 |
|
|
 Editorials | Opinions | July 2006 
A Closer Look at Mexico's Preliminary Election Results
 Al Giordano - narconews.com
| | Vicente Gonzalez Beruman was among those who took buses from the United States and voted at Tijuana's airport Sunday. (Sean M. Haffey/Union-Tribune) |
In a few days we will begin to see who is bullshiting and stonewalling, and what is the real story. The preliminary PREP results are not the official results. The official results can only come in an "acta" or act signed by the elections officials in each polling place, who are chosen by lottery from the citizenry, much like, say, a jury pool. It is a crime to tamper with an "acta." No legal punishment exists for sending in a false PREP report.
All the analysis of election numbers in Mexico so far are based on the Federal Election Institute (IFE)'s "PREP" system. PREP stands for "Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares" (in English, "Preliminary Electoral Results Program."
By definition it is not the vote tally. It is a preliminary report: a poll, nothing more. In a few days we will begin to see who is bullshiting and stonewalling, and what is the real story.
But the PREP results are not the official results. The official results can only come in an "acta" or act signed by the elections officials in each polling place, who are chosen by lottery from the citizenry, much like, say, a jury pool. It is a crime to tamper with an "acta." No legal punishment exists for sending in a false PREP report.
For example, in "casilla 1019 Contigua 3 del Estado de México" (polling place #1019 of the State of Mexico), the PREP reports 88 votes for López Obrador, 62 for Calderon, 41 for Madrazo, 21 for Mercado, 4 for Campa, 8 for write-in candidates, and 7 ballots annulled ("hanging chad" type scenario on those: Let's see if IFE allows those to be reviewed in the official count).
You are supposed to be able to verify that at the IFE website, district by district. But the Internet access to the IFE system has been crashing constantly ever since last night.
Fortunately, when it has been up, El Universal has been downloading the results and putting them on its own website at this URL:
http://prep.eluniversal.com.mx/. Punch in that polling place, and those are the results.
However, a photograph of the ACTA reveals that Lopez Obrador received 188 votes there - a disappearance of 100 in a single polling place where about 320 votes were cast.
More common proofs are emerging of "shavings" of votes: six here, two there, the majority - coincidentally? - shaved from Lopez Obrador's tallies.
There are also documents surging that show that more votes were counted than voters who cast votes in many districts.
Now, I call this the PREF or "Preliminary Results of Election Fraud" because when I finish reporting this story you will see the evidence, photos and all. Until then it is "preliminary" report I'm sharing here. We have various days still to complete the official report. But I think my preliminary fraud results count as much as IFE's preliminary "election" results and my credibility towers over that of the nine political appointees to the IFE board and their staff member, Luis Carlos Ugalde. That's not saying much, for reasons that I will also shortly be reporting about his and IFE's behavior this week.
By IFE's own numbers, the difference between the two candidates nationwide hovers slightly below or above one percent, a difference of less than 377,000 votes.
Also by IFE's numbers there are more than 827,000 nullified votes. Let's find out why in the coming days.
Out of 130,000 "actas" the difference is an average of less than 3 votes (really, potentially less than two, since if a vote shifts from one to another it changes the margin by two).
Here are some facts:
• Mexico's Congress passed a law allowing 4.1 million eligible Mexican voters living in the United States to vote. The IFE then put the following obstacles in their way: They had to sign up six months prior to the vote. They had to show their home town electoral ID card. The Fox administration refused to allow these voters to receive a new electoral ID card by mail, through the Embassies and Consulates, by proxy or by any other means except for re-crossing the border and going back to their home towns to get it. Adding injury to insult, the IFE forced each voter to spend nine U.S. dollars to send the ballot by express mail (each ballot had to be sent separately): a poll tax, is what we used to call this during the Civil Rights movement. This ensured that poor Mexicans on the other side could not afford to vote, and that only those willing to spend nine bucks could do so. Hmmm. Wonder whose campaign that tax was aimed to benefit. Of the 4.1 million eligible Mexicans on the Other Side, only a little over 28,000 were able to get their ballots in. To me, this is evidence of malice on the part of IFE.
• The phenomenon of migrant workers is not just international. As Jules knows, there are tens of thousands of temporary construction workers from Chiapas, Oaxaca, Campeche, Veracruz and elsewhere in Quintana Roo, building the Riviera Maya. This story is repeated all over the country. For them, the IFE promised "special polling places" where with an IFE credential from any town, they could supposedly vote from the road, but only for president (not for local officials). But IFE limited the number of ballots for each of these polling places to only 750. Most of the special polling places ran out by noon, and everyone else was turned away. Which economic class of voter did that deprive of its right to vote? Along the border, busloads of migrant workers did return home hoping to vote, but when they ot their they were turned back. At midday angry voters petitioned IFE to send more ballots. IFE refused. There were 822 such special polling places. Hundreds of thousands of eligible voters were denied their right to vote. Another strike against IFE's supposed "good faith". This maneuver helped Calderon. Again, it is a matter of class prejudice and discrimination.
• A week before the Elections, IFE "shaved" 900,000 voters from its list of 70 million. In general, this was supposedly to eliminate duplications. But there was no transparency. No public accounting was given as to who was removed nor why in the specific.
• Days before the elections, CNN journalist Carmen Aristegui, using the username "Hildebrando117," was able to access a secret section of the PAN party internet system. There, she found special access by PAN to not only that list, but cross referencing it with other "confidential" government lists of who receives public assistance, and what kind, from the federal government. Totally illegal. The username was interesting, too. Hildebrando is the name of the computer software company owned by Calderon's brother in law, Diego Hildebrando Zavala, whose company is partners with - lo and behold - companies that provide software for IFE's PREP system among other IFE computer networks. Maybe, Jules, that passes your smell test. It doesn't pass mine.
These are just a few previews from the upcoming PREF report.
We will learn in these days, for example, if Lopez Obrador's accusation today that "3 million" votes were disappeared from IFE's PREP system, is accurate. This is a political figure that doesn't have a history of making factual claims he can't prove. We'll see what he has in the coming days.
But in sum, regarding this difference of less than 400,000 votes, the following are missing...
* 827,000 nullified votes ("hanging chad" tactics).
* 4,082,000 eligible Mexican voters in the US.
* 900,000 names shaved at the 11th hour from the list.
* Those above 750 voters at each of 822 special polling places.
* A yet to be determined number of misstated returns in the PREP system.
Maybe some people consider this a fair election process. I see it as one intended to exclude the workers and the poor. As to whether a critical mass of said workers and poor come to view this the same way will determine whether Jules or I are correct in our differing analyses about whether this is "crisis."
But my view is, after traveling most of the country the past six months listening to hundreds of hours of testimony with the Zapatista Other Campaign, the crisis - the pain and the rage - was here already. The fraudulent election of 2006 is merely the event that makes that pain, rage and crisis visible.
Message by Luis Carlos Ugalde, President of the Federal Electoral Institute
Financial Times
Good evening.
Today, we, the people of Mexico, have once again met the challenge of democracy.
Today, we have voted freely and calmly. We have experienced an electoral process that fills us all with pride.
As I stated in my message at eight o’clock this evening, our information system indicates that the organization of the election has been very successful.
99.94 percent of the planned 130,488 polling stations were set up. The information available indicates that only eight polling stations were not put into operation.
This was an impeccable election day. That underscores the responsible attitude and efforts of those citizens who served as polling station officials.
I again extend my gratitude to all those Mexicans who, with enthusiasm and commitment, organized and voted in these elections. Thanks to you, we have once again been able to hold a clean and trustworthy election.
I shall now report on the prevailing trends in the presidential vote, based on the Quick Count carried out by the IFE.
The Quick Count was designed by, and is overseen by, a Technical Advisory Committee made up of five internationally renowned Mexican scientists.
I would like to note again that the report I am about to give was drawn up independently by the five members of the Committee, following strict scientific guidelines.
The report indicates the following:
After receiving and analyzing a total of 7,281 polling stations, representing 95.12 percent of the sample selected for estimating the percentages of the vote cast for the various political groups, and taking into consideration that:
One: the fraction of the sample available is adequate for producing estimates with minimum levels of precision and confidence;
Two: information has been received from 300 districts, the geographical distribution of which reflects the nation as a whole;
Three: the percentages of the vote cast in favor of the various political groupings have been estimated;
Four: the margins of statistical error calculated prevent us from clearly distinguishing the political group that has received the largest percentage of the votes cast.
The Technical Advisory Committee has reported that it is unable to determine, within the scientific margins established for the Quick Count, the party or coalition that has obtained the greatest percentage of the votes cast.
In other words, the difference separating the first place from the second is very small, and so at this time the winning candidate cannot be announced.
The Federal Electoral Institute notes that, in accordance with the law, on Wednesday, 5 July 2006, the district counts are to begin.
Once concluded, those calculations will yield the total results for each political party and coalition in the election for the President of the Republic.
That means that we all must wait until the calculations of the presidential vote in each of the 300 districts have been finished.
Those district counts are to begin next Wednesday and, by law, are to be carried out without interruptions.
Meanwhile, anyone may consult the Preliminary Electoral Results Program on the internet.
Thanks to PREP, the people of Mexico can consult the results from each individual polling station.
It should again be noted that only the figures provided by the IFE are official.
Neither the figures given by the parties, nor those of their candidates, nor those of the media can be considered official.
It is essential that we all respect the deadlines and dates set by law for the vote count to be concluded and for the IFE to post the results.
The law shows us a clear and certain process for revealing the voters’ decision.
I call on everyone to abide by that process, with responsibility, over the coming days.
Ladies and gentlemen:
The success of an election is the result of the citizens’ participation and of the transparency and legality with which rules and procedures are observed.
Today, Mexico experienced a highly successful election. The Mexican people have come out massively in favor of democracy.
Out of respect to the millions of voters who cast ballots, the parties and candidates now have an enormous responsibility to the nation.
The IFE has conducted this electoral process scrupulously, and it will continue to do so over the coming days.
For that reason, the candidates and parties must observe the timetable set by law.
But, most particularly, we must all respect the decision of the majority, the decision that we will learn about once the votes have been added up, beginning next Wednesday.
On behalf of the Federal Electoral Institute, I urge the parties, the mass media, the federal and state administrations, the branches of government, civil society organizations, and all the people of Mexico to act with all the responsibility that Mexico deserves.
In the last few hours, parties and their supporters have manifested their support and celebrations ahead of time.
The IFE understands that such manifestations are the product of the moment and of a legitimate desire to obtain a majority vote.
However, as of this time, with the information that has just been given, any claim of victory must wait for the timetable set by law.
All the Mexican people expect the parties and candidates to behave in an exemplary fashion. The entire country demands the prudence that the current situation and the future of Mexico require.
To summarize, the Quick Count Technical Committee reports that at this time it is unable to give a precise estimate of trends in the vote for President of the Republic.
The margin of difference between the first and second places is extremely narrow and a winner cannot be announced.
To calculate the official results of the vote, the IFE will perform the district-by-district vote count. That will commence on Wednesday, 5 July, and will be carried out without interruptions.
When those district counts are concluded, we shall know which candidate obtained the most votes.
The IFE will continue to report the preliminary result of the vote, polling station by polling station, by means of the PREP.
With the same transparency and professionalism with which the IFE has conducted the electoral process, the IFE will count each and every vote.
Thank you very much, and good night. |
| |
|
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us