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 Editorials | Issues | April 2007 
On Narco Killings and Mexican Political Accords
 Enrique Andrade González - MexiData.info
Today, some five months into the six-year term of Mexican President Felipe Calderón, the people of Mexico are experiencing an unprecedented and out of control phenomena — 400 executions connected with narcotics trafficking in various parts of the country. And messages are being left on the bodies, some telling why the person was killed and who did the killing.
Apparently what has brought on these killings, for the most part, are reactions to the government’s war against drugs and drug traffickers, and strategic changes in the use of the military and federal police in different states. In addition, they are due to decisions that have been made to extradite some druglords and cartel chieftains, who have been incarcerated in Mexico, to the United States.
As well, there have been some recent and spectacular seizures of narcotics and large amounts of drug money.
Yet while the previous conclusions may be applicable, what can also be discerned from messages left on those executed is that the federal government is not the direct target. Up to now at least, for the most part those killed have been casualties of turf wars between drug cartels.
Reportedly what happened 15 years ago in Colombia is now happening in Mexico — the drug war is costing many lives and a great deal of money, which is certainly true. But too, Mexico is paying a high price with its negative image, for the country is now seen as violent and without governance.
And these factors hurt everything and everyone, especially with respect to two of the nation’s most important economic needs — inflows of foreign investment and international tourism.
Some specialists think that all the Mexican government has done is to stir up a hornet’s nest. They suggest that the government’s actions have caused the numerous and costly violent reactions, and that the government has not really accomplished anything. They say that the struggle, while costing more and more, is futile — which is hard to dispute, as no real gains seem to have been made so far.
The fight however continues to be a media show, since the first strikes by the government to the bloody responses. Actually the struggle appears to be more for the spectator than to gain on the battlefield, however the political cost could turn out to be extremely high if the government cannot show positive results in the near future.
In this context, fear among the people cannot go unnoticed. Yet nor can the possibility for agreements to be reached in order to reform certain aspects of Mexican laws on the procurement and administration of justice, maybe even restricting constitutional guarantees in a generalized manner in what some are calling a “Mexico Patriot Act.”
Since Calderón took office, on December 1, 2006, his gains have been political in nature. His government has shown that it has the needed political talent to gain congressional agreements, which are allowing some legal reform proposals to move forward.
If an agreement can be reached with Congress, to hold an extraordinary session during the May 1 to August 30 recess period in order to negotiate a number of fiscal reforms, those bills could be enacted before summer is over. However, if an accord is not reached, to hold a special legislative session, while the subject of fiscal reform this year will still be a top priority passage will be difficult, considering conflicts in time and schedules with things like Calderón’s first State of the Nation Address, etc. And this latter scenario would be unfavorable to the president.
Moreover, debates such as the one now taking place in the Federal District about abortion will bring about confrontations between Mexico’s three main political parties: the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI); National Action Party (PAN); and Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Too there could be splits, since in the Federal District the PRD and PRI are working together in this discussion, whereas at the national level, among members of Congress, the possibility exists for a PRI and PAN accord.
There could also be a breakdown in relations between the PRI and the PAN insofar as their candidates are the main contenders in two important gubernatorial elections that are coming up: May 20 in Yucatán, and on August 5 in Baja California.
All of which means that if agreements cannot be reached by early summer the political climate just could start to darken.
Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via email at enriqueag@andradep.com. |
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