Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - With Enrique Peña Nieto as the newly elected president of Mexico, the country waits to see how his promises of change will affect their country. But it's not what you'd describe as a dream job. Especially since the widely publicized concerns over the ongoing drug war are making foreign investors think twice about investing in Mexico.
What they may not know is that behind the gory headlines lies a country to be reckoned with when it comes to economic growth. Currently Mexico is enjoying a manufacturing boom (manufacturing accounted for 2% of GDP in the 1980s, now it’s at 24%,) that, when combined with its formidable export power, makes it one of the world's most attractive emerging markets.
According to Money Week Magazine, there are several reasons for the economic boom in Mexico, which began when the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) was signed in 1994. 1) The Mexican peso, traditionally known to be weak against other currencies, grew stronger. 2) The country's large and growing work force keeps wage inflation in check, making the price of Mexican goods more competitive.
"The gap between Chinese and Mexican wages has narrowed sharply from 260% in 2006 to just 10% today," notes HSBC’s Sergio Martin. "Taking into account travel costs, Mexican factories now beat Chinese ones on cost for many goods. That explains why 12.5% of America’s imports currently come from Mexico. That’s the highest in a decade, and second only to Canada."
And while Mexico is still growing its share of the US market, it is open to venturing into business sectors with nations beyond North America. Increasing sales to its Latin American neighbours, along with the British Prime Minister's June 2012 visit to Mexico, demonstrate the country’s willingness to work across borders and its eye on international growth.
Today, Mexico's overall value of exports stands at $700 billion - and that number is expected to double within the next eight years. Mexico is also 'moving up the value chain.' "More jobs, more energy, [and] more foreign investment are going into more advanced applications," says Scot Overson, who heads Intel’s Mexico division. These include technology and aerospace, or advanced manufacturing, not just unskilled manufacturing.
The country has also been wise enough to avoid squandering the proceeds of the boom. Public debt stands at 35% of GDP and falling, while inflation is hovering around 3.8% - below the upper band of 4% targeted by the central bank.
Despite Mexico undergoing one of its best-ever periods of growth and economic stability, its main stock index, the MEXBOL, doesn’t look too expensive. The price/earnings (pe) ratio of 14 is pretty much in line with the index average since its 1978 inception.
But keep in mind that investing in Mexico is definitely a ‘risk-on trade’ - if investors get nervous they could jump ship indiscriminately. But in the long run, Mexico investments have a great potential for long-term profitability.
So what’s the best way to invest? Signing up with the oligopolies (a partnership of companies that control most of a market) is not a bad bet. An inexpensive way to do that is through iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Index ETF (US: EWW), which has an annual charge of just 0.5%. It is skewed towards the large consumer stocks that will continue to benefit as Mexico grows.
Among Peña Nieto’s many campaign promises, two that stand out are 1) his pledge to free up the labor market from inflexible labor laws and 2) to reform tax. If he keeps these promises and makes the necessary efforts to strengthen the domestic economy while maintaining a healthy exportation practice, Mexico’s economy will continue to flourish.
Source: MoneyWeek.com