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 Editorials | Issues | October 2006 
Democrats Are Daring to Believe
 Adam Nagourney and Robin Toner - NYTimes
| | Former President Bill Clinton speaks before attending a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee event in Chicago, Monday, Oct. 23, 2006. Clinton is in Chicago to help raise money for Democrats Tammy Duckworth, candidate for the U.S. House in Illinois 6th Congressional District, and Rep. Melissa Bean, in her re-election bid in the 8th District. (AP/Charles Rex Arbogast) |
There is something unusual bubbling in Democratic political waters these days: optimism.
With each new delivery of bad news for Republicans - another Republican congressman under investigation, another Republican district conceded, another poll showing support for the Republican-controlled Congress collapsing - a party that has become so used to losing is considering, disbelievingly and with the requisite worry, the possibility that it could actually win in November.
"I've moved from optimistic to giddy," said Gordon R. Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. "I really have."
Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, who is in line to become chairman of the Financial Services Committee in a Democratic House, offered wry evidence of the changing perception of the race. His office, Mr. Frank said, has been contacted by a portrait-painting firm offering to talk about possibilities for the traditional committee chairman's painting, one of those perks of power long absent from the lives of House Democrats.
"I've acquired a lot of new friends this year," Mr. Frank said. "And I haven't gotten any nicer."
For Democrats these days, life is one measure glee, one measure dread and one measure hubris. If they are as confident as they have been in a decade about regaining at least one house of Congress - and they are - it is a confidence tempered by the searing memories of being outmaneuvered, for three elections straight, by superior Republican organizing and financial strength, and by continued wariness about the political skills of President Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove.
Mr. Rove has made it clear that he considers Democratic optimism unjustified, predicting that his party's cash advantage and get-out-the-vote expertise will dash Democratic dreams yet again. And Democrats say they welcome every passing dawn with relief, fearful that the next one will bring a development that could fundamentally alter the nature of the race, like the re-emergence of Osama bin Laden on election eve, which is what happened in 2004.
"I know a lot of people are in somersault land," Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said reproachfully of fellow Democrats. "I just don't have the liberty and freedom to do that."
Still, Democratic ebullience could be found in all corners of Washington over the past few days. It was palpable at social and work gatherings, where Democrats traded gossip about how big a Democratic majority in the House could be; in Capitol Hill conference rooms, where Democrats were preparing transition plans (under orders to keep them quiet); and in offices of Democratic strategists and pollsters, who were drawing up growing lists of Republicans who might be vulnerable.
"I feel better than I ever have," said Representative Louise M. Slaughter, a Democrat from upstate New York. "I think we have the best chance to take over simply because of the pileup of disasters."
Stanley B. Greenberg, who was the White House pollster for President Bill Clinton in 1994 when Republicans shocked Democrats by capturing the House, commissioned a poll recently and e-mailed it around town with a single-word headline: "Meltdown." In an interview, Mr. Greenberg said, "I don't see how we can lose the House; I don't think it's even close."
Ellen R. Malcolm, president of Emily's List, a Democratic women's network, and a longtime Democratic fund-raiser, said Democratic trepidations were beginning to melt away with each passing news cycle. "People are getting more encouraged by the day," Ms. Malcolm said. "Every poll that comes in seems to be better than the one before."
Representative Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, who is in line to become speaker if her party wins the House, has put out the word that no one should be talking with too much certainty or detail about the days after Nov. 7. But even Ms. Pelosi has slipped on occasion. In a recent interview with The Associated Press, when asked which suite of offices she would use as speaker, she said with a laugh, "I'll have any suite I want."
The change in mood, and evidence of Democratic strength in the polls and in fund-raising, is feeding some crucial deliberations by Democratic leaders as the discussion in some quarters goes from whether Democrats can win to how large a margin the party can gain.
Democratic candidates in districts that had been considered long shots are now pleading with Mr. Emanuel's committee to send money their way. And some leading Democrats, among them Mr. Greenberg, are urging Mr. Emanuel to seize the moment by expanding the field in which Democrats are competing, saying the party has a chance to cement a big lead in the House in November.
This argument has worried some Democratic strategists, who warn that overconfidence could press party leaders into making decisions that may siphon resources from closely fought races and risk the Democrats' advantage. "On the House side, it makes sense to be focusing on 25 seats to win 14, not 50," said Steve Rosenthal, a political and labor consultant with close ties to the party, who described many Democrats as "overenthused."
"If we had unlimited resources it would be different," Mr. Rosenthal said. "But we have to be careful."
Mr. Emanuel said he was polling to see where the party might move next. But he said that barring some last-minute infusion of money, he was considering a relatively limited increase in the number of seats where Democrats would spend. In the past week, Democrats have expanded their field to just over 40 races from about 35, running advertisements against Republicans they consider newly vulnerable in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, upstate New York and Washington State.
Some Democrats have expressed apprehension that this exuberance may be irrational, or at least premature, and are counseling restraint. Part of that is tactical: Democrats are trying not to help the Republican Party as it works to turn out its conservative base by presenting apocalyptic visions of a Congress led by liberals like Mr. Frank, Ms. Pelosi and Representative Charles B. Rangel of New York.
Part of the Democrats' queasiness stems from painful familiarity with Mr. Rove's record of success, and from their own recognition that they hold only slim leads in many races and could yet fall victim to an assertive and sophisticated Republican turnout operation.
"I'm a little concerned that we are spending all our time talking about what our agenda will be in January rather than how we are going to get our votes out in early November," said Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party.
Some of that concern is about the long-term psychic damage the party's rank-and-file may suffer if Democrats collapse at the finish line again. "We've all had these disappointments that contain our enthusiasm as we look to the last few weeks of this race," said Tom Daschle, the Senate Democratic leader defeated in 2004.
Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic strategist who advised the presidential campaign of Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, said: "We all sat around in 2004 and looked at exit polls that said John Kerry was going to be president. And that was wrong. We've been up this hill before."
To win the House, Democrats must capture 15 seats. Of the 40 or so they see in play, at most 5 are held by Democrats, strategists for both sides say.
The prospects for a Democratic takeover in the Senate, where the party needs six seats, are tougher. Republicans say four of their incumbents are in serious danger of losing - in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island - and are trying to build a firewall by pouring most of their resources into Senate races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, where polls show the contests even.
Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his committee, which has consistently out-raised its Republican counterpart this year, had more than enough money to compete with the Republicans in those states. Mr. Schumer said he was holding back some resources in case Republicans made an unexpected move in the final days of the campaign.
"They keep trying to pull rabbits out of the hat, but none of them come out," he said. "But we are holding some money in abeyance for some kind of October surprise."
While there may be a price to overconfidence, in a sense of complacency at some campaign headquarters, there are advantages at the grass-roots level, where it can fuel the excitement that Democrats hope will result in significant gains on Nov. 7. Republicans face the flip side of this problem, with the prospect that their voters, discouraged by the party's travails, will stay home.
All this has put Democrats in an unfamiliar place, but one they seem to be enjoying. "I'm a congenital pessimist," said Howard Wolfson, a consultant advising Democrats in several competitive contests in upstate New York. "But I'm as bullish on our chances as I have been at any time over the last 12 years."
Democrats Strengthen Chances for Senate
Charles Babington & Dan Balz - Washington Post
| | Potential Democratic House leaders and Democrats positioned to become committee chairmen if their party should win back a majority in the House in November 2006: From top left to right, potential Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.; potential Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; Agriculture: Collin Peterson, D-Minn.; Appropriations: David Obey, D-Wis.; Armed Services: Ike Skelton, D-Mo.; Budget: John Spratt, D-S.C.; Education and the Workforce: George Miller, D-Calif.; Energy and Commerce: John Dingell, D-Mich.; Financial Services: Barney Frank, D-Mass.; Government Reform: Henry Waxman, D-Calif. |
Democrats in the past two weeks have significantly improved their chances of taking control of the Senate, according to polls and independent analysts, with the battle now focused intensely on three states in the Midwest and upper South: Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
Democratic challengers are in strong positions against GOP incumbents in four states - Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island - a trend that leaves the party looking for just two more seats to reclaim the majority. The main targets are states where Republicans in recent years have dominated but this year find themselves in hotly competitive races.
Except for a brief period in 2001 and 2002, Republicans have held power in the Senate continuously since the 1994 elections and now hold 55 of 100 seats. Only last year, Senate Democratic Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) said it would take "a miracle" for his party to win control. But the same issues that are leading many pollsters and strategists to predict a Democratic takeover of the House - including the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war - have made a turnover in the Senate more plausible.
Democrats are gleeful about the prospect of reversing years-long political trends against them in such places as Montana and Ohio, as well as Southern states such as Tennessee and Virginia. But recent history highlights how difficult it is for Democrats to compete in places where Republicans usually win at the presidential and congressional levels. Two years ago, as Bush was winning reelection, Democrats lost Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and South Dakota.
Analysts say, however, that this year's political environment is much more toxic for the GOP.
"The Democrats are going to gain somewhere between four and seven seats," said Stuart Rothenberg, author of an independent newsletter that tracks campaigns nationwide. Of the battlegrounds of Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri, he said, "They need two of the three, and they have a pretty good chance" of winning them.
In four other states, Republican incumbents - Conrad Burns (Mont.), Lincoln D. Chafee (R.I.), Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Rick Santorum (Pa.) - are all running behind in the latest public polls. Assuming that Democrats hold New Jersey, where Sen. Robert Menendez (D) hopes the state's traditional Democratic tilt will carry him past hard-charging Tom Kean Jr. (R), they would need to grab two more Republican-held seats to gain a 51 to 49 edge. (An evenly split Senate would remain under GOP control because Vice President Cheney would break the tie).
In Virginia, Sen. George Allen (R) was cruising toward reelection until he referred to a Democratic worker of Indian descent as "macaca" at a campaign event, clumsily handled revelations of his Jewish heritage and seemingly lost his once-easy touch with Old Dominion voters. Democratic nominee James Webb is not a natural campaigner, Capitol Hill Democratic operatives acknowledge, but he has surged within striking distance of Allen in polls.
With two weeks to go, supporters hope Allen makes no more gaffes and can coax state voters to return to their habit of backing Republicans in federal elections.
"I think Allen has moved into a small but statistically valid lead," said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), a close student of campaigns. "Allen needs to get his [conservative] base voters out, and he needs to not take another hit." A Virginia ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage may bring social conservatives to the polls, Davis said, but it will do little for moderate Republicans who also are crucial to Allen's success.
In the race for an open seat in Tennessee, Republicans believe Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, has turned his campaign around after replacing his campaign manager and is now more focused and aggressive. Democrats concede that Corker has cut into the lead of Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) but are counting on Ford's campaign skills to carry him through the final weeks.
Eight-term Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), who lost a 1994 Senate bid and whose father was a Tennessee governor, said he has never seen anything to match the enthusiasm surrounding Ford, an African American from Memphis. A sold-out Oct. 19 prayer breakfast in Nashville that featured Ford "was the most exciting and successful political event I've ever been to in Tennessee," Cooper said.
Strategists see Missouri as perhaps the purest test of whether Republicans can overcome a strong Democratic headwind this year because there are few state-related factors or scandals affecting the contest. Neither Sen. James M. Talent (R) nor the challenger, state auditor Claire McCaskill (D), has been able to gain a clear advantage, and strategists on both sides anticipate a photo finish.
If Talent loses, "it will be because of the environment," one senior GOP strategist said. "If Corker loses [in Tennessee], you can point to some big strategic mistakes."
Until recently, almost no one on Capitol Hill was talking seriously of a possible Democratic Senate takeover, for several reasons. Open seats generally are easier for the opposition party to win, but this year, just one Republican incumbent, Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), is retiring. Geography is even more challenging. Democrats must win several races in Red America, where through most of Bush's presidency, Republicans have deepened their hold on elective offices, most notably in the South. This year, only two of the seven most vulnerable Republican Senate seats are in states carried by Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004: Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. The others - Ohio, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia - were Bush states in 2000 and 2004.
"I don't think it was ever a map for taking back the majority," said one Democratic strategist, who declined to be identified in order to provide candid information about the campaigns. "But the very fact of it is, we get closer to winning the majority every single week."
Republicans depend in particular on the South for their Senate majority. They now hold 18 of the 22 Senate seats in the former Confederate states, a 14-seat advantage in that region alone. Republicans remain entrenched in the Deep South, but their advantages in upper South states are less strong, says Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University and the co-author with his brother Earl Black of a series of books about Southern politics.
"What we see across the Deep South is a lot of Republican strength," he said. "Those upper South states are where Democrats can campaign effectively against Republicans. I wouldn't make them favorites, but if trends break in their favor, they could win both of those seats."
Santorum, seeking a third term, and Burns, trying for a fourth, have been in trouble for months. Chafee, who is such a maverick Republican that he did not support Bush for reelection in 2004, survived a difficult primary, but only with late help from the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He now trails former state attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic and strongly anti-Bush. His biggest hope lies in the unusually large number of undecided voters in a state where the Chafee name is well-regarded, said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
DeWine always expected a tough reelection race because of the sour national mood and scandals in Ohio that have left Gov. Bob Taft (R) with an approval rating barely in double digits and Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) on his way to prison for his involvement in the scandal involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Ohio voters appear ready to take out their anger on the party that has controlled state politics since the early 1990s.
But DeWine's race has turned from a toss-up to one favoring his rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, in a matter of weeks. Recent polls show Brown leading by seven to 14 percentage points. Republicans blame the Mark Foley scandal.
"The Foley thing had a more corrosive effect there than in other places," said one pessimistic GOP strategist. "Voters were softened to scandal." |
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