
"McCain can still try to turn it around, but he has to find focus," Zogby said, adding that economic issues, which dominated the campaign amid turmoil in the credit, housing and financial markets, still seem to be working in Obama's favor.
"At some point there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy," Zogby said in a statement.
Other recent national polls have given Obama a narrower lead, but Zogby said he was confident in his sampling methods.
The latest poll showed a continued erosion of McCain's support even among his "base" voters.
While Obama wins the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, only 81 percent of Republicans back the Arizona senator - down from figures in the low 90s immediately after the Republican national convention in early September.
Obama holds a 6-point lead among men, 48 percent to 42 percent, while white voters - who had been among McCain's core support groups - now only back McCain by a 2-point margin.
Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr held relatively steady at 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. Three percent of voters said they remained undecided, unchanged from Wednesday.
The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,208 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.
The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.
Obama Holds Big Lead With Younger Voters
Denisse Rauda - Capitol Hill Blue
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Democrat Barack Obama is the overwhelming favorite of young people to win the coming presidential election, according to a study released Wednesday.
A survey of 18 to 24 year olds conducted by Harvard University found that Obama commands a 26 percent lead over Republican candidate John McCain.
"The remarkable youth voter turnout in the primary process underscored the historic role young people are playing in the political process this year," Harvard's Institute of Politics director Bill Purcell said in a written statement.
The survey, which was conducted on the Internet between September 12 and October 6 of this year, is the latest in a series of polls Harvard has been conducting to gauge youth voting trends.
The survey also found that McCain's choice for running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, had an adverse affect on his support, with 40 percent of the youths saying her selection made them less likely to support the ticket.
Not surprised in the least by the findings, William A. Galston, a senior fellow and chair of governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said he was not surprised by the findings.
" If you go back ever further, young adults have (been) trending towards liberalism, towards the Democratic Party for ten years now," said Galston, who was a senior adviser on past-Democratic presidential contender Al Gore's campaign.
Galston gave credit to former President Bill Clinton's administration, which provided "a very positive, formative experience ... (and) increased their confidence in government and the Democratic Party."
Breaking party lines, a majority of the Harvard poll participants - whether Democrats, Republicans or independents - said Clinton was the president they would like to see the next president model himself after.
Other survey findings:
• The economy was the dominant issue amongst the participants. TThe economy is the top concern (for young voters)," John Della Volpe, director of polling at IOP, adding that the survey was in progress during the start of the current financial crisis.
Galston said this, too, did not surprise him. "If I were a young (person) thinking about getting out of school and finding a job, I'd be plenty worried right now. I'd be amazed if it weren't at the top of the list of concerns," he said.
• The number of young people who identified the Iraq war as their top concern has fallen, from 37 percent this time last year, to 9 percent now.
• Almost six out of every 10 of the young people said they were interested in engaging in some form of public service. |
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