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 Editorials | At Issue | January 2006 
Mexican Political and Campaign Strategies
 Enrique Andrade González - MexiData.info
| | Mexican presidential candidate Felipe Calderon, of the ruling National Action Party (PAN), speaks to a crowd assembled in an indoor bullring on the outskirts of Mexico City, Mexico. Calderon is one of three main contenders vying to replace President Vicente Fox who by law cannot run in this summer's presidential elections. (AP/Gregory Bull) |
With the official beginning in January of Mexico’s 2006 presidential campaigns, certain things remain to be seen before possible future scenarios can be forecast, although three facts can be assumed.
First, the people of Mexico are interested in participating in the electoral process. Second, the only candidates with a chance to win are those from the three main parties: Roberto Madrazo, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI); Felipe Calderón, with the National Action Party (PAN); or Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). The third fact is as of yet no candidate has the presidency clinched.
It is generally acknowledged that any one of the three candidates has a chance to win in the July 2 election. What will ultimately make the difference are the marketing strategies, videos and accusations that will be seen and heard in Mexico over the next six months.
The forthcoming elections will be decided by an approximate difference of 3 million votes, which will represent seven percent of the votes cast. According to estimates and surveys 42 million people will probably cast ballots, which is 60 percent of registered voters.
A bitter and very expensive competition – with advertising expenditures of nearly US$100 million – in the effort to convince a still unsure electorate to vote for one candidate or another.
Regarding strategies, first and foremost each party must make sure it does not lose its hard, or adherent, votes. The numbers of those voters are estimated at 10.5 million for the PRI; maybe 8.5 million for the PAN; and around 6.5 million for the PRD. As well, they must try to convince the rest of an undecided electorate, some 16 million people, to vote for their candidate.
In surveys taken about a year ago, within this large undecided segment of voters, the majority supported López Obrador. Yet by the closing months of 2005 doubts had been raised among a portion of those supporters, or they had changed their preference to another option. However this is mostly a reflection of the media and image strategies that are gaining their objectives – to create doubts among those who doubt.
In due course this group will decide the elections. It is not a homogeneous group, and surely this will be a divided vote, however the candidate who is able to gain a majority in this group will win. A group that will be targeted by all candidates, and voters who in principle at least could say that they do not believe in the political parties, or that their main interests are not politics.
So who are these people?
They are younger people, mainly women, students, people looking for work, midlevel employees, independent professionals, small business owners, merchants and others, who normally do not participate in associations or organizations. People who are interested in general well-being from a family perspective.
This is a group that not only wants to protect the status quo but also wants it improved. These people do not want to return to the past, nor do they agree with the present. Their interests are jobs, health, education and pensions.
It is a group influenced by the media, mainly the electronic media, and it has been – or will be – targeted for convincing of three different truths by the candidates.
Calderón and the PAN say what Mexico needs are structural reforms in the areas of labor, energy and fiscal matters. The PRD and López Obrador insist that a structural economic change is needed in favor of the poor, insofar as national stability is at risk. Whereas the PRI and Madrazo claim that they are the only ones that know how to govern and have the capability to do so.
In reality there are different options and proposals. The PRD as a true socialist option; the PAN a traditional right option; and the PRI a centrist option. Yet whomever is dominant on July 2 will not be able to govern alone, for he and his party will have to negotiate and come to agreement with another party in Congress in order to keep their campaign promises.
Moreover, a close eye will have to be kept on the charges, accusations, insults and scandalous videos that are sure to surface during the campaign, so that they will not hinder future negotiations and cooperation. For what is truly at stake, as of now, is the next president’s ability – or inability – to govern.
Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via e-mail at enriqueag@andradep.com. |
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