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 Editorials | Issues | February 2008 
Age and Identity Politics Likely to Influence Choice of Running Mate
 BYLINE
| | Most pundits believe New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is the likely choice for either Ms. Clinton or Mr. Obama. | | |
Comedian Dave Chappelle once joked that if elected the first black president of the United States, he would choose a Mexican as his vice-president, "just for a little insurance." Chris Rock has said Arizona Senator John McCain is so old he'll need to name a nurse as his VP.
Both of these jokes have emerged as strangely prescient given the speculation currently surrounding potential vice-presidential candidates.
Creating a "balanced ticket" will be increasingly difficult this year, and will likely centre on issues of age and identity politics. Mr. McCain must choose between winning over the base of the Republican Party or ignoring it to usher in a new guard. And his Democratic competition, either Senator Barack Obama or Senator Hillary Clinton, must consider how to best counter their own perceived shortcomings in an election campaign likely to attack their ability to lead.
"It will be extremely interesting to see who both sides eventually select," said Don Abelson, co-director of the Centre for American Studies at the University of Western Ontario. "There's really no way to predict which way they're going to go."
Many pundits believe Mr. McCain will pick a relatively unknown running mate such as Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, South Dakota Senator John Thune, Senator Tom Coburn from Oklahoma or newly elected Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.
And his decision will likely be influenced not only by his ideology - he's considered a moderate within his party - but also his age.
At 71, many have advised him to select a much younger running mate to counter the visual of two old men going up against the first black or female presidential candidate. Voters may also worry about the possibility of Mr. McCain keeling over in the Oval Office.
"McCain is smart enough to figure out that, yes, that is going to be a concern for some people," Prof. Abelson said. "You want someone who is going to be competent but who is basically going to follow your lead and not steal much of your airtime."
This dynamic has led people to put forward the names of 47-year-old South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford and Mr. Pawlenty, Mr. McCain's current campaign co-chairman, also 47.
Choosing a running mate from a major swing state is also an attractive option for presidential candidates looking for strategic advantage, meaning that Mr. McCain could turn to Florida Governor Charlie Crist or former Ohio congressman John Kasich.
But Mr. McCain will also be running against a historic Democratic nominee, leading some to suggest that the Arizona senator should select a woman such as Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison or Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Few who ran for the Republican nomination are considered likely contenders. Mr. McCain is no fan of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and although Mike Huckabee remains in the race, most believe he will be chosen only if Republican voters indicate they will stay home from the polls without a conservative Christian on the ticket.
But other past presidential candidates remain in contention. Some believe Mr. McCain will choose his friend Joseph Lieberman, the Independent senator from Connecticut.
On the Democratic side, choosing a vice-president could prove markedly easier than establishing the headline act. Most pundits believe New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is the likely choice for either Ms. Clinton or Mr. Obama. Selecting a governor will avoid additional attention to Senate voting records. Senators Jim Webb of Virginia and Joseph Biden of Delaware have also been name-checked as potential candidates for Mr. Obama, who could be looking for someone with experience and centrist credentials.
As for the other Dream Team, Prof. Abelson believes Ms. Clinton could tap Mr. Obama as a running mate, but that the reverse scenario is unlikely. "I can't imagine Hillary accepting the vice-presidential part of the ticket," he said. "I think there's too much ego involved, not to say that Obama doesn't have an ego, but for her it's all or nothing."
Contenders for the second slot
Possible running mates in the U.S. race to the White House:
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico
Pros: A former ambassador to the UN, he could bring foreign-policy experience.
Cons: Some pundits say two visible minorities on one ticket would be too much to ask of the electorate. (Mr. Richardson is Latino.)
Barack Obama
or Hillary Clinton
Pros: Each candidate would retain the other's support base.
Cons: While the electorate seems willing to elect a woman or a black man, voters could balk at the prospect of both in office.
Joseph Biden
Delaware senator
Pros: Chair of the Senate foreign relations committee, Mr. Biden is widely respected within the party for his position on the Iraq war.
Cons: Tends to say outrageous things, such as commenting that Mr. Obama is "clean."
REPUBLICAN PARTY
Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor
Pros: Charming on the campaign trail, the man has electoral traction in certain states.
Cons: A pro-life Christian who believes in creationism, he would not endear the party to moderate voters.
Joseph Lieberman
Independent senator, Connecticut
Pros: A former Democrat, he could help appeal to moderates and independents.
Cons: A former Democrat, he could give the GOP base a massive coronary.
Tim Pawlenty
Governor of Minnesota
Pros: Young and popular within his state and the GOP, offers conservative credentials on tax cutting and immigration.
Cons: Tim who? |
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