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Mexico's Violence Not as Widespread as Seems
 Chris Hawley - USA Today
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August 04, 2010
 |  | The statistics show that the most deadly violence is happening in northern Mexico close to the U.S. border where smuggling occurs. |  | | |
Mexico City — Gruesome murders appear to be commonplace in Mexico. The severed heads of eight men found in pairs along highways in Durango. Seventeen people massacred at a birthday party in Torreon. The bodies of 55 people found dumped in a mine near the town of Taxco.
Mexicans and their American neighbors are being bombarded by news of shootouts, bombings, kidnappings and executions as drug smugglers battle each other and the government for control of the narcotics trade.
But a closer look at the latest official statistics indicates that much of Mexico has modest murder rates. The horrific violence that is jacking up the national death toll is largely in nine of Mexico's 31 states.
Despite a wave of killings in these states, the murder rate in 2009 was still lower than it was a decade before, long before the Mexican government began a crackdown against the cartels.
"If you look at history, today we have fewer murders, both in raw numbers and rates," said Mario Arroyo, a researcher with the Citizens' Institute for Crime Studies, a Mexico City think tank.
The statistics show that the most deadly violence is happening in northern Mexico close to the U.S. border where smuggling occurs, and in the states where marijuana and heroin are produced. Also:
• The state with the lowest murder rate is Yucatán, the Gulf of Mexico state known for its beaches and Mayan ruins. Its murder rate of 2 per 100,000 was comparable to Wyoming and Montana.
• Washington, D.C.'s murder rate is nearly quadruple that of the Mexican capital, Mexico City. Washington's murder rate was 31.4 per 100,000 people in 2008; Mexico City's rate in 2009 was 8.
Footnotes to the numbers
Experts caution that murder statistics give only a narrow view of crime. Mexico's 2009 murder rate was still more than twice as high as the U.S. rate.
The statistics also do not take into account extortion, robbery or other offenses. Some anti-crime groups say Mexico City is No. 1 in the world in kidnappings for ransoms or cash that a victim is forced to withdraw from ATMs.
The Mexican government has not released a breakdown by city, only states, so it is difficult to know where in a sprawling state that the violence is occurring. Mexico's Public Safety Secretariat released the 2009 murder totals in July in response to a request by the Citizens' Institute for Crime Studies.
The statistics are the most recent released by the government. Some Mexican news media keep their own daily tallies, but they track only drug-related murders.
The numbers do not reflect the increasingly macabre nature of Mexico's drug killings as the cartels try to intimidate Mexicans. Bodies are routinely dismembered or hanged from bridges. Mass shootings have become common as hit-men hunt down rivals at parties or drug rehabilitation centers.
"There's a disconnect between the statistics and the perception of the public," said Elias Kuri, president of Light Up Mexico, an anti-crime association.
Nevertheless, the numbers do give some credence to President Felipe Calderón, who insists that the worst violence is confined to certain regions and is mostly among gang members. He has accused the news media of exaggerating the violence.
"We've got problematic cities, yes," Calderón said in a speech on crime. "But we also have areas and states, especially tourist areas, that have murder rates equal to many countries in Europe."
In past decades, most murders in Mexico were over personal disputes, Arroyo said. Hundreds of people also died in conflicts between ethnic groups, Catholic and Protestant villages, and rival ejidos, or communal farms.
But murders had been dropping steadily, from 16,163 in 1997 to 10,291 in 2007, even as Mexico's population grew. The murder rate sank from 17 to 10 per 100,000 people.
Part of the decline was tied to Mexico's stable economy, helped along by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, Arroyo said. A 1992 constitutional amendment that changed laws on communal land also helped, said Edna Jaime of Mexico Evaluates, another think tank in Mexico City. The laws eased ethnic frictions by settling disputes and giving out deeds to individual farmers.
"It was a very steady and pronounced decline," Jaime said. "It was part of becoming a more modern and civilized country."
Recent violence tied to crackdown
A rise in murder rates coincided with Calderón's crackdown, which has splintered the old drug cartels and led to a spate of infighting, according to the government.
Calderón said the offensive was needed because the cartels had infiltrated local governments and were threatening to become more powerful than police.
From 2007 to 2009, the murder rate jumped from 10 to 14 per 100,000 people. That's still low compared with countries such as Brazil, with a murder rate of 22, or Honduras, with 60.9.
"If you look at Mexico as a whole country, it's really not as bad as other places," said Jose Miguel Cruz, an expert on Latin American crime at Vanderbilt University.
The real question is whether Mexico can stop the recent upswing in violence, experts say.
In recent months, Mexican authorities have killed several drug lords, including Arturo Beltrán Leyva and Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel, and captured dozens of lower-level smugglers.
But the gangs have also gotten better at killing, carrying out sophisticated ambushes on police and experimenting with techniques such as car bombs.
"We're seeing brutal violence, and in some states it's almost more than society can bear," Jaime said. "Numbers are one thing ... but what we don't know is where this is all headed."
Hawley is Latin America correspondent for USA TODAY and The Arizona Republic |
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