| | |  Business News 
Mexico 2011 Growth Forecasts Fall in Cenbank Poll
 Jason Lange - Reuters
go to original
October 01, 2010
Mexico City - Analysts lowered expectations for Mexico's growth in 2011 as the outlook for U.S. expansion also worsened, according to a central bank survey conducted in late September and released on Friday.
At the same time, forecasts for inflation next year rose slightly, providing a mixed message about the pressure faced by the central bank to raise borrowing costs.
Lower growth forecasts could ease pressure on policy-makers to raise interest rates, while an outlook for higher inflation could make them more anxious to raise borrowing costs.
The central bank poll also found that concerns about security were the third most cited factor holding back economic growth for the third straight month. Mexico's drug war has escalated this year and more than 29,000 people have died in drug violence since late 2006.
While Brazil and Chile hiked interest rates this year to cool their faster-paced recoveries from recession most analysts don't expect Mexico to raise rates until next year at the earliest.
Mexico slashed rates in 2009 to counter its worse recession since the 1930s.
In the poll, analysts estimated on average that the economy would grow 3.5 percent next year, down from expectations of 3.58 percent in the previous August poll.
The poll, which surveys economists from 32 private banks and consultancies in Mexico and abroad, saw the U.S. economy expanding 2.5 percent next year, down a tenth of a percentage point from the previous survey.
Weaker export demand topped the list of factors holding the economy back for the second straight month. Mexico sends about 80 percent of its exports to the United States. Concerns about the lack of economic reforms was second on the list.
Mexico's gross domestic product was seen growing 4.6 percent this year -- unchanged from the August poll. The economy contracted 6.5 percent in 2009 as exports to the United States plunged.
Mexican Central Bank Governor Agustin Carstens said on Friday Mexico's economy will grow between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent in 2010.
The poll showed inflation forecasts rising to 3.84 percent for 2011, up slightly from 3.82 percent in the previous poll.
In a separate report, the central bank said migrant remittances rose 9.32 percent in August from a year earlier.
(Additional reporting by Mica Rosenberg, Luis Rojas and Patrick Rucker Editing by W Simon)
|
|
| |
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us