The first round of NAFTA renegotiations between the Trump administration and counterparts from Mexico and Canada begin today in Washington, DC. The August 16-20 talks to redo the controversial 1994 agreement, which eliminated trade barriers among the three countries, are expected to be thorny.
About 14 million American jobs depend on trade with Canada and Mexico, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a business advocacy group.
But roughly 800,000 jobs were lost to Mexico between 1997 and 2013, reports the Economic Policy Institute, a research group.
Trump's biggest gripe with NAFTA has been the dramatic shift in the US' commercial balance with Mexico, which since the treaty's inception has gone from a surplus of $1.3 billion to a deficit of $64 billion.
The US trade balance with Canada is more even, but that trade relationship also has points of tension in some sectors, including dairy, wine and grains.
NAFTA has been a bedrock of the Mexican economy, with 80% of Mexico's exports going to its Northern neighbor, an especially impactful relationship for Mexican manufacturers and farmers. The agreement has also significantly boosted Mexico's auto sector, which has grown because of its supply of cheap labor as US automakers have shuttered some factories in their home country.
Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump threatened to slap tariffs on Mexican goods or tax American companies that move jobs south of the border. But more recently he has softened his stance and said that renegotiating better deals is the most efficient course for the US, Mexico and Canada.
While the US under Trump has been the party to force NAFTA back onto the agenda, all three countries agree there will be benefits to revisiting an agreement nearly a quarter of a century old that was crafted prior to the internet era.
"Each country feels they have a lot to gain from pursuing these negotiations," said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank.
Trump administration officials have said they want a swift outcome to the talks, but experts think a speedy deal is unlikely. This week's opening salvo will be followed by a second round of talks beginning September 5 in Mexico.
Sources: Agence France-Presse, Washington • CNN Money