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 Editorials | Opinions | July 2006 
For Mexicans, Democracy at a Crossroads
 David Adams - sptimes.com
| | A supporter of presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador shouts slogans against Felipe Calderon, of the National Action Party, PAN, and possible winner of the July 2 presidential elections, in Mexico City, Mexico, on Monday, July 24, 2006. Nearly 100 people gathered in front of Mexico's Stock Exchange Market demanding a ballot by ballot recount of the last July 2 elections. (AP/Alexandre Meneghini) |
It's been three weeks since Mexico's hotly contested elections for president and Congress.
But the closest election in Mexican history is turning into an epic saga with two candidates claiming victory and bitter allegations of fraud transfixing the nation. An official winner has yet to be declared.
As things stand, conservative candidate Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party, or PAN, defeated Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, by 243,934 votes out of 41-million cast, a razor-thin margin of half of 1 percent.
Lopez Obrador has refused to concede defeat, demanding a complete recount. The former mayor of Mexico City has staged protests that drew hundreds of thousands onto the capital streets. The controversy poses what analysts say is the biggest challenge to Mexican democracy in recent times.
If the political system is unable to handle the crisis, some fear it could perilously undermine Mexico's democratic institutions, which have long been plagued by vote-rigging and fraud. On the other hand, if the country survives without major turmoil, democracy could emerge strengthened.
"Mexico is at a crossroads," said Bruce Bagley, a Latin America expert at the University of Miami. "There's a tremendous amount at stake here."
Most of the burden for resolving the dispute rests with Mexico's electoral authorities. Created only a decade ago in a historic wave of political reforms, the Federal Electoral Institute, IFE, has become one of the most trusted institutions in the country. But the Democratic Revolution Party's heated protests are putting that vaunted image to the test.
The party angrily claims the election was fraudulent. It accused Calderon supporters of stuffing ballot boxes and even alleged that the Federal Electoral Institute was ignoring more than 1-million ballots. In one salvo after another the party has blasted the institute's handling of the election, saying that officials have consistently sided with its rivals, ignoring fraud allegations.
But the Democratic Revolution Party has so far failed to produce solid evidence. Indeed, the election was endorsed by international observers and the other political parties. The so-called uncounted ballots were tallied after all.
Even so, the party has launched a campaign of civil disobedience, staging two massive rallies in the capital, with a third planned for next Sunday.
Lopez Obrador has said he will call off the protests only if a full recount is held. But, to the consternation of many observers, he has said he will never recognize Calderon, even if the National Action Party candidate is confirmed the winner.
At best that makes absolutely no sense, observers say. Why ask for a recount, they point out, if you have no intention of respecting the result?
Widely admired for championing the rights of Mexico's poor masses, many question Lopez Obrador's political tactics. He has a long history of social agitation coupled with a tenacious, some say almost messianic, belief in his cause.
"He really is driven. He lives like a primitive Christian," said George W. Grayson, a Mexico scholar at the College of William and Mary in Virginia, who recently published a biography in Spanish of Lopez Obrador, titled Mesias Mexicano Mexican Messiah. "He really feels he is called to uplift the downtrodden."
Lopez Obrador emerged in the 1980s as an advocate for poor peasant and indigenous Indian communities in the southern state of Tabasco.
Grayson and others say his stubborn refusal to accept the election results is entirely consistent with his political career to date.
"He is good fighting evil. You can't bargain with him," said Grayson, who attended the elections as an international observer. "You could recount the ballots 100 times, but, unless one recount shows him the winner, he won't accept the results."
While some Mexicans are prepared to believe the worst of Lopez Obrador, likening him to Venezuela's leftist autocrat, Hugo Chavez, the truth may be less worrisome, some analysts say.
"There's purposeful misinterpretation of what he is trying to do," said Bagley, describing how Mexico's conservative political forces have long sought to smear Lopez Obrador's name to avoid having to deal with his constituency: Mexico's poor.
"He's not going to overthrow the system by revolution," Bagley added. "But he's not going to lie down either."
Grayson isn't so sure.
"He thinks the system is corrupt to the core and is illegitimate," he said.
In Lopez Obrador's playbook "the end justifies the means," he added. "He might not throw the first punch, but he's no Gandhi."
Those close to Lopez Obrador say his postelectoral position may seem hard for many to understand.
"He will accept a technical defeat, but he will not accept a moral defeat," said Lorenzo Meyer, a prominent university history professor and newspaper columnist who knows the candidate well.
Meyer says that Lopez Obrador's "moral" position is based on his view that the election was rigged against him from start to finish. This includes the role of current president Vicente Fox, who made political statements in the runup to the election in support of Calderon, which is strictly prohibited under Mexico's electoral laws. A defamatory media campaign against Lopez Obrador also scared away voters by unfairly characterizing him as a danger to political and economic stability.
These complaints are laid out in the Democratic Revolution Party's 800-page official complaint to the electoral tribunal that must rule on the results. The document has been ridiculed in the press for its paranoid whining about lack of fairness, and its failure to cite evidence of fraud. Instead, it alleges a sinister plot by Mexico's political and business elites to thwart Lopez Obrador. It goes as far as citing local businesses, such as Starbucks, Burger King and Domino's Pizza --as well as a TV soap opera - for allegedly influencing voters.
"The results of the election are not the reflection of the popular will of the majority of Mexican citizens because throughout the electoral process, the guiding principles of legality, independence, impartiality, objectivity ... were violated," it reads.
While the role of Fox and the media slurs may be valid, they were dealt with at the time by the Federal Electoral Institute. Critics also note that the Democratic Revolution campaign made equally defamatory remarks about Calderon and his family, while the party may also have abused public funds from the Mexico City government, which it controls.
Most of the vote count anomalies can be put down to honest mistakes, analysts say. They point out that under Mexico's system the country's 130,500 polling stations are manned by thousands of ordinary citizens selected at random who receive last-minute training. The system was introduced by the new electoral authorities as part of efforts to reduce the potential for vote-rigging by local party bosses.
Even so, many commentators argue that a full recount may be in everyone's best interests, though few doubt the result will be any different. The electoral authorities have until Aug. 31 to rule on all legal challenges.
Meanwhile, the tide of public opinion is turning against Lopez Obrador. One poll found that 60 percent of Mexicans oppose a recount. If an election were held today, another poll found, Calderon would win easily.
In the end, Lopez Obrador can live with political defeat, said Meyer. Unlike many politicians who seek office for personal ambition and/or enrichment, Lopez Obrador had more important missions in life, he added.
"He is not so motivated by politics. It's not his lifestyle," he said.
He predicted that Lopez Obrador would turn his political campaign into a social movement, comparing it to the black civil rights cause in the United States.
"I think he sees this as a beginning, when others see it as the end."
David Adams can be reached at dadams@sptimes.com. |
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