| | |  Americas & Beyond | November 2008 
US Democrats Look Ahead to a New Era
 Aaron Blake - The Hill
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| | Democrats are looking to increase their majority in Congress. (Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP) | | |
Democrats are within reach of their magic number this election - a 60 percent majority in both chambers of Congress.
In the Senate, they could secure a filibuster-proof majority, which would set the seal on a new epoch of one-party domination.
It still appears unlikely that Senate Democrats will quite hit that mark, but the party also beat similar odds two years ago when it won three of four key races to take a bare majority.
All eyes Tuesday night will be on three Southern states - Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi - with Democrats needing at least one to reach their prize.
The party seems set to expand its 51-member conference with victories in open seats in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia, and it has also polled ahead in five other states - Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon.
It would need to win all eight, plus one of the three Southern states, where Sens. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) are fighting for their political lives.
Democrats would have to win yet another one of the Southern targets if someone like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) is able to hang on, or if Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) defects for the GOP - an increasingly likely scenario.
Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Sunday that 60 seats would be "very, very difficult."
"I will say this: With 56, 57, 58, we'll be able to get a lot done in the Senate to help change the country," Schumer said on CBS's "Face the Nation."
In the House, Democrats control 235 seats and are a lock for 236 when Democrat Marcia Fudge replaces the late Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Ohio).
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has talked openly about a 250-seat majority, but other analysts are predicting a possible 25- or 30-seat gain.
A 25-seat gain would put Democrats at 261 votes, which is exactly 60 percent of the 435-member House.
Asked Monday about a 25- or 30-seat gain, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen tried to lower expectations.
"I do worry about hearing some of those numbers," the Maryland Democrat said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "To get those numbers, you'd have to have all the toss-up [races] go in the Democratic column."
Democrats have cast a wide net this cycle and are currently favored in about 10 GOP-held districts, with another two dozen seen as toss-ups. They wouldn't have to sweep those toss-ups, but they would have to win most of them.
Appearing alongside Van Hollen, House Republican campaign head Tom Cole said his party would rely heavily on GOP presidential nominee John McCain's Election Day performance.
"We're linked pretty closely to John McCain," Cole (Okla.) said, adding: "We certainly won't do well if he doesn't."
Democrats have lauded nominee Barack Obama for his down-ballot effect, and his ability to turn out the black vote in Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi and North Carolina could determine the results of those races.
While Senate Democrats are going after many new states, House Democrats have focused resources on districts they nearly won in 2006.
Despite winning 30 seats two years ago, Democrats lost out on nearly two dozen GOP-held seats by five points or less, and in many of them, the committee didn't expend large amounts of resources.
The committee has subsequently spent millions this cycle in districts it misjudged last time, including against GOP Reps. Robin Hayes (N.C.), Joe Knollenberg (Mich.) and Randy Kuhl (N.Y.).
Van Hollen began his first term as head of the DCCC by focusing on districts where the GOP incumbent won 55 percent or less in 2006. The committee has now spent more than $40 million on 30 such races, after spending about half that in 2006.
With Van Hollen, Pelosi, Schumer and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) primed for big gains, they will be confronted with new challenges in governing.
Given even a near-filibuster-proof majority, Reid wouldn't be able to blame Republican obstructionism for the lack of legislation passing through the upper chamber.
Pelosi will be faced with an extremely diverse caucus filled with centrist and conservative Democrats who will need to vote frequently with the other party in order to stay politically viable.
Gaining large majorities should allow Democrats to build a sustainable ruling party, though.
Almost without fail, the party of the president loses seats in midterm elections. But if Democrats approach 60 percent majorities in both chambers, they would have to suffer catastrophic losses in 2010 in order to cede either one.
The GOP could also be thrown into a state of chaos, with a House leadership shakeup possible if the losses tend toward the higher estimates.
Senate Republican leaders, on the other hand, seem unlikely to pay for an Election Day thumping, according to senior GOP aides and senators.
While there might be fights for the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in the conference, and for the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairmanship, no major shakeup is expected, unless McConnell, the minority leader, loses reelection.
If McConnell loses, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) will probably ascend to the leader position. But there will be a fight for his No. 2 spot, likely between Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and John Thune (R-S.D.), according to several senior GOP aides.
Manu Raju contributed to this article. |
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