 |
|
|
 Editorials | At Issue | August 2006 
Mexico's Poll Loser Wins Support for High-Risk Plan of Non-Stop Opposition
 Adam Thomson - FT.com
| | Mariagna Prats, Mexican actress and the wife of newly elected mayor of Mexico City Marcelo Abrard, speaks during an interview inside an encampment for supporters of Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico City this week. Prats started painting classes for children inside the encampment for Lopez Obrador supporters. (AP/Gregory Bull) |
Andrés Manuel López Obrador's latest address to thousands of supporters in the Zócalo, Mexico City's main central square, was a scene Mexicans have grown used to since the leftwing leader lost out to Felipe Calderón in the country's closest election.
But beyond his criticism of the electoral authorities, his constant snipes at President Vicente Fox and his insistence that the July 2 vote was fraudulent, the thrust of the leftwing candidate's speech contained a notable change of tone.
"Never again will we allow them to install an illegal and illegitimate government in our country," he told a baying crowd. "Here and now begins a new period in Mexico . . . with the sovereign power of the people we will undertake the changes and transformations that this country needs."
For Jorge Zepeda, a political analyst in Mexico City, the speech signalled the start of a more radical phase in Mr López Obrador's campaign to reverse the result of last month's election.
For the first time since election day, for example, Mr López Obrador concentrated less on claims of election fraud and more on what he would do once Mr Calderón, candidate for Mr Fox's National Action party (PAN), was named president-elect.
These included mounting protests at every one of Mr Calderón's public acts and holding another rally in the Zócalo on September 16 - the day Mexico's armed forces traditionally parade to mark the country's independence. He also said his blockade of Mexico City's central avenue could last for years.
"He's now talking about a more permanent phase of opposition, and one in which the discourse has become far more radical," says Mr Zepeda. "It's very worrying."
Another clear danger is that a more radical resistance strategy could alienate many members of Mr López Obrador's Democratic Revolution party (PRD). Leaving aside Mr López Obrador's defeat, the party won many seats in the federal Congress and has now become the second most important force in Mexican politics.
"Sooner or later all this is going to produce a serious conflict of interests because many PRD members want a party, not a social movement," says Guillermo Val-dés, political analyst at Gea, a Mexico City consultancy.
So why is Mr López Obrador risking so much?
One reason, argues Mr Valdés, is that Mr López Obrador, who enjoys strong support in Mexico City, is convinced his political platform is morally superior to that of his adversaries. "López Obrador sees this as a political fight between good and bad," he says. "It is not an electoral fight any more."
But Manuel Camacho, one of Mr López Obrador's key strategists, says the struggle remains centred on tangible facts of fraud. The latest proof of that, he argues, is the long list of "irregularities" that have surfaced from a partial recount of the votes ordered last week by Mexico's electoral tribunal.
He says the recount has already shown that a huge number of ballot boxes contained more votes than there were people on the electoral register: "If the tribunal annulled those ballot boxes - a step they are obliged to take legally - Andrés Manuel would win the election by almost 29,000 votes."
Unsurprisingly, perhaps, members of Mr Calderón's party do not agree.
Mr Valdés says Mr López Obrador's increasingly belligerent stance could create a violent confrontation with Mr Fox's administration.
For days Mr Fox kept uncharacteristically silent over Mr López Obrador's actions and comments. But his self-control appears to have weakened; on Monday he vowed to ensure the next president would take up his position on December 1 come what may. The same day, federal police clashed with PRD supporters outside Congress. Twenty people were injured, 15 of whom were PRD members of Congress.
What happens next could depend on how members of Mr López Obrador's party react to the tribunal's final ruling on the election: it must proclaim a president-elect by September 6.
Until then Mr López Obrador appears intent on playing a dangerous game of chicken with the rest of Mexico's political leaders. "He is speeding at full throttle towards the cliff to see who takes his foot off the accelerator first," says Mr Valdés. |
| |
|
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us