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 Editorials | Opinions | January 2006 
Parsing the Polls: Can Hillary Win the White House?
 Chris Cillizza - Washington Post
| | U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) joins U.S. Congressional leaders as they stand together to pledge honest leadership and an open government during an event at the Library of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington January 18, 2006. (Reuters/Larry Downing) |
No potential presidential candidate creates more buzz than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Pollsters want to know: Can she win a national election?
Nothing gets my pulse racing like chatter about the 2008 presidential race, and no potential candidate in that field is talked about more than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).
So my interest was piqued earlier this week when the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll had numbers that directly address the biggest question surrounding a Clinton candidacy: Can she win a national election?
Most Democrats - either in Washington, D.C., or out in the country - readily concede that Clinton is the strong favorite for the 2008 nomination (a view backed up by a slew of polls), many simultaneously express concern that Clinton is too divisive to win back the White House for their party.
That divide was clearly apparent in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup numbers: 48 percent of registered voters (a 928-person sample) said they would either definitely vote for Clinton (16 percent) or "might consider" voting for her (32 percent). A slim majority of 51 percent indicated they "definitely would not" vote for Clinton, and a meager 1 percent had no opinion. The numbers were slightly better for Clinton when all adults (a 1,006 person sample) were asked the same question: 50 percent said they either would vote for Clinton or consider it compared to 49 percent who said she would never get their vote for president.
By way of comparison, 52 percent of registered voters in the CNN survey said they would either vote for or consider voting for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, while 46 percent definitely would not vote for her. Rice, the dream candidate for Republicans in 2008, has repeatedly denied any interest in a run for elected office.
The survey was conducted Jan. 20-22 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
So does this poll mean Clinton can't win in 2008? Let's look at some more recent polling before we offer any conclusions.
A new Hotline/Diageo survey asked several interesting questions that offer some insight into Clinton's viability as a general election candidate. In the survey, 48 percent of respondents said they viewed HRC favorably compared with 44 percent who saw her in an unfavorable light. Not surprisingly, Democrats were the most bullish on Clinton (75 percent approve/19 percent disapprove), while Republicans were the least supportive (22 percent approve/71 percent disapprove). Clinton's numbers among independents were sound, with 49 percent approving of her and 40 percent disapproving.
The Hotline/Diageo poll also asked the sample to choose between Clinton and a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical 2008 matchup. Clinton took 41 percent to the generic GOPer's 39 percent with the remainder of respondents undecided. Interestingly, Clinton trailed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by a whopping 52 percent to 36 percent in a potential 2008 ballot test, and McCain's approval numbers were extremely strong across the board - 54/20 among Democrats, 64/14 among independents and 63/19 among Republicans). McCain's astronomical numbers are likely due to the high-profile role he played on the debate over torturing prisoners as well as for his credentials as a reformer - a highly coveted title in Washington these days.
So back to our question: Can Hillary win?
Looking at these latest numbers, the answer seems to be a guarded yes. There is no question Clinton is an extremely divisive figure who is beloved by roughly 45 percent of the population and detested by another 45 percent. But given the extreme polarization between the two national parties these days, that 45-45 split is likely to be the playing field on which the 2008 election is conducted regardless of the participants.
Several other interesting things jump out regarding Clinton's unique appeal (and potential problems). Roughly one-fifth of Democrats view Clinton unfavorably, a sign that there remains a significant bloc within the party dissatisfied with her and not likely to come around any time soon. The same poll, though, showed that approximately one-fifth of Republicans view Clinton favorably - a group (perhaps moderate women that lean toward the GOP) that could push her over the top in a general election.
Clinton has yet to address whether she is considering a national bid and isn't likely to do so until after her (almost certain) reelection in November. As the old cliche goes, a year is a lifetime in politics. But no serious political minds doubt that HRC will seek the nomination, and parsing the two national polls mentioned above shows why HRC is the clear frontrunner in the chase for the Democratic nomination. |
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