Will a California Marijuana Law Slow Mexico's Drug War?
 Barnard R. Thompson - MexiData.info
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October 18, 2010
Among the lyrics added to the popular Spanish corrido "La Cucaracha," during the Mexican Revolution, was the verse:
La cucaracha, la cucaracha
ya no puede caminar
porque no tiene, porque le falta
mariguana que fumar
The cockroach, the cockroach
Cannot walk anymore
Because it doesn't have, because it lacks
Marijuana to smoke
Lyrics that were political statements and allusions of the early 1900s — which today, just maybe, could be stretched to fit California's Proposition 19, "The Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010," insofar as Mexico is concerned. This as the California law could help to pull the rug out from under the Felipe Calderón government's fight against illegal drugs and organized crime cartels, and in one way or another cause Mexico's anti-drug campaign to collapse and go up in smoke.
Putting the point in context, at a recent Institute of the Americas "Tequila Talk," in La Jolla, California, John D. Feeley spoke on "The US-Mexico Relationship in a Time of Crisis." Feeley, a Foreign Service Officer who is currently serving as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, mentioned California's Prop. 19 (among other things), calling it a "paradox."
This, Feeley noted, because if Prop. 19 passes, legalizing marijuana, pot may then be sold, bought and smoked in California cities like San Diego, while "just a couple of miles down the road [there are] battalion sized maneuvers to go after the guys who are providing it." And he added: "We are getting just pilloried by the Mexican political class, by the commentariat, by our government partners. 'How do you justify that?' And the truth is I don't have a good answer for it."
Among other allowances, Proposition 19 states: "Persons age 21 or older would be allowed to (1) possess, process, share, and transport up to one ounce of marijuana, and (2) cultivate marijuana on private property in an area up to 25 square feet per private residence or parcel." (See "Proposition 19," Legislative Analyst’s Office, Sept. 21, 2010)
Here it should also be noted that Mexico, on August 20, 2009, decriminalized the possession of small amounts of "personal and immediate use" drugs, including marijuana (5 grams, or 0.18 oz), cocaine, heroin, opium, LSD, crystal meth, ecstasy and MDA, nationally. (See Diario Oficial de la Federación, Aug. 20, 2009, Secretariat of Health Decree: Pg. 6 [88], Art. 479)
Yet in Tijuana on October 7, Mexican President Calderón told The Associated Press "that a California ballot measure to legalize marijuana represents hypocrisy in U.S. drug policy for encouraging consumption while at the same time demanding that Mexico and other countries crack down on drug trafficking. 'For me, it reflects a terrible inconsistency in government policies in the United States.'"
Calderón also told AP "he was certain that legalizing marijuana will lead to an increase in drug consumption."
During a visit to New York City last week, while speaking at different venues (according to a piece in the Mexico City daily Excélsior, Oct. 14, 2010), Mexican Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones (PRI) said that legalizing the use of marijuana in California would complicate Mexico's struggle against narcotics trafficking. Beltrones, who is currently the President of the Mexican Senate, added that legalization "would also open a debate in Mexico, which would have to resolve what we would do if, in the country where this is consumed, to date, the illegal drug is authorized."
Beltrones also said that the California vote, on November 2, "will be indicative of what the policy will be on illegal drug use matters, in particular marijuana, that the United States will follow in the future."
Beltrones, an ex-governor of the northern border state of Sonora and a presidential aspirant for 2012, said that the U.S. government, when considering decriminalization, should take into consideration "the considerable economic and budget resources" Mexico has spent in order to slowdown illegal drug trafficking. And he emphasized that the Mexican government's strategy "to fight organized crime to its logical conclusion is correct," adding that the objective must remain the same and the battle must go on regardless of which political party wins Mexico's 2012 presidential election.
Another concern in Mexico was summed up by Carlos Ramírez, on October 8, 2010 in his "Indicador Política" column, which runs weekdays in Mexico City's El Financiero. In a piece titled "Legal drugs [are] not democracy," that outlined prohibition era and alcohol related crime and violence in the United States — especially Chicago, Ramírez concluded with the following:
"The legalization of drugs in Mexico would be a mechanism of social control, of ideological demobilization, of popular marginalization, and of political repression. And, in Mexico, restrictions on consumption of alcohol and tobacco cannot be emphasized on one hand, and [with the other] facilitate drug use with legalization. The roots of violence in Mexico are the same as in Chicago: corruption; the dumbing down of the masses — above all, surprise, the young; and private armies that dispute the monopoly of power to the State as is the case with the factual powers that dominate the decision-making system. Legalization of drugs in Mexico would move the country away from democracy and well being."
In the song "La Cucaracha," a closing canto says: The cockroach just died…. However, in Mexico today things are different than a hundred years ago and the roaches are not dead, nor will they be stamped out soon.
Furthermore, today there is the so-called "cockroach effect," which means when local drug traffickers, gangsters and other thugs are targeted by the Mexican military and/or police they do not die away, they simply scatter to nearby areas and promptly take up where they left off.
And the California initiative, if enacted, could contribute to an expanded "cockroach effect," with cartels and felons becoming more involved in actions over and above the drug business (and it is a business). Criminal activities such as people and weapons smuggling, sex trafficking, extortion, kidnapping, murder for hire, or who knows what other nefarious acts — in league with U.S. partners and perpetrators who, surely, are already part of the cross-border organized crime and spillover activities.
Barnard Thompson, editor of MexiData.info, has spent 50 years in Mexico and Latin America, providing multinational clients with actionable intelligence; country and political risk reporting and analysis; and business, lobbying, and problem resolution services. |
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