 |
|
|
 Editorials | Environmental | January 2007 
High Temps Could Disrupt Agriculture
 Jonathan Roeder - Herald Mexico
| | A locust plague is casting a shadow on the south-eastern Mexican state of Yucatan by threatening around 5,000 hectares of crops and much of the region's vegetation. (AP/Dario Lopez) |
If a report predicting record high temperatures for 2007 is accurate, Mexico can expect drought and flooding along with disruptions in agricultural production, one of the nation´s top meteorologists said Thursday.
Scientists with the British Meteorological Office on Thursday said El Niño - a phenomenon in which warmer Pacific surface waters lead to unusual weather - and rising levels of greenhouse gases could combine to make this year the hottest ever.
Valentina Davydova, subdirector for Mexico´s National Meteorological System, warned that it was unclear how higher global temperatures would affect Mexico, or if the British prediction would prove correct.
If it does, however, "it won´t be very favorable for us (here in Mexico)," Davydova said.
"Climate change implies not only temperature change but also an increase in extreme weather, such as prolonged droughts and more intense rains that fall with greater frequency," she said.
On the effects of global warming in Mexico, Davydova said there was a slight increase in temperatures over the last 30-year period when compared with the 30- year period preceding it.
While noting that it was currently impossible to determine the cause, she cited deforestation and the growth of urban areas as likely culprits, along with the global trend toward warmer weather. She added that the effects of warming would likely be less drastic in Mexico than in regions farther north, such as the United States and Europe.
One possible repercussion of warming, however, could be a growth of Mexico´s large expanses of desert, due to drought. This in turn could hurt agricultural production and cause a loss in farmlands, Davydova said.
"We have to make a decision to prepare with precision and care, not just this year or during this six- year presidential term, but for the next 10, 20, ... 50 years," she said.
British meteorologists estimate there is a 60 percent chance that temperatures in 2007 could be slightly higher than in 1998, currently the hottest year on record.
Meanwhile, El Niño, which occurs irregularly, may cause droughts in Australia along with fewer Atlantic hurricanes and fiercer storms in the Pacific.
When asked about the predictions, Carlos Bayo, head of the National Disaster Fund (Fonden), said Mexico was ready for anything that Mother Nature could conjure up.
"The country is ready for any catastrophe that could occur," Bayo said during a news conference on Thursday, adding that extreme weather was impossible to accurately predict.
The National Disaster Fund provides financial relief when local administrations are unable to effectively cope with a crisis.
However, Alejandro Nadal, an economist specializing in science and technology, expressed pessimism about Mexico´s state of readiness for a natural disaster, saying the network of civil protection agencies is "deficient."
"There is no one in the government who is thinking of a long- term strategy, especially as to problems (such as climate change)," said Nadal, who directs programs on technology and development at the Colegio de México. "I don´t see any serious analysis being done on how this could impact Mexican agriculture."
If the warming trend continues, Nadal said the nation should brace for longer droughts and damage from erosion.
Extended droughts have strained water supplies in the north in recent years, while Chiapas and the Yucatán Peninsula were battered by hurricanes in 2005. |
| |
|
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us