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 Editorials | At Issue | September 2006 
Mexico Leftist Adrift on Streets After Vote Loss
 Alistair Bell - Reuters
| | Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, gesturing from his tent in Mexico City's Zocalo plaza, promises to set up a shadow government. (Marco Ugarte/AP) |
He was an inch away from becoming Mexico's president but now Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador sleeps every night in a rainy square with the future of his anti-poverty movement in serious doubt.
Leftist candidate Lopez Obrador lost all hope of winning power when a court this week named rival Felipe Calderon president-elect, after throwing out the left's claims of fraud at a July vote.
Supporters are deserting huge sit-ins that have paralyzed the center of Mexico City for almost six weeks in support of Lopez Obrador's claims of vote rigging.
"There's been a lot of disillusionment, a lot of disappointment after the court's decision," said Ramon Rojas, 34, serving breakfast at an almost empty field kitchen among tents pitched by protesters on the main Reforma avenue.
Demonstrators say many have become ill from camping in the street in the last 40 days and nights of deluges during Mexico's tropical rainy season.
As part of the sit-in, former Indian welfare officer Lopez Obrador sleeps in a tent in the huge Zocalo square where he rallies supporters' spirits with speeches almost nightly promising to end corruption and work for the poor.
But with six years until the next presidential election and some allies talking of abandoning him, Lopez Obrador appears to be drifting politically.
"The path for him is not clear," said political scientist Pedro de la Cruz.
"It is difficult to say where he is trying to go," said analyst Jose Antonio Crespo.
A civil resistance campaign has faded after a strong start in August when Lopez Obrador followers blocked access to foreign banks and seized highway toll booths.
"It's very difficult to keep up spectacular actions of civil resistance for so many weeks," said Horacio Duarte, one of the leftist leader's closest aides.
LOSING FRIENDS
The small Convergencia party, one of three groups in a coalition that backed Lopez Obrador's run for the presidency, has defied the leftist leader and recognized conservative Calderon as president.
Some leftist state governors say they will work with the conservative, who beat Lopez Obrador by just 0.56 percentage points in the July 2 election.
Leftists will decide their leader's future at a rally in the Zocalo square on Mexico's September 16 independence day.
Organizers, who hope 1 million people will attend, say the meeting might choose to take a hard line and nominate Lopez Obrador as head of a resistance campaign, signaling more protests and civil disobedience.
It is more likely to announce a mostly symbolic "alternative government" that would appear to be little more than a normal political opposition to Calderon.
"What we are proposing could be a dream. It might not bear fruit, it might fail, but we have the confidence and the responsibility to do it," Lopez Obrador said this week.
Although there has been no violence in weeks of protests, possible flashpoints are a planned speech by conservative President Vicente Fox in the Zocalo on the eve of independence day and a military parade there the next day.
A fiery speaker with a stubborn streak, Lopez Obrador is beginning to acknowledge errors in his election campaign, where he threw away a lead of over 10 points in opinion polls.
"He doesn't like doing it in public, but in truth there is self-criticism," said advisor Duarte.
Lopez Obrador lost support after attacking the popular Fox and refusing to attend a televised debate between candidates.
Analysts say his sometimes abrasive style and failure to respond to negative campaigning that painted him as a dangerous populist also lost Lopez Obrador votes. |
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