| | |  Editorials | Opinions | December 2009 
Education Decline and the Economy: The Future of the Car Industry
 Guillermo Ramón Adames y Suari - PVNN
December 08, 2009
 |  | There is a great deal of actual planning that has to be done before it is too late. |  | | |
Thank you very much to all readers for the various comments and questions on the article "Education Decline", published November 30. It is to say the least, surprising to note that we are not heading the right way. In the early 30's, Argentina had an educational budget which was the envy of many. They were not far off 7% of the PIB. At the time, Argentina was self sufficient and they had all sorts of projects regarding food and development. Argentina today has joined the low end of developing countries buried in its own internal politics and the educational budget is close to nil. Most Latin American countries face the very same situation. Africa's continuous thirst of some follows the very same path if not worse. Some Asian countries face the very same scenario. There is no longer a real technological leadership, and the countries that are making the effort will be soon noticed. Educational budgets are low, very low.
Even the educational policy in the US and Western Europe is on decline. What was the policy in the recent past? Technologically strong countries would receive the best students from all over the world for post-graduate studying. Bright foreign students would be admitted into prestigious US and European Universities. In the course of graduate work, the best were selected and invited either by the Universities or by the industry to stay in the host country. They were usually offered far better salaries than the ones offered at their home countries. This policy can explain why about 50% of Intel's technical staff is foreign. (Out of that 50% about 90% are Indian engineers).
Microsoft's "foreign" staff is about 30% altogether. This is the well known "brain drain" applied by developed countries. So, countries "bought" technicians and diminished their educational budget. But the US and Western Europe are facing their increase in population and governments are restricting the invitation of qualified foreign technicians and not teaching their own people. Even the US is facing a huge shortage of medical doctors and nurses. Yet the government does not invest enough in high tech. In 20 yrs, technology in these countries will be surpassed if nothing is done now. Right now.
My sarcastic example was very clear: If we take the population of Western Europe the US and Canada, we have roughly 1,000 million. If we take the population of India, China, Pakistan and Japan, we will be not far off 3,000 million. Just evaluate the percentage of intelligent people in each case. Out of share numbers, the Western world will have to import the technicians "they cannot produce or do not want to train them". The balance will fall on the obvious side. China has the study plans of the West, which have been transferred by various universities. India's mathematical and engineering technology is far superior to what many can imagine.
Let's take a look at the car industry.
India has developed a technology which consists of doing a lot out of nothing. The best known example: the "TATA" car. With their technology they managed to build up a car at a price that nobody can compete against. The Western world does not have that adaptability, flexibility and the "ingenuity" to invent a car with literally no budget. TATA costs less than half the price of any car. Surely, the big American, European and Japanese corporations will manage to ban TATA on many "grounds". But for how long? India has the car, they will improve it, beautify it and make a technological jewel out of it. Do you remember the 60's when the US imported the first Japanese cars? Do you remember those cars? What are Japanese cars today? In some aspects they are above US and European standards and are not far off competing in design with Italian cars. In technology with British, French, Italian and German cars. Take a guess why French car builders are associating themselves with Japanese companies. The next step will be India and China, and this will be before too long.
So what is the car industry's future? Our new competitors will be Peugeot-Citroen-Mitsubishi-Tata or Renault-Nissan-"China" or others. Do not forget that part of British Jaguar car industry was bought by India. And Hummer was bought by China. What about a brand "China-India-Japan-Pakistan"? The car industry is bound to finish in the West. Purely American or German or British or Italian cars will cost two to three times the price of the cars to be produced by new multinational alliances. Even now, American or European or Japanese cars produced in Latin America or Eastern Europe will be out of prize in less than 10 yrs time. On top of that, the car industry is building cars that can only be repaired in high-tech garages of each brand. So you bought a car and you are married to the brand until you change cars. And TATA's simplicity rules out this policy: 30 to 40 sensors are not necessary for a car to take you from A to B.
There is a great deal of actual planning that has to be done before it is too late. I have chosen the car industry as an example: It represents in the whereabouts of 35% of the economy of a country, depending on the country. There is a lot of car business going on out there but a crash in the car industry is inevitable. Nothing's been said on the other 65% of a country's economy. Do you think that 65% is "safe" with this kind of competition in the first 35%?
Guillermo Ramón Adames y Suari is a former electoral officer of the United Nations Organization. Contact him at gui.voting(at)gmail.com |
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