| | |  Editorials | Opinions | May 2009 
Cough and Splutter
 Ronald Buchanan - The News
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 |  | Why only Mexicans? The swine flu virus has now spread to several countries, but only Mexicans have died from it. Why should that be? |  | | |
Seven deaths. Just as even more draconian measures were taken to curb the spread of swine flu in Mexico City this week, the authorities confirmed what the World Health Organization had been saying for 24 hours. The death toll from the epidemic, as confirmed by laboratory analysis, came to just seven.
And Mexico was the only country where anyone had died, though later the death of a 2-year-old boy in Texas was also confirmed as being due to swine flu. He too was Mexican.
In fact, by Wednesday, more cases of swine flu had been confirmed in the United States than in Mexico, though the world's media unanimously described Mexico as the "epicenter" of the crisis.
The figure of seven deaths should be put into context. They appear to have happened over a period of about three or four weeks.
Every day on average more than 1,300 people die in Mexico, about 50 of them from road accidents and 160 from diabetes, now the nation's leading cause of death. Seven over a period of weeks is, therefore, a very low figure indeed.
So the measures taken to combat swine flu, including the closure of all restaurants, were frankly amazing. So, too, was the public reaction, in the form of panic-buying of basic foodstuffs. And the foreign embassies, airlines and travel companies that cancelled trips to Mexico and urged travelers to go home.
Of course, diabetes is not contagious and there are bad drivers in every country. Yet there was a lingering suspicion that the Mexican authorities were not telling us the full truth about what was going on.
Most Mexicans, indeed, assume that their authorities never tell the full truth about anything - and not without reason.
So, as the measures were announced, the rumors built up in intensity. "People are dying like flies ... They're admitted to hospital and dead in a matter of hours ... It's all being hushed up."
These, and a whole lot more, were based on the traditional sources of urban legends: "My brother's girlfriend's sister. She's a nurse" ... "A guy in my dad's office whose wife is in the secretariat."
On the other hand, it was heartening to see that at least all the major politicians seemed for once to be singing from the same song sheet.
The crisis brought a rare show of unity between President Calderón and two politicians regarded as front runners to succeed him: Marcelo Ebrard, the PRD mayor of Mexico City, and Enrique Peña Nieto, the PRI governor of the State of Mexico.
Nobody was taking cheap shots. Everyone seemed to be pulling together. It surely won't last.
Why only us?
Why only Mexicans? The swine flu virus has now spread to several countries, but only Mexicans have died from it. Why should that be?
President Calderón has said that the ailment can be cured by attacking it swiftly with the right medicine. And that seems to be working in the overwhelming majority of cases.
The problem is, though, that Mexicans aren't used to going to the doctor at the first sign of illness.
Politicians are fond of telling us that the government's health system has world-class staff and equipment. (They say that, of course, before taking the next plane to Houston to have their prostate examined.)
But the reality is that the public health system involves huge waits and medicine shortages. Most people opt instead for self-medication. Drugs that supposedly require a prescription are regularly available without one in most pharmacies.
An alternative is to rely on one of the many cheap, private clinics of dubious quality - and staffed by people with even more dubious qualifications - to be found in every poor area.
Many people never see a proper doctor until they are really badly ill. And that seems to be what has happened in the case of the swine flu deaths.
Economic ailments
The economic impact of the swine flu looks like it'll be particularly severe. Tourism is sure to be very badly hit, and it was set to be one of the few bright spots this year.
It's clear from the most recent economic statistics that attempts to kick-start the economy by government spending on public works have yet to bear fruit.
There has been no progress report on the projects that were announced with much pomp. But it's pretty clear from the figures which way things are going.
Construction is down by about 11 percent year-on-year just at the time when the official message was that it would be driving growth throughout the nation.
Let's just hope that the government abandons defense of the peso exchange rate as a cornerstone of its policy. The international agencies that have provided billions of dollars in standby credit will refuse to lend if spending puts the government into deficit.
So if the peso falls, the government can let it go, spend on public works, and let the market set the currency's true value.
Or it can dip into the standby money and say goodbye to public works.
The market offers the only sensible solution. A strong peso does not necessarily mean a strong economy, yet it's become a fetish of successive presidents here.
Fetishes can make for great art. Ask Michelangelo or Luis Buñuel.
But they are apt to drop you in deep economic doo-doo. Ask JosAc López Portillo (or rather one of his former aides because the man himself is no longer with us) or Carlos Salinas. |
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