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 Editorials | Issues | March 2007 
Mexico Key Stop on Bush's Trip
 BYLINE
| | U.S. President George W. Bush dons his coat as he walks along the coast from Marine One after returning to Montevideo from the presidential retreat in Anchorena Park, Uruguay, March 10, 2007. Bush met with Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez at Achorena Park and conducted a joint news conference there. (Reuters/Jason Reed) |
The opportunity to jump-start U.S.-Mexico relations couldn't come soon enough for President Bush and Mexican President Felipe Calderon when the two meet for their first summit Tuesday as part of Bush's swing through Latin America.
In many eyes, Bush could use an ally like the conservative, pro-business Calderon as he tries to counter growing Latin American unease with the U.S. model of free trade and liberal economies, a key goal of his weeklong swing through the hemisphere.
Calderon, whose election victory in July was bitterly disputed, is still working to establish his government's legitimacy and would benefit greatly from a renewed push for a U.S. immigration accord to legalize millions of undocumented Mexican immigrants.
The two-day meeting will begin Tuesday in the eastern city of Merida. Government officials and experts say the coming months are a key window for U.S.-Mexico relations as Calderon shapes his foreign policy for the next six years and Bush considers whether immigration reform could be part of his legacy.
Jorge Castaneda, the first foreign minister under President Vicente Fox, Calderon's predecessor, said the U.S. must recognize Mexico's growing value as a counterweight to Venezuela President Hugo Chavez's socialist vision for the hemisphere. Mexico, in turn, must make its case even more strongly that immigration reform would benefit both countries.
"The U.S. is beginning to understand that its best possible partner in the region is Mexico," Castaneda said in an interview. "If Bush wants Mexico as a partner, he has to put up. And putting up means the immigration issue. Period."
Castaneda personally felt Mexico's frustration in 2001 after President Bush promised that Latin America would be a priority for his administration, visiting Mexico just four weeks into his first term, only to have the southern neighbor abruptly fall off the radar after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
While Bush and Fox found common ground in their shared history as border governors and ranchers, the personal dynamic between Bush and Calderon is still evolving.
But Calderon has already won praise from the U.S. for his results, not his style. Calderon has dispatched the military to the most violent regions of the country and in January authorized the historic extradition of 15 drug traffickers and violent criminals in one day, including several drug kingpins.
Bush said at a roundtable of Latin American journalists in Washington last week that Calderon "has shown courage because he is committing the stake to take on some very powerful, very rich and very lethal people."
Both nations see the security question as intertwined with immigration reform.
Mexico remains the largest foreign supplier of marijuana to the U.S., and 90 percent of all cocaine consumed by Americans passes through Mexico, according to a State Department report released this month. Dangerous criminals are crossing the border along with ordinary citizens pursuing jobs in Chicago and elsewhere.
Bush told the journalists that a proposal to bring in temporary workers from Mexico would reduce the incentive for Mexican workers to cross illegally. That would let the Border Patrol better focus its resources on drug traffickers, he said.
In recent weeks, Calderon has acknowledged the Mexican government's responsibility in creating jobs and attracting foreign investment that would reduce his countrymen's need to leave in search of economic opportunities.
But if Calderon hopes to attract investment to stem illegal immigration, he must reduce the shocking acts of violence seen between warring drug gangs, which have included decapitations, said Jorge Chabat, a foreign-policy analyst with the Center for Economic Research and Teaching.
"For those who invest a dollar in Mexico, what happens when they see photos of human heads on the front page? You envision a country in a civil war," Chabat said.
Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said Calderon could win points on Capitol Hill by casting illegal immigration as a shared responsibility. Even to supporters, Fox often struck the wrong tone by sounding as if he believes the U.S. owes Mexico an immigration accord, Selee said.
"This is the first administration that understands that they have to say, again and again, that ultimately immigration is our responsibility," Selee said. "First of all, it is right. But it is also politically savvy if they have hope of influencing the debate here."
In a sign that the push for immigration reform is intensifying, the organizers of last year's massive marches have planned another rally for the Loop on Saturday that will call for legalization and a moratorium on deportations, part of a 50-day lobbying push that includes labor and religious groups.
Fox staked much of his political capital on hopes that the U.S. would address the millions of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the U.S., with Castaneda famously declaring that Mexico wanted "the whole enchilada," meaning comprehensive reform legislation that would deal with all facets of the issue.
Analysts say Calderon has rightly taken a lower-profile approach to immigration, although diplomats have pledged an intense lobbying effort. Carlos Sada, the longtime consul general in Chicago, will be charged with lobbying members of Congress.
Castaneda said he hopes Calderon casts himself even more strongly as a U.S. ally while taking on Chavez. But Mexican analysts say Calderon's domestic footing is still too shaky to be seen as too much of a U.S. booster in a country with a strong anti-American streak in some quarters.
Bush did not help matters in a pre-trip interview Tuesday when he said it would be "positive" if Mexico allowed private investment into Pemex, or Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil concern. The comment made front-page news in Mexico and triggered heated criticism from opposition legislators who oppose any foreign control of Mexico's oil.
Ana Maria Salazar, a former U.S. government official and Mexico City political analyst, said Bush's comments threatened to overshadow the visit. "It is a subject that is so thorny in Mexico, that every time the U.S. touches it, it creates a lot of harm," she said.
Silviano Aureoles, a senator with the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party, said Calderon has continued "a style of subordination to the government to the north, not a dignified position."
Granco Ramirez, another PRD senator, said Bush's comments underscored how Calderon has not articulated a clear-enough vision for Pemex, free trade, illegal immigration and a host of other issues.
"It is a foreign policy that floats along like a cork," Ramirez said. "He has no strategy."
Still, U.S. and Mexican government officials have cast their relations as improving after a few bumps, including U.S. plans to extend a wall along its southern border and Mexico's refusal in the UN Security Council to support the invasion of Iraq.
Salazar and Chabat said they expect the Merida meeting to lay the groundwork for increased cooperation on curbing drug trafficking and sharing intelligence to combat terrorism. The implementation of the 1994 North America Free Trade Agreement also is progressing, with the U.S. agreeing last month to admit Mexican trucks, at least as a one-year pilot project beginning in May.
Jose Luis Valdes, director of the Mexico City-based Center for Research on North America, said that Calderon's low-key approach to foreign policy has worked so far but that Mexican citizens will eventually expect him to be a forceful partner with the U.S.
"The U.S. has taken for granted that Mexico is an unconditional ally," Valdes said. "It needs to be a business relationship, not a friendship. Friends go down the same road, no matter what. Business partners negotiate and find common interests."
oavila@tribune.com |
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