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Mexico To Produce 22% of Latin America's Power
 Companiesandmarkets.com & OfficialWire
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April 08, 2010
London, England - The newly published Mexico Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 22.03% of Latin America regional power generation by 2014, with a developing power surplus available for export to the US. Our Latin America power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,110 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 1.8% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,397TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 25.8%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 397TWh, accounting for 35.8% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 477TWh, implying 20.2% growth, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.1% - thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Mexico's 2009 thermal generation was an estimated 193TWh, representing 48.58% of the regional total. By 2014 it is expected to account for 49.37% of regional thermal generation.
For Mexico, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 52.8% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 35.5%, coal at 5.3%, hydro-electric energy at 5.1% and nuclear energy with a 1.4% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 765mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 22.6% growth. Mexico's estimated market share in 2009 was 25.06%, easing to a forecast 24.05% by 2014. The country's 9TWh of estimated nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 11TWh by 2014, with its share of the Latin American nuclear market set to rise from 30.51% to 33.85%.
Mexico is now ranked last, behind even Venezuela, in our Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of privatisation progress, poorly developed competitive landscape and demanding regulatory environment conspire with country risk factors to depress the score and put Mexico at the foot of the table. However, it has the longer-term potential to challenge Venezuela for fifth place.
We are now forecasting average annual Mexican real GDP growth of 2.76% between 2010 and 2014, with a decline of 7.10% assumed for 2009. The population is expected to expand from 107.6mn to 111.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 68%. Electricity consumption per capita is now expected to increase during the period by 5%. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 194TWh in 2009 to 212TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a rising net export capability, assuming 3.1% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2009 and 2019, we forecast an increase in Mexican electricity generation of 49.7%, above average for Latin America. This equates to 21.7% in 2014-2019, down from 23.1% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to remain around the 2009-2014 level of 17.6% in 2014-2019, or 38.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 29% in hydro-power use in 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 49% between 2009 and 2019, with nuclear demand rising by 56%.
Mexico Power Report Q1 2010
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