| | |  Business News | June 2009 
Worst of Crisis Over, Says Gurría
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June 25, 2009
 |  | The O.E.C.D. report estimates that Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will contract 8 percent during 2009, as reflected by plummeting export figures. |  | | |
The worst of the economic crisis appears to be over, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, said Wednesday as it revised upward its main growth forecasts for the first in time in two years.
"Thanks to firm action to stimulate our economies, it appears that we have escaped the worst during this crisis," said the secretary-general of the O.E.C.D., Angel Gurría, a native of Mexico.
For the whole of the O.E.C.D. area, growth was forecast at 0.7 percent next year, from a March estimate of a decline of 0.1 percent, and a contraction of 4.1 percent this year from the earlier 4.3 percent decline.
In its semi-annual economic outlook, the association said that a number of factors contributed to the overall improvement, including fiscal stimulus packages, the stabilization of the financial markets, a slow improvement in world trade and relatively quick recovery in emerging economies.
For Mexico, the O.E.C.D. report announced negative news. It estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will contract 8 percent during 2009, as reflected by plummeting export figures.
It is the worst contraction in a decade for the nation. The last negative growth year was 1995, when the GDP plunged 6.2 percent.
The forecast is much more pessimistic than the projection made by Mexico's Secretariat of Finance, which estimated in a recent study that the national economic contraction would be 5.5 percent by the end of the year.
"The main downward trend for the Mexican economy is because of the U. S. economic shortfall as well as the decreases in demand worldwide are turning out to last longer or are deeper than expected," the report says.
On the positive side, Mexico can expect to witness a 2.8 percent rebound by 2010, the O.C.D.E. report states. This represents a much more positive forecast than the one made public by the organization last November, whey it put 2010 growth at mere 0.4 percent.
Global growth is bound to come during the second half of 2009 and gain speed by 2010 when it may reach average growth rates of 4 percent a year, the O.C.D.E. report states. |
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