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 Editorials | At Issue | August 2006 
Uncertainty Surrounds Mexican Election Protest
 Hector Tobar - LATimes
| | Catholics block the main access to the Metropolitan Cathedral to prevent supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution from entering the catholic church to promote a full recount of the disputed July 2 presidential election, in downtown Mexico City August 20, 2006. (Reuters/Tomas Bravo) |
A line of armored vehicles awaits outside Mexico's Congress building. Most are brand new and have never seen action. But many Mexicans wonder if their menacing presence is a harbinger of this divided country's future.
Federal authorities deployed the tanks to prevent supporters of leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador from shutting down Mexico's legislature in a bid to pressure the Federal Electoral Tribunal to order a full recount of all 41 million votes in this country's disputed July 2 presidential election.
Tuesday, a street battle erupted outside the Congress building when federal police arrived to disperse López Obrador's supporters. A handful of congressmen were bruised in the melee.
"What happened at the Legislative Palace may be a rehearsal for what we can expect after the tribunal renders its final decision," said Leo Zuckerman, an analyst here. "López Obrador knows he won't win before the tribunal. . . . What he is trying to accomplish now is to start a social movement."
The tribunal's seven judges have until early September to declare a winner, but a decision is expected sooner.
Conservative candidate Felipe Calderón led López Obrador in the initial count by 244,000 votes. According to news reports and figures provided by the two campaigns, the partial recount will narrow Calderón's lead -- but only by 7,000 to 13,000 votes.
Legal experts say the tribunal is not likely to order a full recount, although the judges could annul the election and order a new vote for next year.
Some members of López Obrador's leftist Democratic Revolution Party (known as the PRD, its Spanish acronym) have said they will launch a sustained, nationwide program of civil disobedience if the tribunal declares Calderón the winner.
As the election saga reaches its endgame, there are indications that some members of the PRD would balk at taking the radical actions others in the party favor.
"Violence and riots in the streets are a less probable outcome than many people in Mexico think," said Pamela Starr of Eurasia Group, a risk-analysis company. "But I wouldn't discount it either."
López Obrador's supporters have shut down Avenida Reforma, the city's central axis, since July 30.
Many residents feel López Obrador's supporters are holding the capital hostage.
"The blockade . . . is an act of profound callousness that hurts a cause that belongs to many people," Carlos Monsivais and three other prominent leftist writers said in an open letter to López Obrador. "Why pressure the powerful with actions that first and foremost hurt the popular classes?" |
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