Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - Well, isn't that always the elusive question. While Puerto Vallarta has not one, but TWO (2) MLS systems, it can still be somewhat difficult to get a handle on what is happening with the market. One real estate company is having a terrible year, and yet another is on top of the world. Somebody who just listed their property has nearly a full-price offer, while another has been waiting for over a year to get their beautiful condo sold. It looks like there are only bottom-feeders, and yet a multi-million dollar estate is put in escrow. What does it all mean?

The real estate market in Puerto Vallarta has at least one thing in common with all other real estate markets in the world ... it is fickle. That's not to say that it doesn't have other more enticing qualities, such as appreciation and stability. But it does mean that it is reliant upon a variety of factors, just like any other market, such as stock fluctuations, health and wellness, divorce, spontaneous desires, financial concerns, lending liquidity, and a myriad of other circumstances, some of which are under our control and others that are not. Certainly one of the things that I've talked about many times is the overall strength of the local market given the lack of real estate indebtedness (i.e., carrying costs). That said, all of these factors make up the real estate market in which we find ourselves.

While statistics are a relatively boring topic, and one that I know most people at least pretend to shy away from, it seems that everybody gravitates to a conversation about real estate stats. It's almost a sport in and of itself - who knows more about real estate and what stats can they quote?

Well, while the AMPI-sponsored MLS is not the end-all/be-all to real estate stats, nor does it boast the most complete information, it is at the very least a strong benchmark for trends, indicators and basic statistical information that is absolutely useable and functional for purposes of understanding more of what is going on in the market.

So let's take a look at some of those stats, shall we? These figures are based on CY 2013 vs. 2012 and cover ALL properties (condos, houses, land, etc., unless otherwise specified).

346 - No, that's not my waist size, although it's getting a little too close for comfort! That's actually the average number of days on the market before a property sells. As I've told my clients many times, just because a property is on the market for more than 90 days here DOESN'T mean that it's stale (unlike in the States or Canada). We get clients all year-round from all parts of the world. When the property hits the market, you may be fortunate and the first clients that walk through the property may fall in love with it. Or you may have to wait for 6 months when that lovely couple from Chicago or Calgary have planned their vacation to Vallarta and they decide it's a lovely day to look at property - and by happenstance, they fall in love with yours. DON'T be discouraged if it takes a little bit of time.

1,193 - Very close, but not QUITE my age. This is the number of listings currently showing on the AMPI MLS. Are there other properties on the market? Sure. You have developer properties that are not in the system, you have "For Sale By Owners", and you have a few additional ones that are in the original MLS Vallarta system. But even if you add all those up, it's nowhere near some of the numbers that I've heard in my travels at parties and restaurants where people talk about 4,000 or 8,000 units on the market. Have some people removed their property because it hadn't sold or because they couldn't get their price? Absolutely. And let's keep it that way. The market is for people who actively and sincerely want to sell their property. Properties in the market need to be priced according to the market. It's a hard reality that we're facing in this buyer's market, but it is what it is. If you're fishing, you shouldn't be in this market. All you are going to catch is yourself.

But let's put this in perspective. According to the AMPI MLS, there's currently just under $700 million in inventory on the market. Are you aware that in 2007/2008, annual sales of real estate reported by the MLS Vallarta (which, as we already know from what was stated above, there had to have been more sales privately added to the mix), the volume for the region was roughly $500 million ... IN SALES ... not on the market, but actual SALES! Can we sell all this inventory in a year and a half? No. We're not in that market. It will take us about three or so years at today's rate of absorption. But given the amount of inventory that was on the market at the time of the worldwide economic recession, some estimate we were looking at over 10 years of inventory. Clearly, the market has changed dramatically, and for the better.

Here's my favorite number so far - 8! Well, you're close ... but it's not the temperature in the lower 48 States, despite current weather conditions. Instead, it's the amount that sellers reduced their price in December. That's the smallest number since before 2011 and it has been on a steady decline. What does that mean? A couple things. First, sellers are becoming much more realistic in their pricing. Thank you sellers for being prepared to listen to the market. And thank you agents for being prepared to wear your armor when convincing the sellers this was the right thing to do. What happens as a result? SALES! When buyers feel that a property is priced accurately, they buy! And buy they have been doing! In the summer of 2012, those sellers that did finally reduce their price, were doing so by more than 15% ... and then of course, they negotiated to get a property sold. The 8% adjustment figure is absolutely a sign that the market is firming up and if there was ever a time to buy it's now!

OK, just a couple more for fun. 21 ... yep, the age we all kinda wish we still were. Well, it's a negative, in more ways than one. Yes, that's the percentage of condo unit decline. Twenty-one percent fewer condos were sold throughout the Bay in 2013 than in 2012. But here's the amazing news ... the average sales price of single-family residences SOARED in 2013 by 116% - THEY MORE THAN DOUBLED! Homes were hit the absolute hardest in the past few years. As a result, there was a bit of a glut and sellers were forced to unload them if they wanted to sell ... some as much as a 50% discount! It seems clear that the buyers who were especially savvy and not married to the concept of having a condo, went for homes. I'm very happy to see that. We certainly sold our fair share and our buyers got incredibly good values, whether they were $300K or $1M-ish.

So what areas are popular? For condos, it seems to be Central South (which includes Alta Vista, Emiliano Zapata, and Olas Altas) and the South Shore, which comes as no surprise (including Amapas, Conchas Chinas, all the way to Mismaloya). For houses, Bucerias and La Cruz were the favorites of buyers, with a full third of all sales preferred in these areas.

And I guess the pregnant question, what will my house or condo ultimately sell for and how long will it take? Well, from the information available, you may get lucky if you have just what somebody is looking for and get your property sold in as little as 90 days. But you should budget a year to be safe. In the meantime, use it and/or rent it to generate some additional cash. As to how much you will get, let's look at the math:

a. Interview 3 agents. Gaining insight from all agents will provide the best mix, even if you go back to your original "First Choice."

b. Don't get starry-eyed by the highest proposed listing price as it may not be realistic. Ask your Realtor to justify the price ... with actual SALES date, not listing info. Remember, "Askin' ain't gettin."

c. Understand your tax obligations. Remember, the law has changed, and NOBODY is FULLY exempt anymore. This can and/or will ultimately affect your bottom line.

d. Price your property accurately and you will reap the rewards of the highest sales price in the shortest period of time. Did I say that already?

Once a property is priced accurately, you can expect to sell it within 5-11% of the asking price (the MLS says a solid 7.8% average off sales price from asking price in 2013). And yes, there have even been FULL PRICE OFFERS this year. Get ready, we may be on the verge of a recovery ... but, shhhhh, don't tell anybody. We don't want other countries to get jealous.

Since 1997, Wayne Franklin and his team at Tropicasa Realty have been a trusted name in Puerto Vallarta real estate. Tropicasa Realty is the region's representative for "The Leading Agents of the World" and with over 100 years of combined experience in real estate, all agents of the company are affiliated with AMPI. Wayne Franklin or any member of his knowledgeable team can be contacted in-person at their Romantic Zone Office - Pulpito 145-A at Olas Altas or in their San Marino Office - San Marino Hotel at Rodolfo Gomez 111-4. While in PV they can be reached at (322) 222-6505 or by calling 866-978-5539 (Toll-Free) from the U.S.

Click HERE to learn more about Tropicasa Realty, or visit tropicasa.com.