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 Editorials | At Issue | March 2006 
Mexican Presidential Campaign Dull Yet Intriguing
 Carlos Luken - MexiData.info
| | Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, maintains lead. |
Mexico’s major parties are showing signs of concern and anxiety as weekly poll numbers reveal their inability to encourage important political shifts in voter preferences.
After two months of official campaigning most independent polls remain frozen, with former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) holding a slight but firm five to seven point lead over Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party (PAN). Lopez Obrador leads Roberto Madrazo, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), by nearly ten points.
As the July 2 Election Day draws closer only the Lopez Obrador camp seems comfortable with its campaign strategy. The ex-mayor has shunned confrontations with other candidates, opting for rallies that are well organized by PRD leftwing activists with the ability to mobilize crowds.
In an attempt to revitalize his fading campaign and image problems, Madrazo of the PRI announced important staff changes beginning with the removal of his prominent media executive, former TV commentator and now Senator Eduardo Andrade. The move offended Andrade, who angrily and quickly sided with growing intraparty opposition to Madrazo.
The PRI’s woes continued to cascade as Madrazo, hoping to take advantage of the opportunity offered by the 77th anniversary of his party, organized a mass unity campaign rally in Mexico City. The result however was a bland non-event, and adding insult to injury 15 of 17 current PRI member state governors were noticeably absent.
In an attempt to reverse the downward trend, Madrazo sought to shock party members into supporting him by dramatically stating that his loss will unavoidably lead to the PRI’s demise.
Madrazo was then confronted by more internal party struggles that led to further defections. Approximately 1,500 members abandoned the PRI in the states of Queretaro and Puebla, including the president of Puebla’s unicameral congress and two PRI legislators.
PAN candidate Felipe Calderon, while holding steady in second place has failed to gain ground despite massive publicity blitzes and several regional campaign rallies, also decided to make campaign strategy changes with the hope of gaining momentum.
In a Mexico City rally, Calderon pledged to ease obvious internal differences and work closer with party president Manuel Espino. He also replaced longtime PAN image executives Francisco Ortiz and Alonso Ulloa, while having yet to identify who will coordinate his image and logistics from hereon. Apparently Calderon’s current campaign coordinator, Josefina Vazquez Mota, will be responsible for recruiting the replacements.
The rally was calculatedly held at the Hotel Maria Isabel Sheraton, which the PRD government of Mexico City sought to close a few weeks ago following a scandal that involved the eviction of a delegation of Cubans, allegedly ordered by the U.S. Treasury Department in a much criticized extraterritorial application of the Helms-Burton Act. Calderon ended his speech with the first real onslaught against Lopez Obrador, as he offered to promote employment by opening businesses versus closing them.
Calderon vowed to be "the president of proposals, employment and investment." And he promised to bring daily proposals for the duration of his campaign
The PRI and PAN, as well as the other two diminutive campaigning parties, are eagerly seeking to engage their candidates in public debates in which all candidates are invited, recognizing the chance to level the playing field by facing Lopez Obrador in this manner. They have applied considerable media pressure, while too asking for support for the debates from the Federal Electoral Institute.
Lopez Obrador on the other hand, who has the least to gain by debating, has been non-responsive to calls to debate as he shrewdly follows a lead protection strategy so as not to jeopardize his image unnecessarily. Still, recognizing the negative public impression in refusing to debate he is insisting instead on his own terms for a single debate, in late May or June, hoping that by then it will be too late to change voter’s minds for the July 2 elections.
As of this writing, debate related meetings between the Federal Electoral Institute and all five party representatives had already taken place but definitive results are yet to be revealed as to the number of debates, exact dates, and format specifics.
With the campaign dragging on it appears that both Calderon and Madrazo are now determined to take a more forceful approach. This with the hope that Lopez Obrador will be compelled to abandon his ostrich-like head in the sand strategy and face up to their calls to debate and other electioneering challenges.
Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant. He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com. |
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