 |
|
|
 Editorials | Issues | December 2007 
Mexico: A Guerrilla Group's Latest Threat
 Strategic Forecasting
go to original
The Mexican guerrilla group Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) issued a communique Dec. 3 saying it is resuming its campaign of violence in the country. The group charges that the Mexican government has failed to respond to its demands and that large corporations operating in the country have not pressured Mexico City to do so. It specifically threatens both the government and large businesses, saying they should suffer the consequences of their inaction. Although it is unclear whether the EPR had specified earlier that it was suspending attacks, this latest message suggests it held off staging attacks in November in order to give the government time to respond to its demands, including returning two EPR members who allegedly went missing in May.
Since May, the group has staged several bomb attacks in various parts of the country, targeting energy infrastructure, commercial interests and government installations in central and southern Mexico. The fact that the EPR has had several months to plan since its last attack in September, combined with the lack of significant leads in the Mexican government's investigation into the bombings, indicates that this latest threat is should be taken seriously.
Since beginning its so-called "harassment campaign" over the summer, the EPR has proven to be highly effective at operating covertly in a variety of locations. Attacks this year have included small improvised explosive devices planted outside a department store and a bank in Oaxaca state, and an incident at a federal prison in Chiapas state, during which two security guards were locked up.
The most spectacular attacks, though, were the coordinated bombings of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) oil pipelines in Queretaro and Guanajuato states in July, and in Veracruz and Tlaxcala states in September. These attacks revealed the vulnerability of the country's energy infrastructure, and also got the attention of both the Mexican government and foreign companies operating in the country. Although no casualties resulted from the bombings - an apparent EPR tenet - the pipeline attacks disrupted the operations of many businesses, including some U.S. companies, for several days, causing millions of dollars in losses.
The recent pipeline attacks - which took place July 10 and Sept. 10 - suggested a pattern of major attacks every other month, with another possibly planned for Nov. 10. However, EPR did not strike on that day. The newest EPR message said the group refrained from staging a large-scale attack Nov. 10 in order to demonstrate its patience in allowing the government more time to respond to the demands; this could mean that the EPR is planning its next attack for Dec. 10. Given its success with past Pemex bombings and the fact that it is impossible for security forces to protect the entire network of pipelines, the Mexican government probably will be unable to thwart an attack that has likely been thoroughly planned.
Along with the warning of new attacks, the Dec. 3 communique also says it is the last message from the group's political wing, the Popular Revolutionary Democratic Party (PDPR) - suggesting that some internal restructuring is taking place. The PDPR has been active in the EPR's militant operations in the past and joint messages from the EPR-PDPR claimed all attacks by the group in 2007. But internal changes could have other consequences. Shifts in the chain of command could result in the group scaling up its attacks, expanding its target set or even abandoning its implicit commitment to avoid casualties.
Regardless of whether an attack occurs on Dec. 10, this latest communique should be taken as a serious threat from a capable militant group that has demonstrated effectiveness in recent operations. U.S. businesses with interests in Mexico, especially in the states where the EPR has an operational history, would be well served to step up their security efforts and review their contingency plans. |
| |
|
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us