| | |  Editorials | Opinions | January 2009 
Is Mexico Really Collapsing?
 Tad Trueblood - The Spectrum
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 |  | Will U.S. aid in the $1.4 billion Merida Initiative make any difference? What else can or should the United States do? I don't know the answers yet, but I'm looking. |  | | |
If you've read this column for a while, you've recognized there's a contrarian streak in me. That usually shows up in my choice of topics, as I often avoid the "big story" plastered in headlines and on CNN in favor of something not being covered well. When I do address a topic that's reached the mainstream, I look for aspects not being addressed.
The first column I wrote regarding Mexico was almost three years ago, in February 2006. It concerned a confrontation near El Paso pitting Texas state troopers and sheriff's deputies against a group of heavily armed men in military uniforms coming across from Mexico. My thoughts then were, "When a country cannot or will not keep foreign armed forces from crossing into its territory, it may not be a country for much longer."
Since then, I've written frequently about what I call the narco-insurgency boiling over to our south. The situation in Mexico now transcends the domestic policy arguments over immigration. It's clearly a national security issue. The Obama administration, although they'd like to focus on economic and social issues, will be forced to deal with the fire on our doorstep.
Only recently have establishment media turned their attention to Mexico, with more feature stories and airtime about the ongoing carnage - more than 5,300 drug-related killings in 2008, double the 2007 toll. But most come late to the issue and fixate on shootings, beheadings and other gruesome details. Finding lucid explanations of what is going on behind the scenes is difficult.
This is partly because "if it bleeds, it leads" but also because there's now a pack mentality pushing the line that Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Two pieces of dark analysis have gotten alarmist ink recently. Retired Gen. Barry McCaffery states "Mexico is on the edge of the abyss - it could become a narco-state in the coming decade." Likewise, a forecasting study by Joint Forces Command says Mexico and Pakistan run the risk of "rapid and sudden collapse."
And here's where my contrarian streak kicks in. Yes, I've been warning about chaos down south and the havoc the narco-insurgency can unleash for Americans - see www.thiscouldget interesting.com. But shoot-outs and cartel wars are essentially old news to me. I'm looking for deeper trends, trying to piece together underlying dynamics and challenging prevailing storylines. So here are some questions I'm now asking:
How widespread is the narco-war? Is Mexico really becoming a "hollowed out" state? Or are border towns like Tijuana, Juarez and Nuevo Loredo hyper-violent exceptions?
How much success has the government had? Have 40,000 deployed Mexican troops had an effect? Have government anti-corruption efforts helped?
Mexican authorities claim rising violence is actually a sign of desperation from the cartels. Is there truth in this?
Could it be that a corner has been turned, and we just can't see it yet?
Will U.S. aid in the $1.4 billion Merida Initiative make any difference? What else can or should the United States do?
I don't know the answers yet, but I'm looking.
Tad Trueblood has more than 20 years experience in the U.S. Air Force and the national security community. He blogs at ThisCouldGetInteresting.com. |
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