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 Editorials | Opinions | August 2006 
Cuba Without Castro
 Ian Bremmer - ABC News
| | Cuba's ailing communist leader Fidel Castro, seen here in July 2006. A chorus of mixed messages was swelling as to whether and when Castro might return to power, almost a week after he shocked Cuba by ceding his authority temporarily for the first time in almost 48 years. (AFP/Juan Mabromata) |
Fidel Castro has survived 47 years of U.S. efforts to undermine his regime. In the process, he has become an icon, a symbol of the Cuban revolution's durability. But as he left the stage following a televised speech in October 2004, the Cuban strongman tripped, shattered his left knee into eight pieces, and knocked the wind from the Cuban people.
Later that day, state-run media reported that at no time during his three-hour, 15-minute surgery did Castro lose consciousness or pass executive authority to anyone else. True or not, the dictator apparently feared what might happen if the world believed he had relaxed his grip on power, even for an afternoon.
On July 31, just days from his 80th birthday, intestinal bleeding forced Castro under the knife again, and this time he had no choice but to publicly hand over power to his 75-year-old brother, Raul. Reports from the island suggest el comandante is feeling much better, though he has not yet appeared in ppublic. But not since 1959 has another man ruled Cuba, even temporarily. Plans for Cuba without Castro have now begun in earnest.
What does this mean for the island's future? Cuba has known both reform and repression in recent years. Following the collapse of Castro's Soviet benefactor in 1991, the Cuban economy fell on hard times. Desperate to survive what Cubans call the "special period" and mindful of the success of China's market reforms, Castro decided reluctantly in 1993 to experiment with capitalism, granting his people limited freedom to open small businesses in dozens of economic sectors.
But economic reforms generated calls for political change, most notably when a group of dissidents created an initiative called the Varela Project and presented the government with a petition demanding, among other things, freedom of speech and the press. In 2003, Castro jailed two dozen members of the organization and 50 other human rights advocates. Castro has since tightened state control of the economy and limited the public's access to U.S. dollars and the Internet.
What can we expect from Castro's heirs? A return to capitalist experimentation, or reinforcements for Cuba's police state? Whenever Castro dies, the first impact will be uncertainty. Cuba, like many authoritarian states, has a president but not a presidency. Fidel Castro is the revolution, and the revolution is Cuba. Without Fidel, the new Cuba faces tough choices and possibly political turmoil, something the island hasn't experienced in four decades.
If Fidel dies soon, Raul, whose revolutionary credentials are second only to his brother's, will probably succeed him. Some say the younger Castro spearheaded Cuba's economic reform movement. Others insist he is even more ideologically hidebound than Fidel. Virtually all agree that Raul lacks his brother's charisma and his talent for holding an audience spellbound.
Given Raul's age, his presidency would probably be a brief one, and plans for his departure won't have 47 years to develop. He is likely to share power behind the scenes with younger regime heavyweights like Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque and economic czar Carlos Lage. Ambitious reform is unlikely, since Raul's position would probably depend on holding together a consensus within the government.
Raul's first task will probably be nothing more ambitious than the consolidation of power. His control of the armed forces will help. Trusted family friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, will probably be glad to pitch in. Chavez already provides Cuba with well over half the oil it needs, and at cut-rate prices. That oil continues to cross the Caribbean, even when Cuba is slow to pay.
With the younger Castro in charge, the U.S embargo would almost certainly remain in place. That's too bad. Since 1960, sanctions have imposed hardships on the Cuban people, strengthened Castro's ability to deny them the resources they need to establish some independence from their government, and alienated U.S. allies. But sanctions have not loosened Castro's grip on Cuba.
The real transition will begin when power finally falls to the next generation of leaders. On that day, the Cuban people, 70 percent of whom are too young to remember a world without Fidel, may feel free to question, at least privately, why Cuba is governed as it is. And those in Washington who hope to end the embargo will have an unprecedented opportunity to make their case.
That day has not yet arrived. But as Castro recovers from serious surgery and Raul governs in his absence, plans for Cuba post-Castro are now well under way, across the island and beyond.
Ian Bremmer is president of the Eurasia Group, a global political risk advisory and consulting firm. He also wrote "The J Curve: A New Way To Understand Why Nations Rise & Fall." |
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