| | |  Business News | June 2009 
Mexico’s Carstens Sees Recession Easing Through 2009
 Jens Erik Gould - Bloomberg
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June 04, 2009
| | Mexico’s Finance Minister Agustin Carstens | |
Mexico’s Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said the nation’s recession will ease in the coming two quarters after gross domestic product declines sharply in the three months through June 30.
The economy is returning to normal quickly after an outbreak of swine flu, Carstens said today at financial conference in Monterrey, citing an almost complete recovery in domestic tourism.
“Economic activity, especially production and sales figures, should improve month to month from now until the end of the year,” the minister said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts GDP will shrink 8.5 percent this year, which would be the biggest contraction since 1932, as a slump in the U.S. reduces tourism, remittances and demand for exports. Central bank Governor Guillermo Ortiz said yesterday that Mexico must improve tax collection and make the labor market less rigid to avoid having its credit rating cut.
Moody’s Investors Service rates Mexico’s debt as Baa1, the eighth-highest ranking, alongside Russia and Hungary.
The government forecasts a 5.5 percent decline in GDP in 2009 from a year earlier. Carstens sees the economy posting almost zero growth in the fourth quarter, which would be an improvement from the third quarter, he said.
The spread of swine flu continues to decline, the Health Ministry said yesterday, reporting that deaths climbed to 103 from 5,563 cases. International tourism is still being affected by the flu, Carstens said.
The government aims to push laws boosting the economy through Congress in the second half of this year and next year, he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jens Erik Gould in Monterrey at jgould9(at)bloomberg.net |
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