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 Editorials | Issues | August 2007 
Mexico Security Memo: Aug. 13, 2007
 Strategic Forecasting
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Rising Death Toll in Sinaloa
Violence erupted in Sinaloa state this week, where cartel killings brought the death toll during the first nine days of August to at least 21. Reports on Aug. 6 of five bodies being discovered, each bound at the hands and feet, shot once in the head and completely burned, were followed later in the day by three shooting deaths in the cities of Culiacan and Navolato. A man in the town of Guasave also was found shot to death Aug. 9. He had reportedly been abducted by a group of armed men Aug. 8, just two days after he had been released from prison. There are a number of possible explanations for the high number of killings in Sinaloa. One is that the state has seen relatively few of the more than 20,000 federal troops and police officers who are deployed throughout the country to deal with the cartel violence. (So far, the federal focus has been on the Gulf cartel rather than on the Sinaloa cartel). Troop levels could increase in response to a sustained wave of rising violence.
U.S. Aid Package
The United States is apparently close to finalizing a major aid package to assist Mexico in its campaign against drug cartels. The deal is likely to include radar equipment, telephone surveillance technology, aircraft and training. The United States has already begun working with Mexico on the countries' shared drug problem, most recently becoming involved in training Mexican polygraphers who are trying to "clean up" the country's federal police forces. The proposed aid package represents a substantial increase in the U.S. commitment, and one that Mexico will be happy to have.
The only aid provision Mexico might be leery of is one that would allow for the presence of U.S. military personnel in Mexico, similar to "Plan Colombia," in which U.S. advisers and special operations troops were heavily involved in anti-cartel operations. Unlike Colombia's right-wing government, however, Mexico's more liberal government would be reluctant to accept the presence of U.S. troops. Another problem is the reliability of aid recipients. If the money goes primarily to the federal police forces - such as the Federal Preventive Police or the Federal Investigative Agency - it will be wasted on corrupt and infiltrated organizations. It will also be wasted if it is intended primarily for the Mexican military, which, unlike the Colombian armed forces, is not the most powerful security institution in the country. (That distinction belongs to the federal police forces.)
A severely deteriorated security situation could, of course, change this dynamic. Both Mexico and the United States would likely lose their reluctance to deploy U.S. troops if there is a significant shift in the security situation to a point that the violence spills over even more into the United States, or if the cartels begin assassinating higher-ranking public officials or causing more civilian casualties in Mexico.
Aug. 6
The media reported that five bodies were found together near Culiacan, in Sinaloa state. Each was bound at the hands and feet and completely burned.
Police in Guerrero state reported the discovery of a man's body with a gunshot wound to the head along a highway near Ajuchitlan.
Authorities in Sinaloa state reported finding the body of a woman shot six times near Culiacan, in the same city where another man was later shot dead in a separate incident.
Police in Mexico state raided a prison in Nezahualcoyotl and seized contraband items, including drugs and weapons.
A man died after being shot three times near Navolato, Sinaloa state.
Aug. 7
The assassination of a police inspector in Coatepec, Veracruz state, resulted in a high-speed chase and the killing of another police officer. Police used helicopters and installed checkpoints on the highway between Coatepec and the nearby city of Jalapa to search for the gunmen, who had escaped during the chase.
A group of gunmen in Villahermosa, Tabasco state, opened fire on police officers who had been surveilling them. The gunmen escaped following the firefight.
A woman was found dead from asphyxiation and wrapped in a plastic bag in Acapulco. She was later identified by police and family members, who said she was kidnapped July 27, and that the family paid a ransom of $1 million pesos.
Aug. 8
A firefight between criminals in Mexicali, Baja California state, left one gunman wounded and four in police custody. Mexicali is located along the U.S. border.
Authorities in Tijuana, Baja California state, detained five people involved in a kidnapping ring run by a prisoner in a maximum-security prison in Mexico state.
Aug. 9
A man in Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero state, died after being shot 15 times by a group of gunmen.
Police in Guasave, Sinaloa state, discovered the body of a man who had been shot to death. He had been released from prison several days before.
A U.S. Border Patrol agent shot and killed a suspected human trafficker as he was helping would-be immigrants cross the border into the United States near El Paso, Texas.
An unidentified man in Tijuana, Baja California state, died after being thrown from a vehicle and shot three times at close range.
Aug. 10
Rescue workers from Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, recovered the body of a man found floating in the Rio Grande. Initial media reports indicated the man was a resident of El Paso, and possibly a U.S. citizen and military veteran. The cause of death was unclear.
Authorities in Piedras Negras, Coahuila state, discovered the body of a man in the trunk of an abandoned car. He had been shot several times.
Aug. 11
A midday gunbattle between drug traffickers in the normally quiet colonial city of Morelia, Michoacan state, left two dead and one wounded.
Aug. 12
A group of armed men killed three people in a bar in Uruapan, Michoacan state. Witnesses said the gunmen were selective about who they chose to kill. |
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