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 Editorials | March 2007 
Jury Still Out on Calderón
 Kelly Arthur Garrett - The Herald Mexico
| | A week of media chatter by political analysts, occasioned by Calderón's milestone 100th day in office Saturday, indicates the jury is still out on the president's big- picture performance. |
The praise began pouring in for Felipe Calderón's performance almost as soon as he took office on Dec. 1.
"So far, so good," one typical newspaper editorial was headed.
"An enormous leap forward," said one official not connected to the president.
"Awesome ... a perfect 10!" gushed one scholar. "A better start than any president in recent history."
The downside: Those quotes, and countless others like them, all came from the United States.
Here in Mexico - the nation Calderón actually governs - the view is more nuanced and the mood more wary.
Most Mexicans do seem willing to give their new leader a chance to fix the country. Polls show him with good popularity ratings. Even a full one-third of those who think the election he rode to power was rigged give him a favorable rating anyway.
But a week of media chatter by political analysts, occasioned by Calderón's milestone 100th day in office Saturday, indicates the jury is still out on the president's big- picture performance.
That big picture, analysts have been saying all week, is defined by three conditions - Calderón's ability to govern effectively, his willingness to take on monopolies and other de facto powers, and what might be called the legitimacy question.
"Legitimacy" isn't just about his chief campaign opponent's claim that Calderón stole the election through fraud and illegal campaigning. It also has to do with what is known elsewhere as a mandate.
Simply put, doubt lingers about whether the voters actually endorsed Calderón's conservative, market-based economic convictions.
"What came into play in many votes wasn't any love for Cal- derón but a fear of (chief rival Andrés Manuel) López Obrador," said journalist and political analyst Jorge Zepeda Patterson, referring to Calderón's successful campaign strategy of associating his opponent with the notion of "danger."
"There were more votes against López Obrador than in favor of Calderón, because the negative campaign worked," he says.
That raises concern on the left and hope on the right that Calderón will increasingly govern more conservatively than the country wants.
He is under pressure to do just that from the religious-right wing of his National Action Party (PAN), led by Manuel Espino, a rival who expends more energy promoting the Latin American organization of Christian Democratic parties he heads than supporting the president.
"This friendly fire is what's hurt Calderón most up to now," Zepeda said. "Espino wants to co-govern with Felipe."
The party schism surfaced again in January when Health Secretary José Ángel Córdoba hinted he would abandon long-established government policies advocating condom use. Calderón put out that fire quickly.
"He (Córdoba) said a stupid thing and was immediately shushed," said Sergio Aguayo, an international studies professor at the Colegio de México. "Calder- ón's Cabinet is very disciplined."
Most of Calderón's announced social and public works programs have been centrist or non-ideological. At least one - free lifetime medical care for every baby born during his term - even smacks of the "populism" he scorned during the campaign.
But other initiatives have a decidedly rightward lean to them.
A recent controversial decision was to turn to the private sector for new highway financing and operation, a policy mostly abandoned in the mid-90s after a series of maintenance failures and bankruptcies.
The president insists private concessions are the only way to get the much-needed roads built.
Calderón's boldest and most popular action was to send the military into his home state of Michoacán to flush out organized crime strongholds. Similar operations in Baja California, Guerrero and other states soon followed.
Mexicans, frustrated after six years of seeming government impotence in the face of mounting mob murders, supported the actions.
The military offensive against drug traffickers also helped toughen Calderón's wonkish image, as it was clearly intended to do. The president even showed up at a Michoacán military rally clad in military attire, an against-type fashion statement that set off a feeding frenzy among political cartoonists.
The early euphoria is already yielding to skepticism, though.
The operations' concrete results have been ambiguous and limited. And history teaches that any gains against the cartels will be temporary.
"These operations aren't for capturing drug lords," said historian and political scientist Lorenzo Meyer. "They're for the public's imagination."
Calderón's ability to get reforms through a divided Congress - a failing of his predecessor - has yet to be tested. The budget process in December was relatively painless, with only Calderón's curious attempt to cut higher education funds seriously challenged by deputies.
The president's PAN has a plurality but no majority in both houses. Ad hoc alliances won't come easy, because both major opposition parties are in a state of internal crisis. Their leaders' attention will be directed at rehabilitating their own house.
Analysts from across the political spectrum agree that Calderón's best chance to reduce poverty and inequality - the top priority of any Mexican president - depends on ending the reign of monopolies and unofficial strongmen.
The challenge was illustrated in January when tortilla prices shot up by 40 percent virtually overnight due in part to speculation and monopolistic practices.
Calderón has yet to make a move against the monopolies.
"Felipe hasn't found a way to distance himself from the powerful who feel they are responsible for placing him in Los Pinos in the first place," Zepeda said. |
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