| | |  News from Around Banderas Bay | May 2009 
Swine Flu Scare: Puerto Vallarta Hotel Fights Back
 PVNN
| | For more information please visit CasaCupula.com. For reservations from the US, please call 1-866-352-2511. | |
Don Pickens, the owner of Puerto Vallarta's most upscale gay resort, Casa Cupula, is fighting back against the CDC's Mexico travel advisory. Here's what he wrote recently to Daily Kos and posted on Gary Beck's Puerto Vallarta Yahoo gay travel group website:
The CDC "Warning" (which most interpret as a ban, and which acts as a ban for many big companies and government employers) is for travel to ALL OF MEXICO for 3 months. This is devastating, and there is absolutely no epidemiological basis for this as there have been no confirmed cases of swine flu in Puerto Vallarta, the state of Jalisco or neighboring states of Colima or Nayarit.
What basis does the CDC have to say it is reasonable to cancel a trip to Puerto Vallarta in July at this time? I am asking they make the warning for Mexico City and another areas where there are confirmed outbreaks, and only for one month. As we head out of flu season, chances are that in less than a month this will be a non-issue. And a warning can always be extended or widened if there is evidence to support that.
The reason there is so much fear is this is a new virus, not a virus with a high morbidity rate. No one knows how many cases there ever were in the Mexico City area, so no one knows what the morbidity rate is. As my article states, if you apply the AVERAGE flu death rate from the US to the population of Mexico City, you'd expect at least 300 flu deaths a month in Mexico City during flu season FOR AN AVERAGE YEAR.
While confirmed cases are in the single digits, even suspected cases over several months are only 150 or so, which is less than you'd expect as a normal rate. No one outside Mexico has died from this, except an infant in Texas who was from Mexico.
If you say "yes, but these were young healthy adults that died," how do you know that? Have we seen reports from their families on their health before the flu? Are there any proofs that there were no extenuating circumstances (bad health care, lack of going to doctor, co-infections, improper treatments, etc? If you live in Mexico this would not come as a surprise.)
Sure, it's prudent to take reasonable steps to stop the spread of a new virus. But as my article points out, in a normal year (stats not in yet completely for this season,) 36,000 die in the US from regular flu. Extrapolating, according to an article on CNN, easily thousands have died from regular flus in the US since January.
To quote the head of NYC's health department, swine flu is a "garden variety flu," if one were basing travel warnings on epidemiology, there should be a warning not to travel to New York City for 3 months, as they have more flu than we do.
Let's all take a deep breath, and calm down. Influenza pandemics sound horrifying and they make us panic. This may be pandemic, but we are very fortunate it is a "garden variety flu." But the news media makes EVERYTHING into a panic.
If you listened to the headlines you would never travel to Mexico (remember, last month you were going to be killed in the streets by drug wars,) you'd never eat peanut butter, spinach, any fresh vegetable, let children play with toys, drive a small car, and you'd probably never leave your house again after you duct-taped all the windows for anthrax.
More people die in Vallarta by falling off a balcony when drunk each year than die from murders, drug wars, viruses, etc. (yes, our balconies should be higher, but let's save that issue for another thread...)
SARS had a higher mortality rate and was still stopped fast enough that no one remembers it now; but it shut down tourism to Toronto for months after the scare. We in Vallarta are already suffering from the bad economy, and a shut down of tourism for months could force many of our favorite establishments to close and put our local friends in economic jeopardy... and this can cause sickness and death from the effects of poverty. There is no rational reason not to travel here now, or in the future, unless something drastic changed.
I suspect that after this weekend when the bars and clubs reopen (in the gay community their closure is the true tragedy! Hell, they stay open during hurricanes!) everyone will see that no one died and this was all a big overreaction. OK, better safe than sorry, but it will be time to move on very soon.
Keep risks in perspective, we live with them every day of our lives. We're talking about a community that's dealt with and suffered through AIDS for God's sake. This is NOTHING. Break out the Gloria Gaynor. I will survive!
A final note, I remember Swine Flu version 1.0 in 1976, when Gerald Ford announced vaccines for everyone and caused a panic, and it was no big deal. The only people who died were those from a bad reaction to the vaccine. So there was a price for overreaction and panic, and we need to be careful that doesn't turn an unfortunate situation into a horrible one.
I am hosting a big (outdoor) party this weekend - called "Die Young and Pretty" (it's a joke, in case that's not obvious). If you are in town, come join us, write me at info(at)casacupula.com for more details. |
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