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 Editorials | June 2006 
Post-election Fears and Possibilities in Mexico
 Enrique Andrade González - MexiData.info
On July 2 the most competitive presidential election in Mexico’s post-Revolution history will finally take place. Furthermore, it is said now what is most important for Mexican democracy is for the results to be acceptable, which will be the proof by fire this exercise represents along with the importance of how and when.
Once the results are tallied and certified, and after election officials announce the winner, Mexico will begin a transition period that must allow the president-elect to know the state of the government and the nation, which includes signed accords with parties and individuals. Too, as of July 3 governance will start to be put into place for the next six years.
At the same time, and also as a consequence of the July 2 election, two bodies will be voted into office that are strategic in order for the next president to function normally: the Senate; and the head of government of Mexico City.
Supposing, as is hoped, that the presidential election will conclude on the best of terms, the next chief of state will move into the presidential compound of Los Pinos on December 1 with less than 40 percent of the vote having favored him. And to carry out his governmental programs he will need to form a political majority in Congress, most particularly among the 128 senators. In other words, to carryout the mandate he will need to reach a general agreement that will not allow his proposals and projects to be blocked by an opposition of 50 percent or more in the two houses of Congress.
According to the most serious analyses, as well as historic voting trends in states that majority-wise are still controlled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the 2006 to 2012 Senate will have about 58 members of the PRI, or 45.3 percent. The National Action Party (PAN) should have 40 senators, 31.3 percent; and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) 30, which is 23.4 percent. This means that a coalition will have to be formed among senators of the three parties in order to reach a majority, or with all senators from two of the three parties.
If the newly elected president is acknowledged by Mexico’s electoral authority and President Vicente Fox, but not by either of his two main adversaries, he will not be able to govern with an opposition Congress. Should the incoming president have but 33 to 37 percent of the members of Congress favoring him, to be truly legitimized he will also need one of the two other main contenders to recognize his victory. In this way he will be able to form a consensus with at least 55 percent in Congress, which would allow him to move forward.
The candidate who would need the least in terms of alliances in order to govern would be Roberto Madrazo, of the PRI. He is also acknowledged in the polls as the candidate with the most political experience, which could represent the possibility of reaching accords with Congress and Mexico’s governors.
As for Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PRD, he would have to resort to popular consultation measures that are not controlled by the Mexican Constitution, such as referendums or plebiscites, in order to pressure Congress and thus advance. This could also cause a permanent social mobilization.
Having done poorly in the past with the current administration, among the three contenders Felipe Calderón is seen as the least talented at reaching agreements. He in particular will need the endorsement of another in order to begin.
Another important factor is the Mexico City mayoral election, where surveys indicate the PRD candidate, Marcelo Ebrard, has a comfortable lead of nearly 30 points. The PRD thus should hold onto this extremely important Federal District government, that also plays a substantial role in many accords with the federal government.
Now if the PRD wins, Ebrard could use his post to pressure political adversaries. Or else, as was the case with López Obrador and Fox, he could convert his administration into a “different” government, one that keeps its distance from the national government so as to complicate the federal administration’s performance and accomplishment in the very seat of its powers.
The worse case scenario would be a doubtful and challengeable win by Calderón, with a minority of 38 percent support in Congress, and Mexico City once again governed by the PRD – added to the 21 out of 31 states currently led by the PRI [17] and PRD [4].
Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via email at enriqueag@andradep.com. |
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