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 Editorials | At Issue | September 2005 
The Probability of Immigration Reform: Less than Zero
 Jon Garrido - Hispanic News
| | Colombian Americans cheer and wave Colombian flags during a town-hall style meeting with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in Elizabeth, N.J. New Jersey is home to the third-largest Colombian population in the U.S. (Photo: Mike Derer) |
Phoenix - Within my circle of friends, business acquaintances, advocacy partners, other acquaintances and the hundreds of shoppers I have come to know at the Mesa Food City where I have shop nearly daily for the last two years, the talk is not if, but when.
The reality of the situation is: the probability of immigration reform is for all practical purposes - dead in the water. Less than zero.
All due to a woman passing in the night.
Not la Llorona who instilled our childhood with fear but another woman who came to visit us in the night with her merciless plundering much like destruction by the Lord's hand made desolate waste of a Sodom Gomorrah never to recover it's sinful way of disobeying the Lord, our God.
Everyone called it a disaster of biblical proportions. She created havoc, fear, pain, suffering and most sorrowfully, she instilled: despair.
A woman named: Katrina.
Katrina not only wrecked havoc on the city of New Orleans but brought to a halt all plans and hope for millions of undocumented Hispanics pursing the American dream. The end to the pursuit of American citizenship and that most sought treasure that makes all possible - a valid social security card. The list of wants and needs that could have only been made possible through immigration reform.
To those who live near the corner of Mesa Drive and Southern, Katrina was something happening a million miles away and to other people.
In another country like Iraq, maybe on the moon, all believe the impact would never be felt in the Mesa Drive and Southern neighborhoods made of approximately forty percent undocumented residents plus American Hispanics that add another forty percent of the area who care and provide shelter and food to a undocumented relative or undocumented friend of the family.
This Saturday morning is the same as any previous Saturday. Today, life continues as it did yesterday, last week, last month, last year with the only hope that comes not from reading Hispanic News, the Arizona Republic, the New York Times, the Washington Post or even listening to the countess Spanish speaking radio stations blaring out advertisements.
The message will come from "word of mouth" passing through neighborhood by neighborhood.
The message will come spreading despair among the undocumented - immigration reform is not going to happen.
Why they will ask?
Many will not understand the answer nor accept it. Even more will continuing praying to our "Lady of Guadalupe." Where is She when we need her more than ever?
Immigration reform was always like paddling upstream against the current of anti-Hispanic sentiment. Countering the need for immigration reform, strategies have been formulated, countless meetings have been held bringing about a feeling of caring by the various group members. With so much energy expended by immigration reform advocates, many of whom think their efforts will bring reform this year, immigration reform is just one more meeting away. Well maybe, two. Not more than three at the most.
All worthy and noble ventures but lacking in reality.
The improbable passage of immigration reform has always been daunted by the lack of a voting constituency.
The American way of life. An ideal to subscribe to for it makes possible achieving the American Dream but is hindered by the principal America was founded on: the principal of one-man one vote.
The balance between those who live in the Camelback corridor who want to limit building heights and the planners who want to lift height restrictions will be tempered by the Phoenix City Council knowing full well the wrath of voters can turn a city on its head.
This is the one man, one vote principal which along with the rule of law are the two most important tenets that keeps America on the right path.
The Camelback corridor residents make up a voting constituency and with this principal, their rights will never be tampered on.
If only the documented had use of the one man-one vote principal. Herein lies the paradox. La mosca in the butter.
The undocumented do not vote.
They are not part of any voting constituency. Even the most likely ally should be American Hispanics but the needs of the undocumented are at the bottom of the list of priorities of American Hispanics. Much too quickly, American Hispanics have come to accept the same priorities as all other Americans.
American Hispanics who already live here are pursuing and achieving the American Dream. They could care less about the undocumented who have already entered to have a means to gain American citizenship. Much further down the list of priorities are those who are still waiting to cross over.
Lack of foresight causes American Hispanics to cut off their noses to spite their faces. What instills American Hispanics to give low priority for the undocumented is essentially our own fault.
The fault comes from a leaderless American Hispanic community. The ideal scenario would be to find a leader that would educate American Hispanics on this basic fact: To achieve parity in America's society requires a significant increase in American Hispanics who can vote as the only avenue that will bring about institutional change. We are upwards of 14% of the American population but only 6% voted in the 2004 election. Yet this dismal number of voters still brought attention to the needs of all American Hispanics. How much more so would 10%, then 20% and so forth bring?
In Arizona, we comprise upwards of 30% of the population but we are outgunned at nearly every Arizona election. Witness the City of Phoenix election this week. A courageous effort by a Hispanic woman to campaign for city office. Courageous for daring, but oh, what a inadequate campaign. To have a priority be the environment in seeking to represent South Phoenix is one of the most stupid campaign strategies ever witnessed.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs are always nearly as important as no increase in taxes. Someday someone has to create a consultant campaign organization that takes charge of running campaigns.
As bad as the campaign was in this past week's Phoenix election was the unforgettable campaign in the last gubernatorial primary election. To sit on one's laurels and to expect to win without an effective structured campaign was a classic comedy of errors namely: ego with a capital "E."
There is so much for us to learn and gain if we could only find ourselves an "Antonio Villaraigosa."
Even if this were possible, the misguided perception of most Arizonans has to be re-directed.
To compound the plight of the undocumented, the one man, one vote principal provides the means to impose its will on the perception that the undocumented have entered America illegally and are draining America's resources.
This is perception, not fact, for it can be documented and argued the undocumented bring value by their existence in America.
The principal of one man, one vote is the keystone to our Republic but regretfully, the one man, one vote "herd of buffalo mentality" runs in the direction dictated by fervor, astute marketing, and the wrong perception the undocumented are un-deserving with the underlying root cause being - fear of change. Fear of the loss of the status quo.
Yet, the herd mentality visibly portrayed by stampeding buffalo provides an opportunity and challenge. Can the herd be made to turn in another direction?
Absolutely.
Next year as part of the 2006 elections, Arizonans need to be educated on the positive contributions that have been made in Arizona going back to the early 1500s Hispanic excursions (not Latino as some would choose to use) to the present.
Hispanics have always been contributors, not takers in Arizona's history. As great as these contributions have been, they are infitismal compared to the contributions, American Hispanics are going to make to Arizona.
Speaking at a prayer service earlier in the day as part of a national day of remembrance for the hurricane's victims, Bush vowed to rebuild the Gulf Coast with the goal of wiping out the legacy of racial discrimination and social inequality that has compounded poverty there.
Bush has refused to put a price tag on the reconstruction plan, although members of Congress and others have predicted that it could cost as much as $200 billion.
The final accounting could approach the more than $300 billion spent in four years to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq.
One day after pledging to undertake one of history's largest reconstruction efforts, President Bush served notice yesterday that rebuilding the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast will require spending cuts elsewhere in the federal budget.
The program with the least of constituency? All of above: Katrina, Iraq, Medicare, Medicaid, education reform, and of course, the yearly "Pork BBQ Festival," at the expense of immigration reform. Even in a perfect world, immigration reform would be nearly impossible.
Disagreements in what direction immigration reform will take are played out daily with prevalent distortions determining the direction of the herd.
The disagreements are not on principle. Rather they are with those who have assumed, with the help of news media such as CNN's Lou Dobbs and leadership positions such as Congressman Tom Tancredo and even Arizona's J.D. Hayworth (It is impossible to be an Hispanic Republican in Arizona) on would be solutions. They have became spokespersons against illegal immigrants and the U.S. government, particularly against President Bush, with accusations of aiding and abetting or otherwise doing nothing to protect our nation from the "hordes of barbarians" storming our borders.
These groups insist they are not anti-immigration but rather anti-illegal immigration; they are not racist but rather patriots seeking to protect the nation.
But there is hollowness to their rhetoric in that while "being for immigration," they refuse to discuss immigration reform with which to provide legal access to new immigrants. They instead insist that before any reform can be discussed, all illegal immigrants must be deported and the U.S.-Mexican border completely sealed to prevent any further intrusions. There is an assumption that doing that is as simple as saying it.
However, other than making accusations, these people make no proposals on exactly how this is to be done or what human resources will be needed, what is the price tag for the undertaking and succeeding in these endeavors, and whether the nation can afford it.
Fortunately, light is now shed on the subject by the Center for American Progress' recently released, "Deporting the Undocumented: A cost Assessment" for discussion and analysis of a policy designed to deport all undocumented persons, currently around 10-million in the United States, and the cost of reducing the flow (illegal entries) to zero over a five-year period.
The report estimates, bottom line, "the cost of a mass deportation effort to be at least $206 billion over five years ($41.2-billion annually)."
The cost analysis assumes that "20 percent of the undocumented population will self-deport and leave voluntarily" due to the government crackdown. If this does not happen, the costs can take a dramatic increase by as much as another $20 to $30 billion.
Today there are close to 11,000 Border Patrol agents and around 2,200 interior enforcement agents. They are part of the present $19.3 billion budget for border and transportation security.
In fact, the entire Department of Homeland Security budget this year is $34.2 billion, which includes the above-mentioned $19.3 billion, far short of the $41.2 billion needed for the deportation/flow-stoppage undertaking alone.
Should funds from national security programs be diverted to a deportation/flow-stop program? Or what other non-national security critical programs can be curtailed or eliminated to provide the needed funds? Or, should taxes be increased to cover the needed $42.2-billion per year to get the job done?
And the critical question begging debate is: Can the United States afford rebuilding the gulf coast and New Orleans, and provide for homeland security, the war in Iraq, Social Security reform, Medicaid reform, Medicare's prescription drugs, education and on top of all provide the needed funds for Immigration Reform?
The one man, one vote provides the answer. Once again, the undocumented do not vote.
Will doing the right thing prevail? Will the egalitarian society be achieved by providing for those most in need - the weakest members of our society?
The ones who have no vote?
Remember what we did to the American Indian. Remember what we did to enslave Blacks. Remember how are schools are failing. Remember how we neglect the poor. Remember the undercarriage of New Orleans' Black community.
The list is endless. Someday the herd turner will arise and lead us in the right direction. Where is that herd turner? Maybe one more meeting. Maybe one more Hail Mary. Until that day... |
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