| | |  Editorials | Opinions | March 2009 
War is Breaking Out in Mexico - Will it Unravel the United States We Know?
 Tony Dolz - Dolz.com
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 |  | Today, we need a nation of Minutemen, citizens who are not only prepared to take arms, but citizens who regard the preservation of freedom as the basic purpose of their daily life.
- John F. Kennedy |  | | |
The Perfect Storm is brewing. Millions of refugees escaping war, hunger and violence in Mexico may storm our Southern Border during the Obama first term. The Winds of Change threaten to align an Economic Depression of historical dimensions, massive unemployment and civil disorder against a sea of pressing refugees.
Fresh from his rushed meeting with Mexican military leaders on Friday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, met with President Barack Obama today on a week-end briefing on the probabilities of a Mexican government collapse and United States military options.
The medias coverage of Admiral Mullens comings and goings for the president has so far ignored the elephant in the room - the reaction of the American people to a surge of millions of Mexican refugees violating our border and its aftermath.
Will the day come when U.S. military be ordered to fire on American citizens?
Millions of Mexican "refugees" may overrun the southern border if not in 2009, then at some point within the first Obama term, U.S. intelligence sources speculate. The question is not what will the federal government do to defend our Southern border, but how will the government react when the citizenry refuses to tolerate failure in fencing out a surge of millions of refugees, especially as we are headed into a depression of historical dimensions.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with key members of the House Select Committee on Intelligence last Thursday immediately following her first overseas trip since her nomination was approved. Clintons opening remark was that the greatest threat to our internal security was the Mexican border and the possible collapse of the Mexican government.
The Secretary of States candid remarks may come as a surprise to the public but none of the Congressmen from the House Committee on Intelligence flinched as top level federal official have known for some time that America is in grave danger.
Various reports document the reasons why millions of Mexicans will flee Mexico if conditions continue to worsen
The most recent US Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) report, "Joint Operating Environment 2008: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force," warns that "Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state under control of narco-terrorists." "In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico."
On a weeks old report entitled "Narco-Violence in Mexico: A growing Threat to U.S. Security", the author, former US Drug Czar under President Clinton and adjunct professor of international affairs at West Point, General Barry R. McCaffrey states that:
The Mexican State is engaged in an increasingly violent, internal struggle against heavily armed narco-criminal cartels that have intimidated the public, corrupted much of law enforcement, and created an environment of impunity to the law.
Thousands are being murdered each year. Drug production, addiction, and smuggling are rampant. The struggle for power among drug cartels has resulted in chaos in the Mexican states and cities along the U.S.-Mexico border. Drug-related assassinations and kidnappings are now common-place occurrences throughout the country.
Squad-sized units of the police and Army have been tortured, murdered, and their decapitated bodies publicly left on display. The malignancy of drug criminality now contaminates not only the 2000 miles of cross-border U.S. communities but stretches throughout the United States in more than 295 U.S. cities.
Mexico΄s senior leadership President Felipe Calderon, Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora, and SSP Secretary of Federal Police leader Genaro Luna are confronting criminal drug cartels that have subverted state and municipal authorities and present a mortal threat to the rule of law across Mexico.
A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and violence could result in a surge of millions of refugees crossing the U.S. border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed economic policy, poverty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless cruelty and injustice of a criminal state.
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs states that: "Due to pervasive corruption at the highest levels of the Mexican Government, and the almost effortless infiltration of the porous security forces by the cartel, an ultimate victory by the state is uncertain."
Mexico΄s government and institutions are presently corrupt from top to bottom and no legislative, administrative, military or law enforcement body has been left untouched. This is not Mexico΄s only problem however.
Mexico faces a failing economy:
Mexico is plagued by 25% unemployment and worsening
82% of Mexicos exports are destined for the United States, but business is drying up
Over 50% of foreign investments in Mexico come from the United States, but credit is frozen today.
Mexican car manufacturing dropped 51% in January. Car sales to the United States dropped by 70% and to Europe by 71%
GDP dropped by 1.8% last quarter of 2008 and the slide is expected to continue
Oil exports account for 1/3 of the Mexican national budget but oil world market prices are falling
Mexico's industrial production contracted by 6 percent year-on-year in December and ...
The manufacture of transport equipment fell by 9 percent
Mining output dropped by 6 percent
Construction output dropped by 4.4 percent
Besides being buffeted by bad economic news, Mexico is riddled with crime and violence. Due to pervasive corruption and complicity, the population is fearful of asking for help from elected representatives, the judicial system and law enforcement. For that reason crime figures are likely underestimates. The known statistics are sobering:
Drug use in Mexico has doubled since 2002. Cocaine consumption has doubled since 2002
Five percent of the Mexican population consumes illegal drugs daily
Mexico is the source of 90% of marijuana, methamphetamine and cocaine entering the U.S.
Civilian deaths in the drug war stand at 7000 rivaling 9000 in Iraq in the same 12 month period
Armed Mexican kidnappers are snatching victims in Phoenix for ransom, turning the sun-baked city into the "kidnap capital" of the United States
"The fight in Mexico is about control of the smuggling corridors and those corridors don't stop at the border," Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard said last week
Phoenix police reported and average of one adduction per day in 2008 adding to the escalation of execution style murders, violent home invasions, and a spiraling kidnap rate
The cities of Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Reynosa and Monterrey are virtually under drug cartel control and many other cities are tittering.
President Calderon has deployed 45,000 Mexican army troops to the border to take back control of key cities but the loyalty of those troops is compromised by bribes from the cartels which do $140 billion in trade along the border.
The civilian death toll along the border in the month of January 2009 was over 1000. Ciudad Juarez across the river from El Paso suffered 1,800 murders in 2008. Murders continue to climb monthly. There were 255 murders in Ciudad Juarez in January. Juarezs Mayor fled to El Paso and asked for political asylum this week after several of his police officers were murders and his life was threatened. Ciudad Juarez has for all purposes fallen to the cartels.
The Washington Post quoted Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.) on Tuesday as saying, "It is a state of war" regarding the cartels increasing control of the border and a number of cities in Mexico. McCaul noted that on Tuesday Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) called for 1,000 additional federal troops and requested millions of dollars be sent to the state out of concern that security along the border was inadequate. Governor Perry briefly put the National Guard on a state of alert during the recent blocking of the international bridges instigated by cartel operatives. Perrys reasons for concern has been confirmed by statements from former Governor Napolitano and now head of Homeland Security, who puts the risks from the cartels spilling into the United States as a serious and growing threat.
Texas Homeland Security director Steve McCraw told legislative committees in recent days that state officials are closely monitoring the increasing violence in Mexican border areas, and have contingency plans to address any spillover of the cartel violence into Texas.
Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano as recently as yesterday restated her assessment that drug-related corruption and violence against government leaders and the military have limited the Mexican government's authority.
According to an exclusive report by Sara Carter in the Washington Time today, a senior United States defense official told the Times that the chaos in Mexico is moving to crisis proportions. The official who spoke on the condition that he not be named, said that the cartels have amassed a 100,000 foot soldier army that is on a par with Mexicos army of 130,000.
The collapse of civil order in Mexico will give rise to a run of our southern border by millions of Mexican citizens seeking "refugee" status. Estimates leaking out of Congress point to a feared magnitude of 30 to 40 million refugees!
That tens of millions of refugees would head for the border should not come as much of a surprise. A Pew Hispanic Center Study back in 2005, when the situation was not as bleak, reported that 32 million Mexicans would leave for the United States and most of them said they would do so illegally if necessary. The crime and economic conditions today are much worse than in 2005 so the number of refugee would be much higher.
There are signs that the federal government knows more than they pretend. Are we to believe reports that there are plans to deal with the collapse of the Mexican government, for example:
Thousands of Mexican cartel armed terrorists spilling into the United States
Tens of millions of refugees escaping chaos in Mexico and rushing our borders
Tens of millions of legal and illegal people of Mexican descent living in the United States politicizing the refugee issue and resorting to civil disobedience and violence
Foreign terrorists infiltrating the mass of Mexican aliens rushing the Southern border
Thousands of United States citizens weighing in for the defense of the nations borders and sovereignty should the government fail to do so
The United States economy collapses under the weight of mismanagement, insurmountable debt and a worthless currency simultaneously with the rush of the border by millions of Mexicans
Signs and rumors of federal government establishing domestic detention and civil disorder control plans:
Confirmed Federal government domestic deployment of 20,000 uniformed military force in contradiction of the 131 year standing Posse Comitatus Act which restricts use of the military on domestic soil
Reports of large scale construction of FEMA and other facilities for detaining large populations
Reports of the construction of people hauling railroad cars
Sudden speed-up of border fence construction after many years of stalling
Legislation infringing on 2nd Amendment Right to hold and bear arms
Federal government training and exercises on disarming the citizenry
For Army rules on establishing and running civilian detention labor camps go to this government website: http://www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf
There are 12 million armed American citizens, many of them veterans or retired law enforcement who recognize that a surge of hundreds of thousands or millions of aliens cannot be stopped by the National Guard and local law enforcement alone. American citizens are arming themselves and training for the defense of their country.
What will the citizens do if?
The government is overwhelmed and rendered impotent by a surge of millions of aliens fleeing war, crime and violence in Mexico?
The government strategically opts to allow hundreds of thousands or millions of aliens to overrun the United States rather than take actions that may cause Mexican ethnocentric groups entrenched in the United States to spark a civil war?
Hundreds of thousands or millions of aliens trespassing from Mexico clash with citizens offering resistance?
Millions of citizens, legal residents and illegal aliens of Mexican descent and others sympathetic to Mexican ethnocentric interests, resort to civil disobedience to free Mexican aliens from government detention centers?
The disruption and chaos of a surge of aliens overrunning the Southern Borders leads to a breakdown of local law enforcement and leads to an explosion of crime and violence in the United States?
There are signs that citizens are taking notice of the threats to the nation
Gun and ammunition sales are at record high levels especially since President Barack Obamas election
Many states have introduced legislation to curtail the power of the federal government and re-asserting 9th and 10th Amendment state rights
Citizens are joining neighborhood and border watch law abiding groups in record numbers. The Minuteman Civil Defense Corp maintains a permanent camp, Camp Vigilance, at the California Mexican border, for example.
Groups such as the American Legion have passed a resolution and put their 2.3 million members on notice about the risks from our Southern Border.
Groups such as NumbersUSA, with a million members, lobby Congress to enforce existing border security and immigration laws. Each time Congress proposes an Amnesty for illegal aliens thousands more join NumbersUSA.
Citizens are increasingly relying on non-government regulated independent news media, such as Internet sources, for news and information
Citizen activism and open challenges to government policy are on the upswing which is illustrated by a meager 11% support of Congress and sinking levels of support for elected officials and judges at both the federal and state levels.
There may still be time to prepare for the fall of the Mexican government and fencing out the destabilizing effect of millions of aliens rushing our southern border.
The most prudent course for the government would be to enlist the help of the citizenry rather than suppress civilian participation. To re-build the faltering trust in our government we need full and complete transparency from our elected representatives.
The states need to start preparing for their own defense especially Border States since relaying on the federal government to protect the border has proven unreliable and ineffective for the last decades.
A report released by the Center on Immigration Studies two weeks ago, documents that over the last 6 years our elected representative have received $334 million from special interest that benefit or profit from open borders and cheap foreign labor legal and illegal. We must keep vigilant of the continuing buying of influence by special interest that undermines national security and domestic tranquility.
Many now consider Congress integrity as being compromised and this weakens Congress leadership initiatives and puts the nation at risk.
What could civilians do to help maintain order and the Rule of Law?
Organize into neighborhood and border watch groups, hundreds of thousands have done so already
Train in observation and communication skills to help state and federal defense operations
Train in rescue operations and the protection and maintenance of infrastructure
Civilians should rely on lawful 2nd Amendment possession and training on firearms for self-defense and national defense
Chose the sources of information carefully, stay informed and remain ready and prepared to defend the country, the community and the family
Lets hope that the Mexican people rise in support of what remains of lawful and ethical government in Mexico so we can be spared the spillover of their problems into the United States.
We need more than hope from the president, however. The Associated Press reported today that 700 unemployed Americans applied for a single janitors position at Edison Junior High School in Ohio, a job that pays $15 per hour. In February we saw the loss of another 655,000 jobs.
Mr. President, dont even think about opening our borders to millions of refugees and least of all of offering Amnesty (forgiveness of crimes) for the millions of illegal aliens that are today competing with Americans for basic $15 per hour jobs.
What is the single most effective measure the federal government could take to avoid bloodshed in the Unites States should the Mexican government fall?
Start a massive construction project of a secure double fence with back up ground and air electronic surveillance of the Southern Border from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean.
Station returning military from Afghanistan and Iraq in military bases along the border.
It is better to building a border fence now than after Martial Law has to be declared. If refugee camps are needed lets establish them on the Mexican side of the border and lets protect them in collaboration with whatever reliable Mexican military personnel and international partners as may be mustered.
A Perfect Storm is brewing. It is time for the Government to hold public hearings on how it plans to prevent millions of refugees to storm our Southern Border and in the event that it fails to secure the border, how it will prepare to deal with possible consequences, such as,breakdown of civil order, state and federal bankruptcies and massive scale unemployment, hunger and bloodshed.
Tony Dolz is an independent author and a National Security Analyst. He holds an MBA on International Business. Tony is a foreign-born Hispanic immigrant and a naturalized citizen. A selection of his writings can be read at www.Dolz.com - Email: mexicowar(at)dolz.info |
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