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 Editorials | July 2005 
Mexican Voters Hungry for Change Again
 Lennox Samuels - The Dallas Morning News
| | Mexico City mayor López Obrador remains the top presidential contender in the Latin American country, according to a poll by Instituto de Mercadotecnia y Opinión. |
Six years ago, Mexicans contemplating the 2000 presidential election were indicating that they were eager for change after seven decades of rule by the same authoritarian party.
When they went to the polls, they ousted the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, from Los Pinos, the presidential residence, and installed Vicente Fox of the National Action Party, or PAN. It was a sea change in Mexican politics.
Now, roughly a year ahead of the July 2, 2006, election, many voters are saying they want ... change. For many Mexicans, Mr. Fox has not delivered on promises to revive the economy, create new jobs and reorganize the country's energy industry.
"There's disappointment," said Carlos Ordóñez Cabezas, pollster with El Universal newspaper. "People feel let down, frustrated."
Mexicans are looking past Mr. Fox to the next president, analysts say.
"The capacity to deliver will be the issue, because Mr. Fox promised change, but the problem was his incapacity to deliver it," said Raúl Feliz, a professor at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching, or CIDE.
Who is likely to bring about that change? The leading candidates at the moment are Santiago Creel of the PAN, until recently Mr. Fox's interior minister; Roberto Madrazo of the PRI; and Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD.
Hugely popular in the capital, Mr. López Obrador is the current front-runner. He stepped down from his duties as mayor Friday to campaign for the presidency.
"The only one offering change seems to be López Obrador," said Jonathan Heath, chief economist at HSBC Mexico. "I've heard that explanation, very simplistic, from a lot of people."
An analysis by the polling firm MUND Americas suggests that between now and the election, Mr. López Obrador is likely to be confirmed as the PRD candidate; Mr. Creel could be displaced as the PAN candidate, possibly by Felipe Calderón or Alberto Cárdenas; and Mr. Madrazo will "fight to hold the PRI together around his candidacy." Others are expected to challenge him, however.
All three parties have begun campaigning hard for the presidency, seen as winnable by anyone.
Current polls by both El Universal and its rival, Reforma, indicate that if the election were held now, the PRI would win the most votes, followed by the PRD and then the PAN. Just a few months ago, the PAN was ahead of the other parties.
But when focusing on personalities instead of parties, both polls show Mr. López Obrador of the PRD in first place, followed by Mr. Madrazo of the PRI and then the PAN's Mr. Creel.
Two recent gubernatorial tests ahead suggest that the PRI is coming on strong. The party held onto the state of Mexico by a wide margin and evicted a PAN/PRD coalition from the governor's mansion in Nayarit.
Ideology takes back seat
Campaign appearances by the candidates have been dominated by local reporters' questions about campaign spending and allocation of party resources. Discussion of border issues often has taken a back seat in the campaigns.
"I don't see a lot of ideology in the next year at all," said political analyst Jorge Chabat, also a professor at CIDE. "I think more than issues will be personal attacks – 'this guy is more corrupt than me.' I imagine there'll be a lot of talk about corruption. Maybe they'll discuss programs, security. López Obrador and Madrazo will talk about a failed [Fox term]. Both will be right, because nothing has been done."
Meanwhile, there are issues that need to be addressed, analysts say. People's main concerns are unemployment, insecurity and the influence of narcotraffickers, said Mr. Ordóñez Cabezas, the pollster for El Universal.
"I would say the main concern is that the economy is not growing at a faster pace," said Isaac Katz, economics professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. "I would say any candidate will try to promise that the economy is going to grow faster, that wages will go up."
Many Mexicans agree that the economy and security are top issues.
"The most important issues are economic development, social and public policies," said Erika Mosqueda Vallejo, 28, an unemployed sociologist.
"Primarily security and the lack of jobs," declared Araceli Palafox, a 39-year-old homemaker.
"Insecurity due to kidnappings," said Antonio Medina, a 72-year-old retiree. "It is fundamental that priority be given to education, health services, narcotrafficking including the retail sale of drugs and police training."
And for several of those interviewed, Mr. López Obrador appears to be the man most likely to tackle such thorny themes.
"I suppose all of them can," said Ms. Vallejo. "However, I consider Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the one who has more ability to address these issues."
But some people said they did not expect any of the candidates to produce results.
"I think none of them," said Blanca García Miranda, 27, a marketing student. "We've always seen it. In the first stage of the campaign, there always are promises because the candidates need votes. But when they're in the presidential chair, they forget everything and don't do anything."
Whoever does emerge victorious will have to contend with a contentious lower house of Congress, where most decisions are made. One reason Mr. Fox has not delivered on many of his promises has been his inability to forge enough of a consensus in the Chamber of Deputies to push through his programs.
Of 500 deputies, 224 are PRI, 149 are PAN, and 97 are PRD. The others are split among smaller parties.
Constructing a working majority is possible, said George Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Va.
"I don't think deadlock and drift is the necessary outcome. I would guess it's the probable outcome," he said.
"López Obrador is the only person who could build a majority. Madrazo is a very good coalition builder; the problem is that no one trusts him. The PAN is out of the money, they are badly off the radar screen."
lsamuels@dallasnews.com |
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