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 Editorials | September 2005 
The Ever-Changing Face of Campaign Politics in Mexico
 Carlos Luken - MexiData.info
| | Roberto Madrazo, the PRI boss and leading presidential hopeful, fought back a showdown with a group of PRI governors, and he scuttled the hopes of Elba Esther Gordillo. |
Once more the unimaginable seems unavoidable in Mexican politics.
Barely two weeks following the start of what looked to be a ho-hum event, Mexican presidential campaigning took another turn in which the 2006 election outcome may again become unpredictable.
The split in the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ranks has turned into a mutiny that not only threatens party unity and its 2006 election results, but eventually the party itself. Earlier Roberto Madrazo, the PRI boss and leading presidential hopeful, had fought back a showdown with a group of PRI governors, and he scuttled the hopes of Elba Esther Gordillo, the party’s secretary general, to succeed him as PRI president.
Following an open assembly, the PRI governors eventually settled on outgoing State of Mexico Governor Arturo Montiel as their candidate to oppose Madrazo at the PRI’s planned October convention. Montiel, a good campaigner, came out swinging by calling Madrazo a liar and attacking his antidemocratic antics and corruption. It was also rumored that Montiel had wrested support from Madrazo of a main backer, the powerful Hank group.
In resigning the party presidency, Madrazo attempted to name congressman Manlio Fabio Beltrones as his successor, but his hopes evaporated after two unsuccessful ballots and Mariano Palacios Alcocer, a former party president, ultimately won the post. However Gordillo contested Palacios' election and filed two suits against the party in the Federal Electoral Tribunal.
Gordillo subsequently lost on both counts, however the PRI is still in disarray and its dreams of rallying and marching to victory with a united candidate may have vaporized amid vitriolic internal frictions. Aggravating matters, it was reported that much maligned former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, who has strong ties with both Madrazo and Montiel, caused the PRI convulsion in order to have a central say in political decisions.
Although Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and a former Mexico City mayor is still the favorite in polls to become president of Mexico in 2006, his popularity is dimming due to ongoing rhetoric that shows his populism. Many are also starting to question if Lopez Obrador will keep his campaign promises? Furthermore, the past is coming back to haunt him as cohorts, who were involved in last year’s highly publicized corruption scandals, are resurfacing in campaign posts.
Nonetheless, Lopez Obrador will undoubtedly be named the PRD’s candidate on September 18.
Three former cabinet members of the Vicente Fox administration held the first of three debates in the race to become the presidential candidate of the National Action Party (PAN). However Santiago Creel, Felipe Calderon, and Alberto Cardenas, ex-secretaries of the Interior, Energy, and Environment respectively, stuck to their well-prepared monologues and thus avoided debating.
Still, observers felt that Calderon won over Creel, the PAN frontrunner to date. According to a survey, before the debate 38 percent of those contacted favored Creel, 31 percent Calderon, and 13 percent Cardenas. After the event, Calderon’s percentage increased to 35, Creel dropped to 35, and Cardenas went unchanged. The undecided rose from 15 to 16 percent.
The PAN’s candidate is to be selected through three regional primary elections among party members, with balloting on September 11, October 2, and October 23. A runoff election will be held in November should no candidate win a majority.
Party members gave Calderon a stunning upset in the first round of the presidential primary. He received 46 percent of the vote over 35 percent for Creel, who is said to be Fox’s favorite. Cardenas received 19 percent.
Calderon, a former PAN president and congressman, resigned from his Energy post after Fox criticized him for jumping into the presidential race early.
With respect to the PAN primary vote, party members found considerable fault with the way their president, Manuel Espino, organized and handled the election as absenteeism reached highs of 70 percent in some areas. Espino was also criticized regarding the debate, for scheduling it at a time that made it a media non-event — as it aired just before midnight Mexico City time.
After these events, and while official campaigns have yet to begin, it appears that Mexico’s presidential race just could become far tougher than earlier expected.
This in part because the PRI, as if following contradicting strategies, internal turmoil and melodrama, has damaged its own renovation hopes.
Regarding the PRD, scandal and doubt continue to haunt the party, yet Lopez Obrador still leads the pre-campaign race.
As for the PAN, Fox’s popularity — plus orderly primary procedures, are reinforcing the party’s democratic image.
Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant. He can be reached via email at ilcmex@yahoo.com. |
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