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How Much Does it Cost a Social Network for a Political Candidate in Mexico? Part 2
 Guillermo Ramón Adames y Suari - PVNN
February 14, 2010
There are other functions in facebook and in other social networks to "add friends". Some psychological subtleties include commenting on certain human qualities (not the candidates' qualities but psychologically building a "network" ideology) to give the "feeling" that "we are among friends". A well structured strategy by a staff who likes to be behind computer screens all day long: Sending email slogans about the presidential candidate all over the Mexican net. These activities require a strict strategic planning with a well defined promotional and marketing structure. This includes a high-tech environment and a great deal of staff ready to follow a calendar to build up the network. The basis of the whole campaign is the "common information" on or about the candidate. On the computer front it must have a database-administration system: The social network administrator must have a summary (mechanical) of what has been done computer wise with each "friend" and its frequency. Basically the administrator (and/or his assistants) must follow up absolutely every "friend". A database-management software like Access will do the job but then the administrator must know all databases attached to the network. And databases will be in various configurations and formats and platforms. The administrator must master them all.
My first estimate of a cost for a "friend" in a social computer network including all the technical studies and staff that are required to set it up would be around $50 to $100 Mexican pesos for trimester. This figure would include "all" components of all social networks included. Why a trimester? We could not notice significant differences in the size of the network in a week or two. Larger periods of time are necessary to measure the rate of growth of a network. It must be stated that the basic principles of Statistical Quality Control are included in this process. I teach these principles at the Universidad Iberoamericana. The amount cited above is structured to generate a network of some 500 "first friends" in a trimester at a working rate of some 6hs per day work.
Another assumption is that in the beginning it is very difficult to show "the feeling of the network" to the new arrived friends. Very few studies exist about social networks. The very essence of computerized social networks is at the most two years old. What is known of social networks is that with a good psychological support (which also has a price and is not easy to build), the social network can grow rapidly, depending very much on the acceptance (whatever that might mean: acceptance proper or reaction against other candidates) as well as the "credibility" of the political party. It is also true that certain people even with the best support will get nowhere. People simply do not like them and political parties in their thirst for power do literally no matter what.
A component which is very costly is the surveys which are repeated and repeated. These are intended to obtain indexes and to manipulate opinion. Surveys sometimes are actually carried out and sometimes are invented. These are usually filled with statistical terms such as: "If the voting would take place today, in a stratified random sampling at country level of "this many" citizens with a margin of error of "1%" and a confidence interval of 95% according to the voting intentions expressed as of today, the elected candidate would be Mr. …" (So far, Mexico has not passed the stage of electing "Mrs." or "Ms"). Remember in 2,000 when the sampling enterprise directed by Maria de las Seras predicted that Mr. V. Fox was going to be the next president or Mexico by a margin of "so and so". The impact (and reaction against the PRI) was so strong that even in the case of a minor statistical error, there was no place to accept who the winner would be. I do not question Maria's professional integrity. The issue here is the way in which this statistical tool can be used to manipulate (reconfirm) the number and fidelity of "friends" in the network.
So far, the description summarizes about 90/95% of the expenses of the computer social network system. Let's look at the figures (approximated) in Facebook of some social networks of "friends" of Felipe Calderon (10,600), Ernesto Peña Nieto, (21,000), Marcel Ebrard Casaubon(1,800) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (4,000). Figures only in the Facebook network as of the curse of early February 2010. Let's take a look in a couple of months to measure the rate of growth of the corresponding networks and the amount of "new friends" incorporated. Do not miss the overall vision: A political social computer network is an investment in an elaborated publicity and marketing network just like launching a refreshment. All tricks are used (permitted?). The difference is the future of country… which just happens to be in the way.
Guillermo Ramón Adames y Suari is a former electoral officer of the United Nations Organization. Contact him at gui.voting(at)gmail.com
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